Sitting under the European heat dome, we predict global surface air temperatures of 1.62°C (2026) and 1.71°C (2027) above pre-industrial. 2026 will (more likely than not) be the 2nd hottest year on record, with a chance of becoming the hottest, depending on how El Niño develops.

Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change@wegenercenter.bsky.social · last mo.

2026 liegt der weltweite Temperaturanstieg voraussichtlich bei 1,62°C, 2027 sogar bei 1,71°C über dem vorindustriellen Niveau. Auch der langfristige Temperaturanstieg – ein Mittelwert über einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren – überschreitet bereits ab 2026 das 1,5-Grad-Limit des Pariser Klimaabkommens.

Die globale Erwärmung hat sich signifikant beschleunigt, siehe @derstandard.at zu einer aktuellen Studie des @pik-potsdam.bsky.social 👇

Klimakrise auf dem Gaspedal: Seit 2015 hat sich die globale Erwärmung beschleunigt

Selbst wenn natürliche Schwankungen durch Vulkanismus und Sonnenzyklus herausgerechnet werden, gibt es Indizien dafür, dass die Erde immer schneller immer wärmer wird

derstandard.at

Sad to see that leadership didn’t approve of my suggested post language (assuming since this is what is posted) that I submitted on my last day in May as the social media manager. Allow me share some of our team’s kind words here instead:

NOAA Climate.gov@climate.noaa.gov · last yr.

Our final updates have been posted to the Climate.gov website, and this will be our final post to our social media channels.

"Österreich hat sein CO2-Budget für das 1,5-Grad-Ziel bereits 2022 verbraucht." www.derstandard.at/story/300000...

1,5-Grad-Schwelle wird wohl schon 2028 übertroffen – und die Erwärmung beschleunigt sich

Einer bahnbrechenden neuen Studie zufolge wurde das CO₂-Budget für das 1,5-Grad-Ziel bereits aufgebraucht. In weiten Teilen Österreichs ist es bereits jetzt teilweise um drei Grad wärmer

derstandard.at

Just out: Our new paper addressing urgently needed clarity for the Paris Goals, given the imminence of the 1.5°C-crossing of the long-term global surface temperature anomaly. These results further underscore the need for deep & rapid emission reductions worldwide.

Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change@wegenercenter.bsky.social · last yr.

Anthropogenic global warming is set to exceed 1.5 °C already by 2028 and hence improved quantification of the Paris goals is proposed. This is based on a new benchmark timeseries from 1850 to 2034 that tracks global surface air temperature change. Paper out now in Nature Comms Earth & Environment 👇

#Train2EGU 🚄 #EGU25

European Geosciences Union (EGU)@egu.eu · last yr.

Are you on your way to #EGU25?! Share your #Train2EGU trip and let us know what you see on your travels!! #GreenEGU

The NOAA layoffs aren't just crude, they're a direct attack on US capacity to do climate science by firing highly productive young researchers. @zachlabe.com has an insanely strong publication history, part of the Fresh eyes CMIP team, WMO task teams etc. /1 www.gfdl.noaa.gov/zachary-labe/

Zack Labe@zacklabe.com · last yr.

Last Tuesday, I was set to give a talk on 'climate change in the Northeast' at a retirement home but had to cancel due to hourly job threats. After nearly two weeks of overwhelming uncertainty, today it happened. I was fired from my dream of working at NOAA. I'm so sorry to everyone also affected.

Level of global warmth in 2023/24 can only be explained by an acceleration of human caused #climate change based on @ioppublishing.bsky.social statistical analysis of multiple drivers: doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Now that everyone has their annual temperature data out, here is a quick summary across groups. In addition to record warmth in every dataset, it's the first year where most estimates are at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) warmer than the 1850-1900 baseline. berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe... 🧪

The data is in. 2024 was the warmest year on record, and probably in the whole of human history – about 1.6°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. More than 1 billion individual thermometer measurements, made by thousands of people over many decades, have been condensed into a single number.

The Global Climate Highlights 2024 report is now online. Delve in the analysis and access all the charts, information, and data on temperature, sea ice, precipitation, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Explore the data that defined 2024: https://bit.ly/40kQpcz #C3S #GCH2024

2024 was the first year above 1.5°C. This does not mean that the 1.5°C level has been broken through. What remains to be seen is whether this is a continuation of 2023's trend, and what the causes are. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Hottest year on record sent planet past 1.5C of heating for first time in 2024

Highest recorded temperatures supercharged extreme weather – with worse to come, EU data shows

theguardian.com

@kleinezeitung.at follow-up zu den 1.6+°C (und rund doppelt so viel in Ö), insb. interessant re. "Technologieoffenheit" etc... www.kleinezeitung.at/meinung/denk...

Moritz Pichler@moritzpichler.bsky.social · 2y ago

[dramatic first bluesky post] Gottfried Kirchengast and I here at the @wegenercenter.bsky.social have predicted that the global annual average 2-metre air temperature will be (1.62 +/- 0.05)°C above the pre-industrial level. Some additional thoughts:

Die globale Temperatur in den Messdaten von 5 Instituten verglichen mit den Projektionen von Klimamodellen laut #IPCC-Bericht (schwarz, Unsicherheit grau). 2024 ist das wärmste Jahr seit Beginn der Messungen; nach paläoklimatischen Daten wahrscheinlich sogar seit 120.000 Jahren.

IATA projects a 6% increase in air passengers in 2025 ! Not one single word on environmental impact. Except in the cost section. Cost of carbon credits and « sustainable «  fuel will be about 0.5% of revenues 🤬 www.iata.org/en/pressroom...

Strengthened Profitability Expected in 2025 Even as Supply Chain Issues Persist

IATA announced its financial outlook for the global airline industry in 2025, which shows a slight strengthening of profitability amid ongoing cost and supply chain challenges.

iata.org

Very strongly related to the whole surface temperature issue:

Copernicus ECMWF@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 2y ago

Did you miss the C3S Climate Bulletin? 🌡️ After November data, 2024 is virtually certain to become the warmest year on record. ❄️ Antarctic sea ice extent: Record low for November, 10% below average Read the summary: climate.copernicus.eu/2024-track-b... #CopernicusClimate #C3S

[dramatic first bluesky post] Gottfried Kirchengast and I here at the @wegenercenter.bsky.social have predicted that the global annual average 2-metre air temperature will be (1.62 +/- 0.05)°C above the pre-industrial level. Some additional thoughts:

Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change@wegenercenter.bsky.social · 2y ago

"Die globale bodennahe Lufttemperatur wird 2024 um 1,62 Grad Celsius – plus/minus 0,05 Grad Schwankungsbreite – im Vergleich zum vorindustriellen Niveau ansteigen": Gottfried Kirchengast & @moritzpichler.bsky.social auf APA Science 👇