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@skandaamarnath.bsky.social does not mince words: “Every major pillar of [Warsh’s] self-portrait inverts the public record.” www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

Kevin Warsh: The Words Of Today or The Deeds Over Decades?

Kevin Warsh is likely to present himself today as an educated, principled institutionalist who naturally treasures Fed independence. His opening remarks invoke Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke, name G...

employamerica.org

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol... "Every major pillar of his self-portrait inverts the public record." -- @skandaamarnath.bsky.social on the flip-flops and contradictions of Kevin Warsh's history and how he's presenting himself today

Kevin Warsh: The Words Of Today or The Deeds Over Decades?

Kevin Warsh is likely to present himself today as an educated, principled institutionalist who naturally treasures Fed independence. His opening remarks invoke Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke, name G...

employamerica.org

Exactly! So we emailed and got this response. They have been using the source data despite it not meeting CPI publication standards for years but suddenly shifted when there was a large gain. A shift in source data would typically be done as part of an annual revision and disclosed ahead of time:

Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look

That is a reasonable concern, but there are plenty of noisy sources ripe for improvement, that is what the annual benchmark process is all about. Changing things in an ad hoc way with no disclosure is the real news here, and decidedly not how they used to make decisions

Trump wanted low rates but when you pick the most partisan guy on the basis of obsequiousness, he may not get what he wants... Also doesn't help when the dollar has shown persistent weakening for the first time in a while.

The long-term borrowing costs that American businesses, families, and Uncle Sam face...those are based on more than one election cycle If you're going to cut rates to please the current President, there's some additional inflation or future rate hikes that also get priced in...

Skanda Amarnath@skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 6mo ago

What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair -More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican -Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH. Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis

What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair -More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican -Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH. Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis

Skanda Amarnath@skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience. Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker Tired: Data-dependence Wired: Presidential-dependence

Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience. Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker Tired: Data-dependence Wired: Presidential-dependence

It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through - Likely opponents for top two - Who gets eighth - Is a draw enough for Napoli? Article 👇 www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...

Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...

Champions League Matchday: Who will advance, who makes playoffs, odds

Three burning questions for Matchday 8: How will everything shake out in chaotic Champions League table

cbssports.com

new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social ! talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...

Scenarios!! (with Skanda Amarnath) | The Double Pivot Podcast

Get more from The Double Pivot Podcast on Patreon

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Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social

no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"

Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...

It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate

Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...

employamerica.org

Restaurant inflation still biting

Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now

Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.

nm we got DAL *DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND *DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53 *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B *DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20

George Pearkes@peark.es · 7mo ago

Good morning and welcome to earnings season. DAL usually kicks us off but they've changed their earnings timing this quarter and are apparently planning to drop their financials at the same time their call starts (10a). Maybe just a misprint but that's what's in all the schedules.

Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...

It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate

Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...

employamerica.org

As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s

4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA 3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.

There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.

There are no shortcuts to affordability

As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.

stayathomemacro.substack.com

fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening

META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade. what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction

half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash. multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*

Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms. overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s

The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom — Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins

Electricity prices are the biggest economic issue in the New Jersey governor’s race, which is perhaps next month’s most closely watched election. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate and frontrunn...

overcast.fm

This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom

Rob talks New Jersey past, present, and future with Employ America’s Skanda Amarnath.

heatmap.news