Nell Henderson
@nellhenderson.bsky.social
Econ nerd, Fed obsessive, Dodgers fan, recovering journalist (Ex-Econ Editor WaPo, WSJ), McKinsey alum, now Peterson Institute for International Economics VP Publishing, among other things. Opinions my own etc.
Warsh's decision to provide no interest rate guidance and scant insight into how he reacts to data has left economists in a place where they doubt a rate hike will happen Wednesday but they can't rule it out. I guess we'll see how durable it is to make policy this way.
Latest must-read from PIIE's Michael Clemens! A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy
The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...
piie.com
Latest important research from PIIE's Michael Clemens: Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans
The US government has recently enacted the largest shift in immigration policy since 1924. As officials restrict unauthorized immigration, they face a stark choice: create offsetting lawful channels f...
piie.com
America's been arguing over trade for more than 250 years www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
America's been arguing over trade for more than 250 years
As the United States marks the 250th anniversary of declaring its independence from Britain, Americans continue a tradition begun even longer ago: debating trade and tariffs. In recent years, disagree...
piie.com
China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize www.piie.com/research/pii...
China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize
China's manufacturing trade surplus and export strength, particularly in low-skill-intensive sectors such as apparel, footwear, and leather is producing a "China Squeeze"—limiting the traditional path...
piie.com
PIIE's Michael Clemens explains how the US government is driving away international students at a long-term economic cost www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The US is driving away international students at a long-term economic cost
For generations, students from around the world have fueled universities in the United States, their top destination by far. Those students don't just sustain a $43 billion export industry in higher e...
piie.com
Latest must-read from PIIE's Michael Clemens --Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growth (Spoiler alert: the effect is bad) www.piie.com/publications...
Class dismissed: The effect of international student exclusion on the US STEM workforce and economic growth
Restrictive US government policies since 2025 have reduced international student enrollment in US universities and made it harder for foreign graduates to work in the United States. This shift, if sus...
piie.com
Latest Must Read from PIIE's Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld: Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence www.piie.com/publications...
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence
Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...
piie.com
New from PIIE: Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets www.piie.com/research/pii...
Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets
This year's Middle East war has driven up energy prices, disrupting economic activity around the world. If these effects persist for a year, they will slow global growth, hurting emerging economies mo...
piie.com
Important new findings from PIIE's Mary Lovely and Christine Wan: Details of US so-called reciprocal trade deals reveal they are built to constrain China's economically www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
US reciprocal trade deals built to push America's trade partners away from China
When the Trump administration imposed so-called "reciprocal," country-specific tariff rates in April 2025, it made clear that the measures were intended not only to protect US industry but also as neg...
piie.com
Latest must-read from PIIE's McKibbin, Noland! Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war: slower growth and higher inflation hitting emerging markets harder than advanced economies www.piie.com/publications...
Global economic implications of the 2026 Middle East war
piie.com
Congrats Chad Bown (PIIE) and Soumaya Keyenes (FT) on the great book review from Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman! paulkrugman.substack.com/p/how-to-win...
How to Win a Trade War
Tariffs and export controls and China shocks, oh my
paulkrugman.substack.com
The latest from Bown and Keynes: Trump and Xi Would Need Personality Transplants to Get This Deal Done www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/o...
Opinion | Trump and Xi Would Need Personality Transplants to Get This Deal Done
nytimes.com
Must See TV! www.linkedin.com/posts/chad-b...
Trump-Xi Summit: IS THE U.S. PRESIDENT EQUIPPED TO WIN THIS TRADE WAR? Thanks to Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz for the invitation to join Bloomberg News and for asking the key question. My answer... ...
Trump-Xi Summit: IS THE U.S. PRESIDENT EQUIPPED TO WIN THIS TRADE WAR? Thanks to Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz for the invitation to join Bloomberg News and for asking the key question. My answer...
linkedin.com
Latest must-read from PIIE's Jason Furman on Fed Chair Jay Powell: He Was Good at Steering the Fed, but He Was a Genius at Ignoring Trump’s Threats www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/o...
Opinion | He Was Good at Steering the Fed, but He Was a Genius at Ignoring Trump’s Threats
nytimes.com
Boston Fed Prez Collins flags rate-hike scenario as inflation risks rise, per Timiraos www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Boston Fed’s Collins Flags Rate-Hike Scenario as Inflation Risks Tilt Higher
In an interview, the Fed official said she is watching how households’ inflation expectations have drifted higher.
wsj.com
Hot off the presses, by PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld et al, "Steering Structural Change" mitpress.mit.edu/978026205191...
Steering Structural Change
Steering Structural Change explores looming transformations that both advanced and developing economies face as rising geopolitical tensions, accelerating cl...
mitpress.mit.edu
PIIE'S Alan Wm. Wolff explains : Why do Trump's tariffs have such staying power? www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Why do Trump's tariffs have such staying power?
Get used to President Donald Trump's comprehensive tariffs. Though the president's across-the-board tariffs imposed under his emergency powers were invalidated by the Supreme Court in February, the ne...
piie.com
Nerd-Alert! News about former PIIE fellow Mark Carney:
More from PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld. See Chapt. 4, "Global Imbalances Redux" in CEPR's latest Paris Report 4: cepr.org/publications...
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...
piie.com
Latest Must Read from PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld: Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...
piie.com
2025 was *a year* Our 2025 Annual Report is now live! Check out highlights from one of our busiest years ever:
Annual Report 2025
Learn about PIIE's accomplishments in 2025 and information on funding.
piie.com
The very awesome @aimewilliams.bsky.social joins the podcast this week to explain what has happened since Trump’s sweeping April 2, 2025 TARIFF announcement, including SURPRISES buried in the weeds of US import and export data, as well what comes next after that momentous SUPREME COURT decision.
Trade Talks Podcast@trade--talks.bsky.social · 5mo agoHas it only been one year??? (Also, hi. Trade Talks is back)
Has it only been one year??? (Also, hi. Trade Talks is back)
208. It's been one year since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs
Aime Williams joins to help explain what has happened since President Trump’s sweeping April 2, 2025 tariff announcement.
tradetalkspodcast.com
Buy one. If only out of pity. And check out @soumayakeynes.ft.com and her trade songs sometime too......
Chad P. Bown@chadpbown.com · 5mo agoHow to Win a Trade War and....COFFEE? If you too like coffee, @barnesandnoble.com has a special 25% off deal on pre-orders with the code PREORDER25. The deal ends TODAY, so pre-order How to Win a Trade War now! 📚 👉 www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-win... #BNPreorder
🤓 BUCKET LIST 🤓 'HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR' (my forthcoming book with the amazing @soumayakeynes.ft.com) is part of a New Year's Day sale thingie! Barnes & Noble Premium & Rewards Members get 25% off pre-orders Dec 30-Jan 1 only #BNPreorder Instructions Here: www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-win...
NOW: @kclausing.bsky.social is speaking at @whitehouse.senate.gov's Environment and Public Works Committee spotlight forum on the many ways climate change is contributing to the affordability crisis. Read her prepared remarks: www.piie.com/commentary/t... Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/oegvS1R...
Petrochemical firm owners concentrate among corporations, geographically in China, the US, & Saudi Arabia—but ownership ≠ control. Chinese & other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors have limited control from passive investments. Saudi Arabia fully controls its investments.
Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?
Petrochemicals—used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines—are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energ...
piie.com
Latest must-read from PIIE's Chad P. Bown: Negotiating a win-win end to the lose-lose US-China trade war over technology and critical minerals www.piie.com/publications...
Negotiating a win-win end to the lose-lose US-China trade war over technology and critical minerals
The United States and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals and technology. A series of escalatory tariffs and export restrictions led to...
piie.com