Secular Dems of Pennsylvania

@paseculardems.bsky.social

Keep religion out of politics. Want to help us build a community that supports science-based governance? Join up and learn more here: https://seculardems.org/pa-secular-dems/

DOJ was due in court Friday to defend its list of 20,000 California voters it called likely noncitizens. It bailed instead Judge Carter closed the case today: “The right to vote is sacred. So, too, is trust in our democracy.” We couldn't agree more Hearing MOOT. Case CLOSED👇 -TN

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The DCCC just emailed me. It’s bad news guys. They're "nearly broke" after taking out "a $25 million line of credit," and they need me to "refill" their "empty bank accounts." I wonder if paying ~75% of what’s raised by these emails to fundraising vendors has something to do with it?

The DCCC raised $71 million in grassroots gifts and kept $17 million. Stacked bar chart of the money the DCCC raised from individual gifts under $2,000 in each election cycle from 2016 to 2026, with each bar split into fundraising costs (dark blue) and what was left over (light blue):

2016: $75M raised, $16M spent on fundraising, $59M left over.
2018: $116M raised, $54M spent, $63M left over.
2020: $156M raised, $54M spent, $101M left over.
2022: $145M raised, $67M spent, $78M left over.
2024: $93M raised, $58M spent, $35M left over.
2026: $71M raised, $54M spent, $17M left over.

Fundraising costs have stayed between $54M and $67M since 2018, while the amount raised has fallen since 2020, so what’s left over shrank from $101M to $17M. The 2026 cycle is not yet complete.

"Now We Act" – a new series in conversation with American elected officials on "Thinking About..." We will talk about the chance the Democrats have to effect a political and a systemic realignment – laying foundations for policies that will make daily life more prosperous, rewarding, and free.

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Live conversations
Now What? Now we act.
Timothy Snyder & Guests
Nov 6 + Nov 9
Watch Live: snyder.substack.com
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01/03Graphics card with headshots of elected officials participating in the conversation.
Text:
Now what? Now we act.
Timothy Snyder & Guests
Friday, Nov 6
All Times Eastern
Rep. Greg Casar, 12:00pm
Sen. Maggie Hassan, 1:30pm
Rep. Madeleine Dean, 3:00pm
Rep. Ro Khanna, 3:45pm


Watch Live: snyder.substack.com
More guests may be announced.
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02/03Graphics card with headshots of elected officials participating in the conversation.
Text:
Now what? Now we act.
Timothy Snyder & Guests
Monday, Nov 9
All Times Eastern
Sen. Andy Kim, 10:00am
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, 10:45am
Rep. Jim Himes, 11:30am
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, 4:45pm

Watch Live: snyder.substack.com
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03/03

If you can’t see that re-electing Chuck Schumer as majority leader is the functional equivalent of backing Joe Biden’s re-election bid, I don’t know what to tell you. People voted for change. Give it to them.

I just want to say for anyone that has followed me for years: you know I've been repeatedly saying that anti-trans ads fail. That they do not have an impact. That voters don't care about trans issues and do not vote on them, and that saturating the airwaves would turn voters off. I was right.

Once mass spam texts were made legal, younger donors vanished, leaving a grassroots fundraising machine that subsists on squeezing vulnerable seniors, some of whom give hundreds of times a day. It’s a horrific model. Consultants get generationally wealthy, and the party hollows out its future.

"Democrats traded their younger donors for squeezed seniors," showing the share of the party’s small-dollar donations (under $200) from 2012 to 2026. The subtitle reads: "In 2026, about 175,000 squeezed seniors — donors 65 and older charged 50 or more times in a cycle — supplied 51% of those donations. Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z, roughly 63% of registered Democrats, supplied 15%."
Two lines track donation shares from 2012 to 2026:
"Squeezed seniors" (orange line) starts around 9% in 2012, rises to 30% in 2018 and 2020, then jumps sharply to 45% in 2022, 47% in 2024, and 51% in 2026.
"Gen X, Millennials & Gen Z" (green line) starts around 17% in 2012, peaks around 33% in 2020, and then drops sharply to 18% in 2022, 19% in 2024, and 15% in 2026.
A vertical dashed line at April 2021 is labeled: "The Supreme Court (Facebook v. Duguid) clears the way for mass fundraising texts, piled on top of the email spam already flooding inboxes."
Footnote: "Shares are by number of donations. By dollars, squeezed seniors gave 39% of small-dollar money in 2026 and Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z gave 18%. Squeezed seniors are donors 65 and older charged 50 or more times in an election cycle. 2026 is mid-cycle.
Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 3w ago

We found that as of right now 73% of your campaign donation goes back to the consultants and vendors (!!!), four times more than just 20 years ago. Only 13% to ads. Even I was shocked.

Where your $100 donation actually goes
Of every $100 raised by a Democratic fundraising text, $73 goes to consultants and vendors. Only $13 reaches voters as advertising — the most expensive dollar to raise in American politics.
Consultants & vendors
• Advertising, staff & admin |
Your donation
$100
Fundraising fees
-$65
$35 left
Strategic consultants
-$2
$33 left
Media placement commission
-$6
$73
of every $100 goes to consultants & vendors
$27 left
Advertising
-$13
$14 left
Staff, travel & admin
-$14
$0 left
Note: Shares are for a dollar raised by a Democratic fundraising text or email.
Source: Authors' analysis of FEC disbursement records.

More than $220 million has been wagered on the 2026 midterms through prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. A new study finds these speculative odds influence voters’ views of candidates’ electability — and more than 80% of voters want tighter regulation or an outright ban.

New Study Finds Prediction Markets Are Influencing Voters — and Voters Want Them Regulated

A new survey supported by the Brennan Center finds that prediction market odds shift voters’ views of which candidates are electable.

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