Nicholas Stephanopoulos

@profnickstephan.bsky.social

Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law School. https://nicholas-stephanopoulos.com/

After the Virginia result last night, @planscore.org's model predicts a nearly unbiased House if the electoral environment is like 2024. If the national vote is more like D+5 (per current polls), the model still predicts a modest pro-Republican skew. planscore.org#!predict6D-u...

PlanScore

PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

planscore.org

Very nice to see Andrew Gelman - who helped develop the "Gelman-King" bias of district maps - conceding that the metric doesn't work in uncompetitive states. Other scholars defended the measure's use in Utah, but the court saw through these claims. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/13/c...

Being picky and careful pays off! (Utah redistricting story) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

What explains the Court's stay in the Staten Island case? 1. The Court could think that race-conscious districting is inherently unlawful. That's what Alito says in his concurrence (contradicting his own opinion in, e.g., Milligan). But no other justice joined Alito.

An informative interview with @justinlevitt.bsky.social & @profnickstephan.bsky.social. Among other things, they discuss how the Supreme Court could make seemingly small changes to the Voting Rights Act that make VRA§2 redistricting lawsuits virtually impossible without deeming it unconstitutional

Votebeat@votebeat.org · 6mo ago

How much worse can gerrymandering get? Will the Supreme Court strike down a landmark voting rights law? We asked two experts.

After Bost, standing could largely disappear as an issue in election law cases -- at least if plaintiffs can get a candidate to join the suit. If only we had known this in Whitford, the whole history of partisan gerrymandering might be different.

I just posted "Redistricting Without Tradeoffs," forthcoming in @columlrev.bsky.social, on SSRN. The article relies on huge sets of computer-generated district maps to show that tradeoffs between redistricting criteria are much less common than is often thought. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Redistricting Without Tradeoffs

<div> The law of redistricting is built on the assumption that tradeoffs among line-drawing criteria are pervasive. This view helps explain crucial elements of

papers.ssrn.com

Some more concerns about the SG's proposal in Callais: 1. At present, the first Gingles prong focuses on the availability of remedies. The SG's proposal would make it a probe for racial predominance -- the crux of the distinct theory of racial gerrymandering. electionlawblog.org?p=152738

More Concerns About the SG’s Proposal in Callais #ELB

I’ve already discussed a number of problems with the SG’s proposal in Callais (that plaintiffs’ demonstrative maps be required to achieve jurisdictions’ political objectives). Upon further reflection,...

electionlawblog.org

Another problem with the SG's proposal in Callais is that it's refuted by Section 2's legislative history. Lots of participants in the '82 hearings thought of the SG's idea that political goals excuse racial vote dilution. And they all believed the idea didn't apply. electionlawblog.org?p=152656

Section 2’s Legislative History Refutes the SG’s Proposal #ELB

I’ve previously noted a number of problems with the SG’s proposal in Callais, under which demonstrative maps would have to achieve the enacted plan’s political goals in order to satisfy the first Ging...

electionlawblog.org