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Michal Ovádek

@movadek.bsky.social

Lecturer in European Institutions, Politics and Policy at University College London https://michalovadek.github.io/

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Vicente Valentim@valentimvicente.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Our department has three calls for tenure track positions. IE is a fast growing group of scholars doing top-notch work, which offers very attractive conditions in a great European city. If you are looking for an academic job in Europe, definitely do consider applying.

IE Political Science Department@iepolisci.bsky.social · 2mo ago

We are hiring! We have 3 tenure track positions open: - Comparative Politics: apply.interfolio.com/188149 - International Relations: apply.interfolio.com/188150 - Political Economy: apply.interfolio.com/188151 All jobs have deadlines Oct 5th. Please help spread the word to potential candidates.

Yiqing Xu@yiqingxu.bsky.social · 2mo ago

1/ Happy to share that "Factorial Difference-in-Differences" (FDID), with Anqi Zhao and @pengding00 , is out in JASA - ACS. doi.org/10.1080/0162... It has been a truly thrilling experience working with Anqi and Peng.

Factorial Difference-in-Differences

We formulate factorial difference-in-differences (FDID), a research design that extends canonical difference-in-differences (DID) to settings in which an event affects all units. In many panel data...

doi.org

Michal Ovádek@movadek.bsky.social · 3mo ago

once again shocked to discover that a complex phenomenon dozens of scientists around the world spend a lot of time and effort studying does not, in fact, neatly reduce to a bivariate plot in the Financial Times. But maybe the next one will

Anton Strezhnev@astrezh.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I don't want to wade too much into this, but the chart going around from that FT birth rates article raised my "making causal claims from time series data" alarm. Compare the figure in the article with the raw TFR data from 1960 onward.

Michal Ovádek@movadek.bsky.social · 3mo ago

My hunch is there is still some low-hanging fruit, the kind of stuff where you burn half a million tokens on a bug that would take 3 seconds of brain time to fix. But the long term economic viability of large-scale AI deployment probably depends on wider, hitherto unrealized efficiency gains.

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com · 3mo ago

AI companies currently subsidize their users $3 to $25 for every dollar of subscription. As a result, users are very sensitive to *any* price or rate limit changes, and have no idea what their actual token burn is. Token-based billing will be lethal at scale. www.wheresyoured.at/premium-what...

So, the current “value” of AI software is mostly driven by the deception of subsidized monthly subscriptions, and even those that have made changes to their business models to improve their margins are still losing money. For example, in October 2025, Augment Code moved everybody to a new “credits” based model from a requests-based one, citing one user that was approaching $15,000 in costs a month on its $250-a-month plan. Even then, Augment Code still sold a money-losing product. Users get 40,000 “credits” that still obfuscate their actual value. Augment gives an example of one task on Claude Opus 4.6 taking up 488 credits, but a “task” could mean anything, and the credit-based system only exists to mask how much you’re actually spending. It turns out the reason is because, per Kilocode, Augment appears to be charging anywhere from 2x to 5x the cost of the actual tokens being burned. The reason that somebody like Augment Code doesn’t want to charge the actual token rates — despite effectively choosing to do so! — is that the moment you go token-based, your users suddenly have to judge your product based on its actual merits. By obfuscating costs using “credits,” Augment Code is attempting to con users into believing they’re getting more for their money than they are. The initial reaction was extremely negative, and now Augment’s Subreddit is a bit of a ghost town, with one user complaining about how arbitrarily Augment burns through credits and another complaining about how buggy the product is.
Tommaso Pavone@tommasopavone.bsky.social · 3mo ago

𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 “𝗶𝗻𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲” 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀? A few months back @movadek.bsky.social & I promised we would try to find out. 𝗪𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝗹𝗼𝘃𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗮: tinyurl.com/2add6c2a (1/7)

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Bloomberg Law@bloomberglaw.com · 3mo ago

Former clerks to the late Justice Antonin Scalia argued in nearly three dozen cases—or 52% of the docket— before the US Supreme Court this term, far more than clerks from any other chambers.

Scalia Clerks Argued in Half the Supreme Court Cases This Term

Former clerks to the late Justice Antonin Scalia argued in nearly three dozen cases—or 52% of the docket— before the US Supreme Court this term, far more than clerks from any other chambers.

bit.ly

Michal Ovádek@movadek.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I recently published my book on institutional contestation in the EU. Not only is the finished product free to access and read (academic.oup.com/book/61769), I am now also releasing all the data and code behind the book on Github: github.com/michalovadek...

Contested Competences in the European Union: The Law and Politics of Institutional Choice

Abstract. What role do rules really play in shaping the behaviour of legislative actors? In theory, competences and procedures provide a framework within w

academic.oup.com

Jakub Jaraczewski@jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈⚖️🇭🇺 A legal earthquake - CJEU finds Hungary to have violated EU law on multiple counts with its anti-LGBT+ legislation (as expected) but also for the first time in history, in an EU law-reshaping precedent, finds Hungary to violate Art 2 TEU in a self-standing manner.

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Juraj Medzihorsky@medzihorsky.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Mr Orbán's Fidesz built itself an electoral system that boosted it until it didn't. In 2014, the first year under the system, Fidesz-KDNP won a ⅔ majority with 27% of the registered voters. Now, with 30% of registered voters, it is on track to 29% of the seats. __ Made in base R with extrafont

A chart showing the share that Fidesz-led electoral lists won in % of votes (multi-member constituency or party list), of registered voters, and of seats.