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Olaf Borghi

@olafborghi.com

Researching the political mind and how political beliefs develop 🧠 Doctoral candidate in the MSCA Network ippad.eu & Centre for the Politics of Feelings - @rhulpsychology.bsky.social 👥 Previously research assistant @univie.ac.at 🐕

34 Posts450 Follower1414 Folgt
Olaf Borghi@olafborghi.com · 9mo ago

What a week at the IP-PAD meeting in Amsterdam, where our doctoral network met for training and a conference on youth politics!! I also presented a poster on my recent work on young people's future anxiety and political views (read more here: shorturl.at/Rpc0y)! Super grateful for the fun time! :)

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Olaf Borghi@olafborghi.com · 11mo ago

marginaleffects is one of my favourite R packages and this is such a great paper!! extremely recommended, alongside all other papers from the two authors and also the amazing and free Model to Meaning book marginaleffects.com

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 12mo ago

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Olaf Borghi@olafborghi.com · last yr.

This is incredible work, such an insanely cool paper and findings! Quite alarming that "[post-training and prompting methods that] increased AI persuasiveness [...] also systematically decreased factual accuracy"

Kobi Hackenburg@kobihackenburg.bsky.social · last yr.

Today (w/ @ox.ac.uk @stanford @MIT @LSE) we’re sharing the results of the largest AI persuasion experiments to date: 76k participants, 19  LLMs, 707 political issues. We examine “levers” of AI persuasion: model scale, post-training, prompting, personalization, & more!  🧵:

Leonardo Carella@leonardocarella.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm glad someone did basic due diligence on the wolf paper. (Although - worth noting - PNAS has an impact factor of 9 and Electoral Studies an impact factor of 2: a familiar pattern with replications of fundamentally flawed findings.) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting

The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…

sciencedirect.com

Manos Tsakiris@mtsakiris.bsky.social · last yr.

That’s the correct link : www.jobs.london.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Post-doctoral Fellow (Political Psychology/Political Science/ Social-Affective Neuroscience) at the Centre for the Politics of Feelings :London Senate House

jobs.london.ac.uk

Manos Tsakiris@mtsakiris.bsky.social · last yr.

Job alert! We are recruiting at the Centre for the Politics of Feelings (www.politics-of-feelings.com) for a post-doc interested in emotions & politics. A focus on the relation between health & politics is highly desirable. Info: jobs.london.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai... Deadline 11th July. Please share!

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · last yr.

To re-up this, this also applies to latent growth curve models 😭 😭 😭 No, I'm afraid you cannot solve a fundamental identification problem by applying a latent growth curve model.

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · last yr.

PSA: Don’t trust anyone who tells you that you can identify age or period or cohort effects simply by applying the right statistical model to the right type of data. This is fundamentally misunderstanding the nature of the age-period-cohort problem!>

Arrested Development meme. People have suggested empirically solving the APC problem just by applying the right model to the right data Well did it work for those people Not, it never does, I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but... ...but it might work for us.
Dr Lucy Foulkes@lucyfoulkes.bsky.social · last yr.

I’m in the Guardian today, arguing that we should stop them all-class mental health lessons in schools I've thought very carefully about ‘going public’ with this, because it's a sensitive argument to make, especially in the face of so many young people struggling. (cont 🧵) tinyurl.com/vun92cz7

Mental-health lessons in schools sound like a great idea. The trouble is, they don’t work | Lucy Foulkes

All-class therapy sessions don’t help, and may even make matters worse. The evidence shows we need different solutions, says Dr Lucy Foulkes, an academic psychologist at Oxford University

theguardian.com

SCAN Unit@scanunit.bsky.social · last yr.

🔎 We are looking for collaborators for our new manylabs looking at the effects of extreme heat on human cognition and well-being across the globe 🌍 See below for more information and sign up if you’re interested 👇🏼

Kim Doell@kimdoell.bsky.social · last yr.

🌍 We are launching a new #ManyLabs!!! Join the Heat & Cognition project! We're studying how extreme heat affects human thinking, social behavior & well-being — globally. Contribute & co-author: 🔗 Info: heatandmind.wordpress.com 📋 Sign up: www.soscisurvey.de/HeatandCogni... #EnvironmentalPsychology

Eric W. Bridgeford, Ph.D.@ericwbridgeford.bsky.social · last yr.

See our new preprint focused on causal thinking for data analysis in neuroscience #causal #neuroscience #neuroimaging #datascience #poldracklab with Brian Caffo, Maya Mathur, and @russpoldrack.bsky.social (1/4) arxiv.org/abs/2503.10710

How causal perspectives can inform problems in computational neuroscience

Over the past two decades, considerable strides have been made in advancing neuroscience techniques, yet the translation of these advancements into clinically relevant insights for human mental health...

arxiv.org

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · last yr.

In related news, maybe you should stop directly messing around with coefficients in the first place! Just talked to a student who was told by their advisor that they should use a continuous scale for a categorical thing because otherwise “the analyses get too complicated.”>

✨ Unleash your inner stats sparkle ✨ with this very non-technical introduction to marginal effects

Let’s admit right away that “marginal effects” doesn’t sound like the most sexy topic. I’m not saying that to further marginalize these poor effects. It’s just that statistics, in and of itself, barel...

the100.ci

Andrew Heiss@andrew.heiss.phd · last yr.

writing another review where I point to the Table 2 Fallacy (doi.org/10.1093/aje/... and doi.org/10.1017/psrm...) and say stop interpreting every single coefficient

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · last yr.

New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words! If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance. www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...

Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...

the100.ci

Olaf Borghi@olafborghi.com · last yr.

In politics, people are not always truth seekers. Often, we reach conclusions because they fit with preferred political narratives: we are biased by ideological motivations. But are some people better equipped to overcome such bias than others? 🚨 Find out in the first pre-print from my PhD 🚨

Cheng-Yu Hsieh@cyhsieh.bsky.social · last yr.

1st post here! Excited to share this work with Marelli & @kathyrastle.bsky.social. We've found readers "routinely" combine constituent meanings for Chinese compound meaning, despite variability in constituent meaning and word structure, even when they're not asked to. See threads👇 for more details:

Compositional processing in the recognition of Chinese compounds: Behavioural and computational studies - Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

Recent research has shown that the compositional meaning of a compound is routinely constructed by combining meanings of constituents. However, this body of research has focused primarily on Germanic ...

doi.org

LSE Impact@lseimpactblog.bsky.social · last yr.

👀ICYMI: “We … [used] … to make our acceptance those articles that we felt would make a contribution to the international literature. Now our basis for rejection is often ‘I don’t think this paper is going to be cited’.” #AcWri #Citations #ResearchCulture

Does authorship mean anything when academic papers are simply citable tokens?

The bibliometric infrastructure of citations has become an inescapable organising feature of academic life. Drawing on a range of evidence of the use and misuse of citations data, Stuart Macdonald …

blogs.lse.ac.uk