Navid

@navidi.bsky.social

Sir, I perceive you are a vile Whig

Iranian big men, strong men, crying, saying, "Mr President please, please stop bombing us from your beautiful White House Ballroom that's under budget and ahead of schedule even though it should have been built in 2020 if it weren't for crooked Hillary stealing the election for Joe Biden."

The problem with this argument is that it defines liberalism as classical liberalism and leaves socialism as something entirely vague. The concept of welfare spending is not something socialism can claim as its antithesis to capitalism.

ryan cooper@ryanlcooper.com · 3mo ago

"The liberal tradition and the socialist tradition are sisters, and daughters of the Enlightenment. A project that sought to undermine entrenched power, and sought to assert that power fundamentally belongs to the people." www.liberalcurrents.com/socialism-an...

Funny, though unsurprising, that Trump's issue isn't Iran running a protection racket but that he's being excluded from the racket. The ceasefire is easier to understand if you conceptualise the process not as geopolitical competition but as a shakedown attempt between feuding crime syndicates

Bild

The United States was undefeated in battle but has been stabbed in the back by 𝚂̶𝚘̶𝚌̶𝚒̶𝚊̶𝚕̶𝚒̶𝚜̶𝚝̶𝚜̶,̶ ̶𝙻̶𝚒̶𝚋̶𝚎̶𝚛̶𝚊̶𝚕̶𝚜̶,̶ ̶𝙹̶𝚎̶𝚠̶𝚜̶ Omanis

You'd think people would have learned by how hard they got rug pulled by the negotiations charade in February to not fall for it again. The war is going to last for at least a few weeks more and Trump will seize Kharg island by the end of this week, mark my words

A lot of the bad takes rn are overcorrections from the GWOT. Guerrillas can go underground and focus on the occasional raid, which renders individuals somewhat replaceable. The Iranian regime has a nation to run; there are laws to enforce, payrolls to disburse, and planning meetings to attend

Would be very funny if after the war they'll announce Mojtaba was killed by an Israeli strike on its last day and make him some sort of mythical martyr of the war or something

There is a lot of evidence accumulated since 2023 if not earlier indicating that the Iranian leadership is capable of some quite profound miscalculations in relation to the US and Israel. Just because the US is led by a delusional sociopath does not mean its opponents are always master strategists.

Silverman on Security@silvermansecurity.bsky.social · 5mo ago

This is 100% incorrect. They know exactly who they're dealing with in Trump & his natsec team. They are highly educated, they read, watch, & listen to our news. This assumes they are & treats them as if they were naifs.

The discussions of regime stability keep focusing on the wrong questions, nobody serious actually expected quick political disintegration! The relevant point of analysis is how this will leave the regime's ability to deal with mass unrest and security deterioration in the coming weeks and months

ChrisO_wiki@chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 5mo ago

1/ News that the Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected highlights its unusual governing structure as a 'polydictatorship'. In many ways, it was designed from the ground up to resist regime change. ⬇️ x.com/ErinBanco/st...

The statistic for this war I'd actually be most interested in seeing tracked is not military equipment destroyed but work delinquincy rates for mid-level regime officials

I think people are getting their timeline for when, if at all, we should expect to see major unrest mixed up. The IR will be weakest right around the culmination of the strike campaign, there is no reason to move before that. Both Bibi and RP are also explicitly messaging "stand back and stand by"

The entire global petrochem market right now rests on the internal battle between Artesh Major Sahakian and the intrusive thought that the Sangachal terminal is just sitting there looking submissive and Shahed-able.

To survive US and Israeli airpower the IRGC and Artesh land forces need to stay dispersed. To counter Kurdish or Balochi incursions they will have to concentrate forces. How do you say Kobayashi Maru in Iranian?