Per sources: The Red Sox are getting Rutschman and Jake Rogers as well as cash for Anthony Eyanson, Enddy Azocar, Kyson Witherspoon, and Carlos Narváez.

Per source, Lucas Giolito will decline the player side of his mutual option with the Red Sox. Sox now have to decide whether to make him a 1-year $22M qualifying offer.

Red Sox announced Early, Giolito, Bello will start vs. the A's, skipping Tolle/Harrison. Bello & Crochet make 2 more starts regardless, but this (1) allows Giolito to make a third, on the final day, if needed and (2) makes Crochet available for game 1 of WCS. Here's one way it could work:

The 2025 Red Sox cleanup hitters are having their weakest year in ... oh, wow. Story's been OK there. Kristian Campbell posting a .404 OPS -- production not found -- in 53 PA doesn't help. stathead.com/tiny/bkL0N

Toro spent 110 days with the team on a prorated $1M deal, meaning he'll take home ~$600k on the 2025 payroll. He has 3+ yrs of MLB service and has been previously outrighted (Oakland, 2024), so he can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he clears waivers.

Jen McCaffrey@jcmccaffrey.bsky.social · 12mo ago

The Red Sox have designated Abraham Toro for assignment, according to a source. David Hamilton has been recalled.

Here's the team-controlled SP depth and projected costs for 2025-2031. As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor. Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.

Here's the top 8 AL rookies by fWAR. Wilson's main edge comes from GP. If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g. I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.

Giolito contract update: If under 140 IP, BOS has a $14M club opt for 2026. If over, it's a $19M mutual opt. He's at 66.1 IP in 12 GS (5.5 IP/GS). Boston has 70g left. If he starts every 5g, that's 14 starts. At 6IP per, he'd reach 150.1IP At 5IP per, he'd reach 136.1IP 😅

An updated look at where the Red Sox payroll stands after the Devers trade (in partnership with @redsoxpayroll.bsky.social ): www.soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

With the trade of Rafael Devers, longest tenure in the Red Sox organization belongs to Bryan Mata, who signed in Jan. 2016. Incredibly, still hasn't made his MLB debut. He's got 1.5 years on 2017 draftees Tanner Houck & Kutter Crawford and IFAs Ceddanne Rafaela and Brayan Bello.

Here's a Red Sox trade savings chart, if the team decides to sell. It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline). Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.

Started tracking bonuses differently this year. It's a more precise snapshot based on specific incentives + performance. I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection. Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.

If health holds and rehabs go well, Boston can have their projected A-team rotation April 24-29: 4/16 Newcomb OFF 4/18 Dobbins 4/19 Crochet 4/20 Houck 4/21 Buehler 4/22 Bello 4/23 Newcomb/Dobbins 4/24 Crochet 4/25 Giolito/Houck 4/26 Houck/Giolito 4/27 Buehler OFF 4/29 Bello 4/30 Crochet

As Cora tweaks the lineup, here's an optimization tool from BaseballMusings.com that uses OBA and Slugging to suggest the highest runs-per-game lineup. Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.

Campbell AAVs, before earning any incentives: 2025 $7.5M 2026 $7.5M 2027 $7.5M 2028 $7.5M 2029 $7.5M 2030 $7.5M 2031 $7.5M 2032 $7.5M 2033 $15M ($19M salary - $4M buyout) 2024 $21M

W/ the Campbell deal, 2025 CBT = ~$257.4M, ~$16M above the CBT threshold Getting under the CBT threshold isn't really an option anymore. Sending out salary is prorated, so they'd need to shed $40-50M just to drop $16M in June/July Early 2026 = $235M, $9M under the CBT line Payroll: bit.ly/3WCDjp3

Red Sox Payrolls

bit.ly

The Sox get a conditional option of $15M for 2032 if Crochet misses 120 consecutive days due to a significant arm injury. In the case of such an event, assuming it happened between 2026-30, his opt-out after 2030 would be voided. If he avoids such an injury, then he gets the opt-out following 2030.

Updated 👇 Red Sox get: LHP Garrett Crochet for 7 yrs/$173.8 mil + escalators White Sox get: C Kyle Teel (MLB No. 25), OF Braden Montgomery (MLB No. 54), INF Chase Meidroth (BOS No. 11), P Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS No. 14) Feels much more palatable.

With Crochet, assuming... *$22M in arbitration money *Buehler, Giolito, and Hendriks options aren't picked up *Bregman and Story stay ...the 2026 payroll sits at roughly $228M, or $16M below the $244M first CBT threshold for next year. No effect on the Red Sox 2025 CBT payroll

Crochet's new contract is the 2nd-largest for a Red Sox pitcher ever, behind David Price, and the richest extension they've given out.

Red Sox 40-man starting pitching investment outlook, 2025-2031. *Green = arbitration estimate

Opening Day Payroll: ~$249.9M, a club record. That's ~$8.9M above the 1st CBT threshold with room to add with minimal penalties throughout the year. This projection will fluctuate with player moves + injuries throughout the year. Looking forward to everyone following along in 2025!

Cut-watch starts today. If added to the roster, notable prorated MLB salaries for NRIs: Ottovino $2M Moore $2M Fulmer $1.5M Toro $1M Opt-outs are Ottavino & Moore (3/22, 5/1, 6/1), Adams, Davis, and Zavala (dates TBA). Thompson has a July assignment clause per @spchrishatfield.bsky.social

With roster cuts today, looking ahead to next week, the team will likely need *at least* 1-2 40-man spots. Murphy and Penrod can be added to the 60-day IL when they need those spots. Not on the 40: Campbell, Ottovino, Moore, Newcomb, Mayer, Anthony, Toro, Thompson, Fullmer

The players, as I understand it, with opt outs are Ottavino, Moore (the two automatic ones), Adams, Davis, and Zavala. Not clear on the dates for the last 3 yet. Ottavino & Moore are 3/22, 5/1, 6/1. Also, Thompson has a July assignment clause. Unclear if others have too.

Bregman has yet to play 2B in Spring, and Hamilton appears to be getting priority at the position Masa looks healthy. Devers isn't (yet) Wilyer is behind. KC's been playing LF Kutter is hurt & Bello/Gio are behind Wondering if maybe Fitts and Sogard break camp on this roster

These are the FA possibles for Boston after the 2025 season: Buehler (mutual opt) Chapman Hendriks (mutual opt) Wilson Ref Giolito (cond'l option) Bregman (player opt-out) Below is who is under contract for '26. Including arb$, the team should cost ~$200M. Assuming Story stays. ~$231M if AB stays

Highest Red Sox CBT payrolls ever: *2025*: (so far): ~$248.32M 2019: $243.7M 2018: $239.4M 2022: $236.1M 2024: $226.1M 2023: $225.7M

In this look at how the Red Sox and Alex Bregman structured the deal in a way to benefit both sides: AAV is $31.9M. Structure: $5M bonus $35M salary in 2025 (opt-out after season) $40M salary in 2026 (opt-out after season) and 2027 Deferrals in all three seasons. www.bostonglobe.com/2025/02/13/s...

Breaking down Alex Bregman’s three-year, $120 million Red Sox contract - The Boston Globe

The player opt-outs carry enormous value for Bregman, arguably tens of millions of dollars.

bostonglobe.com

Largest AAVs ever: Soto $51M Shohei $46M Max $43.3M Verlander $43.3M Wheeler $42M Judge $40M deGrom $37M Trout $36M Cole $36M Correa $35.1M Strasburg $35M Rendon $35M Burnes $35M Bregman is going to crack t-10 ALL TIME when we know the deferral effect...likely $35-40M range. And top 5 non-pitcher.