Paul Nadeau

@pauljnadeau.bsky.social

Trade, politics, and geoeconomics. Adjunct associate professor with Temple University Japan, visiting research fellow with the Institute of Geoeconomics, should be GM of the Quebec Nordiques. Usual disclaimers.

Ukrainians literally rose up against an exploitative oligarchy of corrupt billionaires! They did the thing DSA! They firebombed the Walmart and chased the Capo out of the country. His Godfather has been trying to punish them ever since and you're too tankie to pick their side!?

I think one reason the public has such a shallow understanding of the extent of the damage Trump is doing is that *US political & media elites* have such a shallow understanding. Douthat's pleasant upper-middle-class life hasn't been unduly disturbed, so really, what's the big deal?

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · yesterday

Trump II has profound consequences that will last a century: -destruction of administrative state & civil service -extreme wealth concentration, tech oligarchy -climate rollbacks -end of rule of law w/o pushback incentivizes future backsliding -Iran Pundits hate this because it sounds shrill

Trump II has profound consequences that will last a century: -destruction of administrative state & civil service -extreme wealth concentration, tech oligarchy -climate rollbacks -end of rule of law w/o pushback incentivizes future backsliding -Iran Pundits hate this because it sounds shrill

Peter@notalawyer.bsky.social · 2d ago

also, describing a lack of legislative capacity as a point against authoritarian consolidation misses the point: the defining feature of Trump’s second term is consolidation of power in the *executive* - the lack of legislative authorization makes him more authoritarian, not less

At the moment, Trump 2.0 has no great popularity, no legislative capacity, no policy legacy that a Democratic successor can't easily roll back.

Trump 2.0 has blown up US scientific research in a way that will take decades to roll back. Labs that took years to build have closed, young people have left science. NYT Mag published a long report on Dismantling Cancer Research. Why does Ross Douthat lie like this?

Peter@notalawyer.bsky.social · 2d ago

also, describing a lack of legislative capacity as a point against authoritarian consolidation misses the point: the defining feature of Trump’s second term is consolidation of power in the *executive* - the lack of legislative authorization makes him more authoritarian, not less

At the moment, Trump 2.0 has no great popularity, no legislative capacity, no policy legacy that a Democratic successor can't easily roll back.

Been thinking about this a lot as so many Democrats ~my age & older fret about why The Kids These Days are supporting “socialism” & DSA candidates. Spending one’s days around 18-22 year olds quickly makes clear they have ~no frame of reference of a “normal politics” that looked like the Obama years.

Mark Copelovitch@mcopelov.bsky.social · 2d ago

This year's first years' were born in 2008. Last years' modal first political memory in Intro to IR was either Obama 2012 or Trump 2016. Students have ~no memory of "normal 🇺🇸 politics" pre-Trump, let alone the Cold War, post-Cold War, Iraq 2003, the GFC, etc. Important to benchmark when teaching.

The idea that deep institutional damage can be easily rolled back seems like a very odd take for a conservative. The damage to the civil service system is huge, and legislation is needed to reassure future hires they won’t be fired on a whim.

Peter@notalawyer.bsky.social · 2d ago

also, describing a lack of legislative capacity as a point against authoritarian consolidation misses the point: the defining feature of Trump’s second term is consolidation of power in the *executive* - the lack of legislative authorization makes him more authoritarian, not less

At the moment, Trump 2.0 has no great popularity, no legislative capacity, no policy legacy that a Democratic successor can't easily roll back.

"Based on satellite imagery and land-use data, Shiraishi analyzed where and how the canopy coverage is declining in Tokyo. He discovered that, over the 10 years through 2023, tree cover fell by 38% on public land and 57% on private land."

As Japan’s concrete jungles sizzle, urban forestry offers an all-natural fix

Increasing tree coverage in Japanese cities could have myriad benefits as the planet warms. But canopy coverage in Tokyo and beyond is headed in the wrong direction.

japantimes.co.jp

Not to put this one person on blast but I find these sorts of takes really frustrating. China isn't guaranteeing anyone's shipping. China isn't able to guarantee *China's* shipping right now. The PRC responded to the War in Iran by reducing oil imports by roughly 40% and spending down reserves.

Jimmy Jim James@jimmy-jim-james.bsky.social · 5d ago

The USA just lost a naval war. China is becoming the respected provider of Freedom of Navigation. Whlle the USA becomes untrustworthy, yesterday Roland Oliphant The Telegraph reported Oman would pass Straight of Hormuz Toll Money to Trump

The reason I'm skeptical about US economic statecraft is the constant insistence on "the sanctions will continue until morale improves" despite decades of evidence to the contrary. This could be a chance to reverse a trend, but with the bureaucracy steeped so deeply in coercion, I'm still skeptical

Vali Nasr@valinasr.bsky.social · 4d ago

great piece by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani: "Peace With Iran Won’t Last Unless It Benefits Ordinary Iranians" prosyn.org/P742xyO

At this instant in 1945 (8:15 AM August 6, local time), Little Boy—a 15-kiloton, uranium-fueled atomic bomb—destroyed Hiroshima, killing (per official US military estimates) ~70,000 men, women, and children, incl. 12 American POWs. Independent estimates later maintained ~140,000 people were killed.

A color photograph of a damaged Iras wristwatch with a leather band on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, its hands frozen at 8:15 AM.A photograph of a shadow of a person living in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, who was killed as they climbed the steps of the Sumitomo Bank building while using a cane, leaving behind only their shadow imprinted on the steps (because their body and cane momentarily blocked the light from the intense thermal flash, burning away everything on the steps that was not in shadow).A color photograph of a damaged and partially melted child’s tricycle on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. On the morning of August 6, 1945, Shinichi Tetsutani, who was one month shy of turning four years old, was riding this tricycle, playing with his best friend, a girl named Kimi, 1,500 meters away from where the Little Boy atomic bomb exploded overhead. When found in the wreckage of his house, he was still grasping the red handlebar grip from his tricycle. Severely injured and burned all over his body, calling out, “Water, I want water,” he died that night. Shinichi’s father buried him in the backyard with his favorite toy, and his best friend Kimi, so he could ride it and play even after death. Forty years later, in 1985, Shinichi’s father, Nobuo, decided to rebury his son in the family’s gravesite. Unearthing the backyard grave with Kimi’s mother, Nobuo rediscovered the tricycle and donated it to the museum.