Miville Tremblay
@miville.bsky.social
Fellow invité CIRANO, ex central banker, ex financial reporter, regular op-ed contributor in La Presse and Sage Substack. https://www.linkedin.com/in/miville-tremblay-cfa-icd-d-03764535?utm_source=share
The abatement category for the CDN taxonomy is politically skilful: it protects the transition category from the oil and gas lobby, that otherwise would try to squeeze in. Since it will be dicey to implement with the Alberta pipeline deal, it deserves closer scrutiny.
The Fifty Shades of Grey in Canada’s Taxonomy
Miville Tremblay has over 35 years experience in economics and finance, including at the Bank of Canada and La Caisse.
open.substack.com
The great promise of the post-war era was that growth and fairness could advance together. It's breaking down (...) because the nature of growth has changed. The knowledge economy that is generating extraordinary growth requires fewer people to create it and concentrates its rewards in fewer hands.
When Efficiency Eclipses Equality
John Hancock
open.substack.com
Even if there is no fiscal emergency, growth alone is unlikely to bring us back into the green zone of prudence. To invest in our infrastructure, strengthen our defence and preserve our social safety net, we will need a courageous plan: trimming lower-priority spending and raising revenues.
Long-Term Interest Rates Flash a Big Yellow Light
Miville Tremblay has over 35 years experience in economics and finance, including at the Bank of Canada and La Caisse.
open.substack.com
The average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit—from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone—lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once sent onto the battlefield, they survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes. @peterfrankopan.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/25/r...
As the Tide Turns Against Putin, Beware the Drowning Man
Like a struggling swimmer, he may take desperate measures to stay afloat.
foreignpolicy.com
La montée des taux d’intérêt à long terme dans le monde allume un feu jaune, signe qu’une combinaison d’inflation, d’endettement public et de risque politique pourrait provoquer un sérieux accident, si l’on n’y prend pas garde.
Taux d’intérêt | Le feu jaune des taux longs
La montée des taux d’intérêt à long terme dans le monde allume un feu jaune, signe qu’une combinaison d’inflation, d’endettement public et de risque politique pourrait provoquer un sérieux accident, s...
plus.lapresse.ca
This week's POLITICO Magazine cover story: How Mark Carney mastered the ugly art of Canadian politics. The Canadian PM's first year in office has transformed him into a ruthless — and effective — party boss. 🔗 politi.co/4uL9lNG 📷 Markian Lozowchuk/Redux Also in this issue 🧵👇
I had the pleasure to discuss the G7 meeting with two former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Senator Peter Harder and Marta Morgan, in a podcast hosted by Allan Gregg, a former pollster. We’re part of a group of not that old policy wonks that share its wisdom for free on the Sage Substack.
Sage Podcast: Trump Got Managed. China Got Warned. Ukraine Got Respected. AI Got Too Big to Ignore
The G7 was built for a different world, but this year’s gathering showed it’s far from dead yet.
open.substack.com
⚡ NEW REPORT⚡ Clean power can give Canada a competitive edge in the global race for investment in major industrial projects—but only if the country transforms how it plans and builds its electricity systems. ⬇️🧵 climateinstitute.ca/reports/powe...
Powering industrial growth with clean electricity grids
Power Play points to four areas the federal government can take action on to help Canada gain competitive advantage in the race for ...
climateinstitute.ca
The “electricity fairy,” which dazzled visitors at the 1900 Paris World’s Fair, still holds the power to counter global warming. Decarbonizing the economy, after all, requires electrifying it at scale.
The Electricity Fairy Can Still Save the World
Carney’s new climate bargain: more electricity, more growth — and one very uncomfortable pipeline.
open.substack.com
What happens when energy security is threatened? In the 2020s, it means speeding up deployment of renewables and electric devices. 🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
With Steven Guilbeault leaving the Liberal Party, the Justin Trudeau era is officially over. We should probably leave its climate politics in the past as well — and embrace something more effective. #cdnpoli www.nationalobserver.com/2026/06/02/o...
With Guilbeault gone, the Justin Trudeau era is now officially over
Steven Guilbeault's resignation from the Liberal caucus marks the end of a certain approach to doing climate politics. That's not necessarily a bad thing, either.
nationalobserver.com
"Danielle Smith's latest move — a referendum on whether to have another referendum — amounts to less of a detour than a reduced speed zone. It doesn't stop or change the direction of traffic. If anything, it gives separatists another set of advantages." My latest. open.substack.com/pub/drjaredw...
This is Danielle Smith's referendum.
It's her vote to lose. And ours to win.
open.substack.com
The Three-Body Problem states that you cannot predict the future when geopolitics, climate and AI influence each other, as they do. A complex challenge for Canada. Suscribe to Sage on Substack for expert policy analysis; it’s free!
The Three-Body Problem: Geopolitics, Climate Change and AI
Miville Tremblay has over 35 years of experience in economics and finance, including at the Bank of Canada and CPA.
open.substack.com
Buttigieg: "For the leader of this country to make a nakedly genocidal threat against another civilization as if the US was a death star that was going around blowing up civilizations, of course that is a new low ... the whole country is being judged just for tolerating that kind of thing at the WH"
Electric vehicles helped avoid 2.3 million barrels per day in global oil demand last year, according to BloombergNEF. That number is projected to increase to 5.25 million barrels by 2030. ⚡📉 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
My latest newsletter: the deadline for a deal between Ottawa and Alberta on industrial carbon pricing is just weeks away. The oil and gas companies and their political proxies are already trying to tilt the table in their direction — and fudge the facts. www.nationalobserver.com/newsletters/...
The oil companies are lying again
nationalobserver.com
Opinion: In moments of extreme uncertainty, investors usually rush to the safety of US government bonds. But not this time. ft.trib.al/oguIqBN
My latest: because one national unity crisis wasn't enough, Danielle Smith has decided to provoke another one —all, of course, in the name of placating the separatists that run her party. www.nationalobserver.com/2026/02/20/o...
Danielle Smith keeps feeding the beast
If there’s a Pandora’s Box that Alberta's premier hasn’t opened yet, it’s not for a lack of trying.
nationalobserver.com
Mounted on the back of the American tiger, Carney must deliver on his three prongs strategy without being eaten alive, and us along with him. My first contribution to the Sage Substack, published by senior Canadian policy experts. Subscribe to Sage; it’s free. open.substack.com/pub/sagecana...
The fangs of the American tiger
By Miville Tremblay
open.substack.com
The Munich Conference showed the enshittification of American power.
Abe Newman@abenewman.bsky.social · 6mo ago1/Just back from Munich Security Conference. A few takeaways: 1.Old transatlantic alliance based on taken for granted trust is over (one official described it as a funeral). 2.US might talk nice but still is on a collision course w/Europe. 3.US firms stand to lose. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/15/w...
plus.lapresse.ca/screens/a705... Carney est monté sur le dos du tigre à Davos. Il doit maintenant maintenant éviter d’être dévoré (et nous avec!) dans l’exécution périlleuse des trois axes de son plan.
Relations Canada–États-Unis | Les crocs du tigre américain
« Une fois monté sur le tigre, il est difficile d’en descendre », enseigne un proverbe chinois. Sans se faire dévorer, il va sans dire.
plus.lapresse.ca
Trump has imposed sanctions on 8 ICC judges and 3 prosecutors. “The sanctioned ICC staff,” Reuters noted, “now sit on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals list, alongside suspected al Qaeda terrorists, Mexican drug traffickers and North Korean arms dealers.” wapo.st/3MsWi3c
Opinion | Trump has a strongman’s contempt for international law
The president’s indifference to domestic legal constraints is reflected in his actions outside the U.S.
wapo.st
Pourquoi Friedman n’est pas mon mentor intellectuel martincoiteux.com/2026/01/23/p...
Pourquoi Friedman n’est pas mon mentor intellectuel
Photo by Boys in Bristol Photography on Pexels.com À l’époque où j’étais au doctorat, je me souviens d’avoir eu une conversation avec un collègue au sujet du Chili. Le général Augusto Pinochet avai…
martincoiteux.com
Et si les Américains tentent la même manoeuvre avec le Québec, les Péquistes applaudiront-ils? Tout laisse croire que oui. Je suis souverainiste. Mais les temps changent. À ce moment de l'histoire, comment un Québec souverain pourrait-il résister aux assauts impérialistes de nos voisins débridés?
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 6mo agoBessent pushes Albertan independence from Canada: "Albertans are very independent people. There's a rumor they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not. People are talking. People want sovereignty. They want what the US has got."
La stabilité du système financier est à risque si la commercialisation de l’IA progresse plus lentement qu’anticipé par la poussée fulgurante des actions. Une correction brutale pourrait entraîner le marché du crédit privé, lui aussi très étiré.
L’IA, entre miracle et mirage
On dirait de l’argent de Monopoly, tellement les sommes sont faramineuses. Les investissements dans l’IA sont à la mesure du miracle espéré, mais au risque d’un mirage éloigné.
plus.lapresse.ca
À une époque marquée par la rivalité entre les grandes puissances, le Canada choisit d'être pragmatique et fidèle à ses principes. Il choisit de nommer la réalité, d'agir en collaboration et de bâtir ce en quoi nous affirmons croire.
This our 20th annual #TopRisks report at Eurasia Group. It is a bumper crop in 2026 — the most complex and potentially consequential risk environment in memory. It informs leaders around the world in every sector. We hope it helps you make sense of things. www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...
Eurasia Group | The Top Risks of 2026
eurasiagroup.net
