Let us all make sure we give thanks for the amazing work from @notmrtibbs.com and his team during HOF SZN.
Matt Dean
@mwwdean.bsky.social
Husband. Father. Tennis. MLB. Poker. Toys. DLBCL.
Very excited for the HOF to gain two new members tonight! Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social whose model crushed mine this year - I'll be making some tweaks for 2027!
Final projection for tonight. Excited to see who joins the HOF! @notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social
Feeling better about my model as more votes roll in. Small but meaningful upward adjustment for Andruw Jones from my last projection. Just one week before the announcement! Thanks as always to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social.
Matt has been coming for @sardell.bsky.social's HOF Projections crown for a couple of years now and has done nice work. In fact, last year Matt narrowly beat Jason's predictions going by RMSE, though Jason still had the lowest average and median error. Here are Matt's latest projections for 2026:
Matt Dean@mwwdean.bsky.social · 7mo agoI'm definitely struggling projecting this year more than ever due to the influx of new voters. Taking a stab here after 123 votes recorded in the tracker. Thanks again to @notmrtibbs.com and the Tracker Team! Will likely wait until ~175-200 votes before next update as I'll be out of town for a bit.
I'm definitely struggling projecting this year more than ever due to the influx of new voters. Taking a stab here after 123 votes recorded in the tracker. Thanks again to @notmrtibbs.com and the Tracker Team! Will likely wait until ~175-200 votes before next update as I'll be out of town for a bit.
@notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social I am NOT confident in the model. 1) It is super early with just 71 votes so far 2) LOTS of new voters this year. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux, Anthony Calamis and Adam Dore. Next update around ~125 votes. Flame away!
By a hair, @mwwdean.bsky.social had the best #HOF predictions this year (going by RMSE)! However, career GOAT @sardell.bsky.social had the lowest average & median error.
@notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social There may be a few straggler ballots coming but this is as good a time as any to post final predictions for the MLB Hall of Fame. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his team for all the hard work. Makes it so much fun!
Exciting day as we all wait for the MLB Hall of Fame announcement! I'll post final projection at 5:30 EST.
@notmrtibbs.com @baseballot.bsky.social Thanks as always to Ryan Thibodaux and his team as they do 99% of the work that goes into my model. Here are my projections of the final MLB Hall of Fame vote after 92 votes have been posted.
