Peter Tillmann
@peterhtillmann.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University (JLU) Giessen | monetary policy, macroeconomics, text-as-data applications https://sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann/
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland www.ft.com/content/236c...
UK interest rates: Bank of England cuts rates to 4% in tight vote
Monetary Policy Committee forced into unprecedented second vote after initially failing to reach majority
ft.com
Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft@dfg.de · last yr.#CallforProposals The DFG Infrastructure Priority Programme "Research Vessels" opens its 2nd call: Proposals can be submitted for an individual funding period of up to 3 years starting in January 2027 or later. More background information, formal requirements and process: www.dfg.de/de/aktuelles...
Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.
Alexander Wulfers@alexanderwulfers.com · last yr.Wie war die Stimmung während der ersten Globalisierung, nach der Erfindung des Radios oder während Europas letztem großen Klimawandel? Ökonomen (u.a. @heblich.bsky.social) haben sich dafür etwas Cleveres einfallen lassen: Emotionen in >600.000 Gemälden, ausgewertet mit KI.
Er liefert dem MAGA Lager die Munition. Unverantwortlich. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/m...
Mohamed El-Erian: Top-Ökonom fordert Rücktritt von US-Notenbankchef
US-Präsident Trump möchte Fed-Chef Jerome Powell absetzen, doch die Wall Street unterstützt den Chefbanker bislang. Mit Mohamed El-Erian verlangt nun ein bekannter Ökonom Powells Rückzug. Er hat wohl ...
spiegel.de
Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies." www.ft.com/content/b400...
Foreign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall Street
Legislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, warn banks and investors
ft.com
Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian. If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
Stephen@stephent.bsky.social · last yr.“The easiest thing is for Powell to resign. If you really want to protect the integrity of the Fed and its independence, chair Powell would resign” - el-erian 🥴 www.foxbusiness.com/video/637161...
🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy. It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy! #HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term:
All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5%
This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +
Reciprocal Tariff Calculations
Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...
ustr.gov
The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick.
Gebt 🇺🇸 Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat! Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir. www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...
(S+) Meinung: Gebt Amerikas Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat in Deutschland!
US-Spitzenforscher leiden zunehmend unter den Einschnitten der Trump-Regierung. Deutschland sollte sie mit einem ambitionierten »Meitner-Einstein-Programm« ins Land locken, fordert jetzt eine Gruppe n...
spiegel.de
"Many clients were looking to diversify away from the US dollar" www.ft.com/content/f8c7...
Wealthy Americans seek refuge from Donald Trump in Swiss banks
Private bankers and investment managers report large increase in clients wanting to shift assets to Switzerland
ft.com
It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
Chris Waller explains his dissent www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
A group of European countries is devising a strategy to poach researchers in the United States in response to American government cuts in education and research. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe looks to poach US researchers as Trump cuts funding
Twelve EU capitals want programs to bring over American scholars.
politico.eu
