The German government is working on a plan on what to do if regions vote in extreme-right AFD governments which may not allow NATO troop movements or may otherwise want to impede defence policies and Russia deterrence. www.n-tv.de/politik/Sorg...

Sorge vor AfD-Wahlerfolgen - Bund arbeitet an Nato-Notfallplan

Im September werden in Sachsen-Anhalt und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern neue Landtage gewählt. In Umfragen liegt die AfD klar vorn. Die Sorge vor einem Wahlerfolg führt in Berlin laut einem Bericht zu konkre...

n-tv.de

The 30-year Treasury yield, which moves with inflation expectations, jumped to 5.21 per cent, their highest level since mid-2007. Follow live updates: ft.trib.al/p9TMRwZ

Can’t believe Glen Hansard is gone. What an unbelievable tragedy. I loved his and Lisa O’Neill’s rendition of Fairytale of New York at Shane MacGowan’s funeral: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ptay...

Glen Hansard and Lisa O'Neill Perform "Fairytale of New York" at Shane MacGowan's Funeral

YouTube video by Consequence

m.youtube.com

“The effort to prepare contingency measures in case China again weaponizes critical raw materials …. forms part of 34 non-public measures formulated in Germany’s national security council aimed at strengthening resilience and reducing strategic dependencies, according to one of the people.”

Germany Maps China’s Weaknesses in Preparation for a Trade War

German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the European Union finds itself in a trade war with the world’s second-largest ec...

bloomberg.com

Please enjoy this home security footage of an oddly human-like bear raiding a fridge in Lake Tahoe www.wsj.com/us-news/blac...

“Koizumi’s remarks come as the government weighs updates to key documents outlining Japan’s security policy — including a possible revision of the country’s decades-old pledge not to produce, possess or host nuclear weapons.”

Japan ‘cannot avoid’ nuclear weapons debate, defense chief Koizumi says

Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s remarks come as the government weighs revising the country’s decades-old pledge not to produce, possess or host nuclear arms.

japantimes.co.jp

Adam von Trott zu Solz, Jurist, AA-Diplomat, lehnt die „Unterwerfung unter jede Ordnung“ ab. Er kämpft ab 1939 für den Sturz des NS-Regimes, ist Teil des Kreisauer Kreises, trifft Brandt in Schweden. Stauffenberg besucht Trott am Abend vor dem Attentat – Trott macht ihm Mut. 1/2

A quick dispatch from Down Under. As India's PM Modi visited Australia last week and the two countries agreed to a wide-ranging defense framework, the prospects for defense industrial co-production might be under-appreciated. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

India’s defence export rise opens a door for Australia

India’s defence industrial base has grown faster than most realise – and with it comes a chance for partnerships.

lowyinstitute.org

Applications Due August 1! Spend up to 6 months researching critical issues in transatlantic relations in Washington with a DAAD/AGI Research Fellowship:

DAAD/AGI Research Fellowship Program

The DAAD/AGI Research Fellowship Program, funded by a generous grant from the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD), is designed to bring scholars and specialists working on key issues of…

americangerman.institute

Chinese Shipyards Double Their New Order Volume in First Half of 2026 maritime-executive.com/article/chin...

Chinese Shipyards Double Their New Order Volume in First Half of 2026

In the first half, China's shipyards took on twice as many new orders as they did during the same period in 2025, according to the latest numbers from...

maritime-executive.com

A very insightful discussion in this @gmfus.bsky.social podcast on the EU response to growing economic challenges from China with the excellent @noahbarkin.bsky.social

Noah Barkin@noahbarkin.bsky.social · 4w ago

Always fun joining Bonnie on her excellent China Global podcast for GMF. We discussed simmering tensions in the EU-China relationship, which risk boiling over after the summer into a full-blown trade war www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9rM...

I really do think now is a time to read history. It is a powerful reminder that the past of the U.S., specifically, is full of extremely dark moments when it seemed all was lost. (It wasn't.)

Hot off the trade policy presses: "USTR Announces Initiation of Section 301 Investigation of Germany’s Persistent Underpayment for Innovative Pharmaceutical Products" This will be a fun and controversial one! Tagging @jamielove.bsky.social @hyoyoonkang.bsky.social

Germany now all-time World Cup top scorer according to the BBC

“Scots discovering tailgating” could be a real Prometheus stealing fire moment

NBA teams were 4-750 when down by 20 or more in the 4th quarter of a playoff game over the last 30 years. They are now 5-750. Knicks come back from 20 in the fourth quarter, the second time they've come back from down 20 in the fourth THIS POSTSEASON.

The Cleveland Fed's median and trimmed-mean CPI measures look basically identical to core -- up 2.9% year-over-year.

Last night I wrote an imagined conversation with my friends Brad Setser and @gagnonmacro.bsky.social on what Japan should do. We disagree on whether intervention makes sense - I don't - and I thought it'd be helpful to tease out where and why we disagree... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-shoul...

US data center construction rose to a new record high in official data released today, hitting a pace of nearly $51B/yr (and this only includes data center facilities, not the expensive computers within) Spending is up 28% over the last year and 268% since the launch of ChatGPT

Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/

How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest

ecfr.eu

In reading a history of mercenaries in the Thirty Years' War, I take a look at the way in which military culture connects with developing ideas of political rights and privileges, connecting this with the idea of the "nation in arms." 🧵 www.deadcarl.com/p/rights-and...

Rights and Righteousness: From "The War People” to “A People at War"

What the Mercenaries of the Thirty Years' War and the Citizen-Soldier Have In Common

deadcarl.com

Confirmation today that trade imbalances with China will be on the agenda when European leaders meet in mid-June. You read it here first: open.substack.com/pub/nbarkin/...

Watching China in Europe - May 2026

The EU plans to ask European leaders next month for a green light to pursue far-reaching trade measures against China. It will be a test of EU unity and resolve in the face of a deepening China shock.

open.substack.com

Something completely unique about the AI boom: the biggest capex spenders are doing so out of petty cash. There are definitely excesses on the foundation lab side but they're substantially all financed by equity investments.

Not sure these numbers are very meaningful at such low absolutes. Assuming they did not push learners?

Poll Tracker 📊@polltracker.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Texas Senate poll (University of Texas) 🔵 Talarico 40% 🔴 Cornyn 33% 🔵 Talarico 42% 🔴 Paxton 34% texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202604...

Rhodium: "Our estimates of trends in death rates suggest that China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, almost the size of France, with the annual decline in 2035 to hit 7.6 million."

Perhaps the most shocking statistic that China published last year was the total number of births. At only 7.92 million in 2025, total births were less than half of the number a decade ago… | Rhodium Group

Perhaps the most shocking statistic that China published last year was the total number of births. At only 7.92 million in 2025, total births were less than half of the number a decade ago. Demographic headwinds to household consumption growth are a “gray rhino” for China’s economy—a clearly visible threat that is nonetheless neglected. The 2025 data pointing to double the population loss from 2024 suggest the rhino is now charging directly at China’s political and economic ambitions. Our estimates of trends in death rates suggest that China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, almost the size of France, with the annual decline in 2035 to hit 7.6 million. The headlines are bad, the regional breakdown is worse. The country’s most developed provinces are seeing falling populations, which will impact overall consumption and the future productivity of the labor force. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. The fiscal subsidy to social security funds rose to a record 2.9 trillion yuan last year, or 10.1% of general budget spending, and appears set to rise in the future.

linkedin.com

The painting in the background, Washington Crossing the Delaware (which btw was painted in Germany, as I describe in my book), depicts events that took place around Christmas 1776. Just a couple of months later, Washington famously mandated the inoculation of the Continental Army against small pox.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Yeah that will solve all of our problems…..

“Last week Australia and Japan signed a new agreement for the Australian Navy to acquire Japanese-designed Mogami-class frigates. … Countries like Australia are seeking to diversify their military hardware away from the United States, as the deal demonstrates.” thediplomat.com/2026/04/aust...

Australia-Japan Ink Deal for Mogami-class Frigates

Canberra and Tokyo continue to build closer links with each other, with a shared understanding of the strategic environment, and a high degree of trust

thediplomat.com

"Whereas prior Anthropic models converted known vulnerabilities into working exploits at a low success rate, Mythos does so 72.4 percent of the time. It has found thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities." Good text by Naveen Krishnan that at least hints at solutions warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...

Anthropic's Nuclear Bomb

A few hours before Anthropic announced the launch of its newest model, Claude Mythos Preview, on April 7, I had just completed a six-month analysis of

warontherocks.com

Some interesting findings in the 2026 Stanford AI Index Report. A few points that stuck out: According to the report, the U.S.-China AI model performance gap has effectively closed

Port of Los Angeles Director with some sobering logistics realities: "For every one day of service disruption, it takes about three days to catch up". This means, we are already looking at 4.5 months before things return to normal operations at the port: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Watch Hormuz Closure Impact Will Be Felt for Months, Seroka Says - Bloomberg

Port of Los Angeles Director Gene Seroka says the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure will be felt for months and he says costs will likely be passed on to consumers. He speaks on "Bloomberg Survei...

bloomberg.com