No Privacy 🅰️nymore

@no-privacy.bsky.social

I enjoy many things in life but typically use social media to discuss investments. Comments are my personal thoughts and not financial advice.

Followup on comments on $OPEN. The addition to R2K in June didn't play out as I expected price wise. All high beta names got crushed. Listening to the Q2 call now. Kaz is absolutely right that having a very low cost mortgage product is super helpful. Cut out as many costs as possible.

No Privacy 🅰️nymore@no-privacy.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I have not posted much about $OPEN but I think it is likely to make a decent move higher in the next month or months to come. Why do I say this? 1 they likely to get added back to the R2K in the 3rd week of June. That would require 60-70 million shares to be purchased by passive funds.

Daily chart of $OPEN showing 5 consecutive closes below the daily Bollinger Bands.

Since this trade was posted, $ASTS is up ~30% and the October $50 calls are up 100%. NFA of course but HECK YEAH! Feels great to time a trade like this. I think it can really run through September when I will look to close the position and convert the calls back into shares (the more the merrier!).

No Privacy 🅰️nymore@no-privacy.bsky.social · last wk.

Sometimes when you WANT to buy more shares but don't have free cash you can convert shares into In the money calls. This is NOT financial advice. However I converted 1,000 shares into 40 contracts (4,000 share equivalent) of the Oct 2026 $50 calls. Break even on the calls is $62.30. $ASTS

Orders showing the sale of 1,000 shares and the purchase of 40 contracts of the October $50 in-the-money (ITM) calls. The breakeven price is $62.30 on this transaction.

I’m not a big fan of $META however WhatsApp is incredibly widely used globally for low cost messaging and voice communication. This LinkedIn post describes the collaboration with $ASTS. Optimized software for NTN connections is a great way to keep costs low and support more simultaneous users.

LinkedIn post description of detailed meetings between Meta’s WhatsApp team and AST.

Markets love to get people really bearish and then rip higher. At the moment the $SPY just did that. Closing well below the lower daily BB and today almost reaching the top of the BB (not quite). The SP500 is not reflective of the high beta selloff of July but I think it can go higher.

Daily chart of the S&P500 futures contract. $SPX. Markets looked to be selling off but then ripped higher.

For anyone invested in $ASTS, it is important to keep perspective on how the market will perceive the value of the constellation. We are getting VERY close to the time when it is obvious that they are manufacturing and launching at scale. Risk is greatly reduced. Good times coming! 🚀

Starlink Milestones and valuation of time. Shows $ASTS status relative to the status of Starlink. It is about to increase the valuation dramatically.

When people invest with too much leverage they become forced sellers. Selling at prices well below what price you might think is a logical price. Forced selling by others is an opportunity for well positioned buyers. I wish I had more hedges in place but fortunately I was not using much leverage.

Certainly saw this happening across X. Closer to a bottom? Perhaps: hedge funds degrossing, Korean retail deleveraging and the news of Situational's liquidations + drawdown.

The insanely large drops in high beta names in the last 2 months (July in particular) caused some really great risk/reward opportunities if you follow companies like $PCT and $ASTS closely. In both cases, they traded under the lower daily BB. Divergence between lower lows and higher RSI. ✅👍

Daily chart of $PCT. Made a lower low on a higher RSI. Shorts were pressing the position relentlessly but need to cover if they want to lock in gains. That can drive the price up quickly to fill gaps in the chart above. Similar pattern for $ASTS. Big open gap in the chart above. Made a new lower low on a higher RSI.

Ahead of the Fed decision on rates I think it is interesting to see that $OPEN is continuing to acquire houses at a much higher rate than recent years. Typically buying in Q3 would be reduced as the optimal selling periods are Q1 and Q2. I believe the "Cash Now / More Later" program is the 🗝️.

Chart from accountable.opendoor.com showing the number of houses under contract to buy each week. Current value is 671 for the week of July 28th 2026.

I think the GOP controlled red states would be wise to reject this type of political action. If the Democrats gain control of all 3 branches of Gov they could pass legislation that keeps more federal tax dollars in blue states that currently subsidize red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/07...

Trump overrode his own agencies to deny four Democratic disaster requests

President Donald Trump cast aside bipartisan precedent when he rejected eligible disaster requests from four blue states.

politico.com

Pay attention to Reformed_Trader. Everyone says they want to buy low and sell high but its hard to buy when others are 🤮. $ASTS. The news of a launch on August 5th included details that the next batch of 3 satellites is about ready to ship. Manufacturing tempo is rolling now!

It's time!  "Everyone wants to buy low and sell high until its time to buy low"