Burnham's devo plans are light on financial detail and rooted in the belief that wealth gathers where power resides. Break the Westminster stranglehold and regional growth will flourish www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Phil Aldrick
@philaldrick.bsky.social
Senior economics reporter, Bloomberg
AI models are like lying teenagers, BOE deputy governor Sarah Breeden says. from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1/ Commentators seeking to define what a Burnham premiership might look like focus on "Manchesterism: without analysing the constraints that Burnham will face as Prime Minister that he didn’t as Mayor. open.substack.com/pub/harryqui...
The realist case for progressive political leadership
How Andy Burnham can overcome political and policy constraints to deliver real change
open.substack.com
UK aid spending is at risk of falling below the dismal 0.3% of GDP under a deal agreed by FCDO that will gives the Home Office a fifth of the £10bn budget and lets it recycle any savings from closing migrant hotels into non-aid spending (like policing). www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
UK Aid Budget Threatened by Funding Deal for Housing Refugees
Hundreds of millions of pounds of aid spending are at risk under the terms of a funding settlement to manage the cost of housing people seeking asylum in the UK.
bloomberg.com
Trump’s war with Iran is ushering in a new nuclear arms race. Those without the bomb fear they are now exposed as the established global orders break apart. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The OBR's David Miles and IFS's Helen Miller yesterday warned the govt can't afford to protect households from rising energy costs as a result of the Iran war. People need to adjust their expectations of what the state can do after Covid and Truss's 2022 energy package.
The Bank of England is running AI macroeconomic scenarios to anticipate what the tech may do to UK jobs and growth, as well as the potential risk of a financial shock. The internal work follows the apocalyptic Citrini report and the OBR's own assessment www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves got lucky with the OBR forecast - for once. But the UK's fortunes are again tied to events outside our control. Her fiscal event was supposed to be nothing-to-see here. But more striking was what she didn't say. (Defence,energy, migration, spending pressure) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves’ Say-Nothing Moment Left Britain’s Big Challenges Unanswered
Rachel Reeves had promised to deliver a nothing-to-see-here spring forecast this week, an event to be celebrated for its uneventfulness. After war erupted in the Middle East, however, Tuesday’s statem...
bloomberg.com
Labour's growth plan is more investment. Most (80pc) is UK private sector. By driving up employment costs, it is pushing firms to invest. The numbers are improving. But the price is higher unemployment. UK is looking less US these days, and more French www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Bizarre twist in Reeves’ plan to scrap the OBR headroom assessment in the Spring Statement next month. It won’t technically assess her fiscal rules but it will publish a headroom number, Treasury Perm Sec said yesterday. Which begs the question, what’s the point ..?
BOE appears to think it has tamed inflation even after cutting rates twice more this year. The more immediate danger now seems to be a spike unemployment. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trawling through BoE transcripts from 2017 released today was this limerick sign-off from Minouche Shafik, now Starmer’s econ adviser, at her last MPC meeting. Inspired by @adamposen.bsky.social who “took to poetry in his final meeting” apparently
The OECD is drawing up fiscal literacy classes for politicians to ensure they get the risks when calling for tax cuts or spending hikes. Any parliament can join. Several are interested tho not Westminster yet. Scotland will launch a version after its election. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Lessons in Markets on the Way for Budget-Challenged Politicians
From London to Pretoria, finance ministers around the world are struggling to pass painful budgets in the face of political opposition. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has a ...
bloomberg.com
Clive Cowdery tells @bloomberg.com how Resolution Foundation became the UK’s most influential think tank, talks about his remarkable personal journey from care homes to £millions and his “frenemy” Paul Marshall www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Rags-to-Riches Capitalist Behind Britain’s Most Influential Think Tank
Clive Cowdery is arguably the most influential non-politician in UK politics today. His proteges at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank he founded 20 years ago, now staff the halls of Westminster ...
bloomberg.com
Runners and riders to replace Hughes at the OBR. Andy King, Ruth Curtice, Stephen Farrington, Paul Johnson, Sam Beckett, Gemma Tetlow, Rain Newton-Smith www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Here’s Who May Lead the UK Budget Watchdog After Report Blunder
It’s become one of the most sensitive non-political appointments in the UK: Who is going to take over at the Office for Budget Responsibility?
bloomberg.com
New paper cited by BOE ratesetter Swati Dhingra and co-authored by BOE senior economist Philip Bunn puts the Brexit damage at twice the OBR's 4% estimate. And it's been getting worse since the TCA came into force www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloomberg.com
glad to see this piece from summer on Labour's "all pain, no gain" strategy still works www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty @ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
How the bond markets appear to be reading the latest budget u-turn. Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn) Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn) Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
eeves has asked the OBR to score her plan to lower inflation by tackling regulated prices. It could knock up to £6bn off borrowing costs - fully offsetting the increase since March, Bloomberg Economics work shows, helping to fill the £30bn hole. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves Looks to Woo Budget Watchdog With Plan to Cut Inflation
Rachel Reeves should get billions of pounds of extra room in her upcoming budget, UK Treasury officials believe, thanks to her plan to cut household bills and bring down inflation.
bloomberg.com
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Wholesale energy costs aren't the *sole* driver of higher energy bills. For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills. Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade. It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade. Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
Reeves could end the threat of further tax rises by lifting her £9.9bn buffer this budget, economists say. More margin for error would lower borrowing costs and hand her another boost in what's being called a "virtuous circle." Does mean more tax in Nov tho www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves Faces Mounting Calls to Expand UK’s Fiscal Buffer
Rachel Reeves is coming under pressure to increase the buffer against her fiscal rules at next month’s UK budget, to create what one economist called a “virtuous circle” that quells bond-market uncert...
bloomberg.com
The OBR is about to downgrade productivity just as the productivity figures start to pick up, from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reeves May Get Budget Lifeline From New UK Productivity Data
The UK is enjoying its fastest productivity growth since the pandemic, according to new research from Pantheon Macroeconomics that relies on tax data instead of the standard labor-market figures.
bloomberg.com
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Striking data point from ONS today. Income inequality at lowest level in 40 years, with the low reached under the Tories. From ONS dataset www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
