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Ryan O'Donnell

@rodonnell.bsky.social

executive director @dataforprogress.org | previously: barack obama aoc jamaal bowman seiu etc | he/him https://linktr.ee/rodonnell

60 Posts1619 Follower 135 Folgt

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · 3w ago

NEW DFP Insights from @rodonnell.bsky.social: Unity and enthusiasm in 2026 and 2028 require the Dem establishment to accept primary wins by DSA-aligned candidates, not treat them as problems to manage. Rejecting the DSA would be yet another sign the status quo is misaligned with Dem voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 4w ago

the swing voters who will decide the midterms do not want democrats to sound more like republicans

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 4w ago

NEW: Our first report on the swing voters of the 2026 midterms finds that when they are asked which policies would make them definitely vote for a Democrat, the most selected option is “raise taxes on the wealthy,” followed by “create a Medicare for All health care system.”

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Swing Voters Say Raising Taxes on the Wealthy Would Move Their Vote to Democrats.
Description: Which of these policies would make you definitely vote for a Democratic candidate in an upcoming election? Please select up to three options.
Raise taxes on the wealthy — 28%
Create a Medicare for All health care system — 24%
Ban artificial intelligence from setting prices or wages based on personal data — 21%
Restrict private utility companies from passing unreasonable costs on to customers — 20%
Raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour — 19%
Stop providing military aid and weapons to Israel — 17%
Increase border security — 17%
Nothing would make me definitely vote for a Democratic candidate — 16%
Invest in building new affordable housing — 13%
Increase oil and gas drilling — 12%
Ban transgender women from playing women's sports — 12%
Increase protections for abortion — 10%

May 15–June 21, 2026 surveys with 447 respondent interviews of U.S. swing voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 6mo ago

public opinion is still divided on trans issues, but research can help us find paths to fight back. when you name the government overreach, voters are not supportive of blanket bans on gender-related care:

Way to Win @waytowinus.bsky.social · 8mo ago

The politics we have as Americans ultimately is up to us. We can choose for our democracy to be a dreary march to the drab center or running over groups of people with a metaphorical bus. Or we can choose an imagination battle that realigns the center so we can fight and build on favorable terrain.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 9mo ago

zohran's election wasn't just a quirk of NYC — his policies are popular nationwide. voters want to see moral conviction and concrete plans to lower costs

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 9mo ago

NEW DFP Insight: Voters everywhere respond when a candidate connects economic populism to clear, actionable goals. Zohran Mamdani's policies are key examples — and they have popular appeal nationwide. www.dataforprogress.org/insights/202...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Nationwide Support Key Planks of Zohran Mamdani's Platform.
Description: Do you support or oppose each of the following policy proposals?
Speeding up the approval process to build affordable housing — Support: 83%, Oppose: 12%
Penalizing landlords who significantly increase rent or violate tenant protections — Support: 82%, Oppose: 12%
Cutting fines and fees for small businesses — Support: 70%, Oppose: 15%
Adding a 2 percent tax on income over $1 million — Support: 72%, Oppose: 18%
Raising taxes on corporations — Support: 72%, Oppose: 19%
Creating new violence de-escalation programs and mental health teams to respond to certain 911 calls instead of the police — Support: 71%, Oppose: 19%
Spending funds to provide free child care for every child from infancy through age 3 — Support: 65%, Oppose: 25%

October 31–November 3, 2025 survey of 1,228 U.S. likely voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I’m deeply honored to lead Data for Progress into our next chapter. The point of our research is not to determine what our values should be, but how to fight for our values most effectively. Excited to keep working with our amazing, dedicated team to sharpen our strategy.

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 9mo ago

We are thrilled to announce that @rodonnell.bsky.social has been named the next executive director of Data for Progress! Ryan is an expert in survey methodology with a long history in progressive and union politics — he has worked with DFP since 2019 to shape our electoral polling.

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · 10mo ago

NEW: The government shutdown and ceasefire in Gaza were the top stories breaking through to voters from Oct. 10-13. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/10...

Horizontal bar chart titled “Most Heard News Story: Oct. 10–13, 2025.” It shows the results of an open-ended survey question asking U.S. likely voters what news story they heard about most recently. The top responses are:

Government shutdown — 25%

Ceasefire in Gaza — 22%

[All other items] — 11%

Immigration / Deportations — 6%

Nothing — 5%

National Guard / Chicago / Portland — 5%

Tariffs — 4%

Crime — 4%

Charlie Kirk assassination — 3%

Nobel Prize — 2%

General comments about Trump administration — 2%

Blank / Unintelligible — 2%

Don’t know — 2%

Tennessee explosion — 1%

Weather / Climate — 1%

James Comey / Letitia James indictments — 1%

Foreign policy (not Israel / Gaza) — 1%

Epstein — 1%.
Survey conducted October 10–13, 2025, among 1,217 likely voters by Data for Progress.

Zeteo @zeteo.com · 12mo ago

“Voters across party lines oppose Israel blocking food & medical aid in Gaza, & want Trump to demand that Israel let aid into Gaza.” @rodonnell.bsky.social, interim executive director of @dataforprogress.org, writes about American voters growing critical of Israel. Read: zeteo.com/p/poll-ameri...

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

surprise! we too find the republican budget bill is *incredibly unpopular* — truly wild to watch so many house republicans willing to torch their own seats for trump’s ego, all while stripping their constituents of health coverage to fund tax cuts for billionaires

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

After reading a description of the bill, voters oppose it by a -19-point margin. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/7/...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: A Majority of Voters Oppose the Republican Budget Bill.
Description: Lawmakers in Congress are proposing a tax and spending bill. It would: Extend tax cuts for all individuals and corporations, with most of these benefiting high-income households Remove taxes on tips and overtime pay, and increase the Child Tax Credit by $500 per child for most families Cut over $700 billion from Medicaid and $300 billion from Affordable Care Act subsidies Cut over $300 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food assistance) Increase military and border security spending by more than $200 billion in total Add about $3 trillion dollars to the national debt Do you support or oppose this proposal?
All likely voters — Support: 38%, Oppose: 57%
Democrat — Support: 12%, Oppose: 84%
Independent / Third party — Support: 37%, Oppose: 55%
Republican — Support: 65%, Oppose: 30%
Persuadable voter — Support: 28%, Oppose: 65%

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · last yr.

New DFP Insights from @rodonnell.bsky.social: "Mamdani’s campaign showcased how Democrats can reach disaffected voters by acknowledging our political and economic systems are broken and demonstrating that they will actually fight to help fix them." www.dataforprogress.org/insights/202...

Zohran Mamdani’s Victory Shows That Economic Populism Is a Winner

By running on economic populism, Democrats can show voters that they are offering bold solutions that will make life easier and create a more just economy.

dataforprogress.org

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

lots of good stuff in the new poll with zeteo — we also ran a conjoint test (iykyk) and the most favored profile for the 2028 dem nominee: a 47-year-old Black woman who’s governed a state and is an economic populist. if only this person existed

Zeteo@zeteo.com · last yr.

Which Democrat could take on MAGA in 2028? Zeteo + @mehdirhasan.bsky.social, and @dataforprogress.org conducted an EXCLUSIVE poll — Who would Democrats vote for? Which characteristics will they prioritize? Read about all the results: zeteo.com/p/exclusive-...

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

we also tested favorables for a wide range of democrats — obama has the highest fav at 92%. fetterman has the highest unfav at 36%

Zeteo@zeteo.com · last yr.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

we tested a whole lot of names for the 2028 democratic primary with zeteo — considering vs not considering tells you way more than an early ballot test: cory booker currently leads at +68. stephen a smith finishes last at -18

Zeteo@zeteo.com · last yr.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

i was surprised when we asked voters what news story stood out most during peak “signalgate” coverage — at best, it was tied with tariffs and losing to “nothing” this week, though, trump’s tariffs were overwhelmingly the top story

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

In late March, there was no consensus about what news story people were hearing most. Trump's recent sweeping tariff announcement changed that — this is what it looks like when a news story truly breaks through.

Time series chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Sharp Increase in Voters Hearing About Tariffs.
Description: Open-ended question: In the past week, what's the one specific news story you heard, saw, or read about the most?

Tariffs — Increased, with the highest response reported on Apr 08, 2025 (47%) and the lowest response recorded on Mar 26, 2025 (16%).
National security leak — Decreased, with the highest response reported on Mar 26, 2025 (16%) and the lowest response recorded on Apr 08, 2025 (1%).
DOGE / cuts to Social Security and other benefits / Elon Musk — Decreased, with the highest response reported on Mar 26, 2025 (8%) and the lowest response recorded on Apr 08, 2025 (5%).
Read full piece at: https://www.dataforprogress.org/insights/2025/4/11/our-polling-measured-what-broke-through-and-it-was-tariffs

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

after the shutdown vote, we asked voters how democrats in washington handle political fights. the most common response? "weak"

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

voters often say they support mass deportations in theory—until they have to think about the actual people being deported. our research keeps proving it: cruelty only polls well in the abstract. make it real, and support crumbles

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: Voters oppose deportations of various undocumented immigrants — including those who have lower-wage jobs and a shorter length of stay in the U.S. — when presented with real-world case examples.

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Oppose Deportations in Every Case Tested.
Description: Below are descriptions of undocumented immigrants who might be affected by deportation policies. For each, please state whether you think they should be deported or not.
An undocumented immigrant who came to the U.S. 20 years ago and works as a head chef at a restaurant — Should not be deported: 66%, Not sure: 12%, Should be deported: 22%
An undocumented immigrant who came to the U.S. 10 years ago and works as a registered nurse — Should not be deported: 65%, Not sure: 8%, Should be deported: 27%
An undocumented immigrant who came to the U.S. 30 years ago and works as a home health care aide — Should not be deported: 59%, Not sure: 16%, Should be deported: 25%

See full results at: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/3/12/voters-oppose-deportations-of-undocumented-immigrants-regardless-of-their-job-or-years-in-the-us

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

one funny thing about being part of an openly progressive polling outfit: plenty of center/right folks assume every poll we release skews left. but bad data isn’t just wrong—it’s useless. cooking numbers would hurt the movement, not help it

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

new @dataforprogress.org data confirms what you’ve always felt: democrats criticize their own party way more than republicans do

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

most voters have a sense of what oligarchy means — and it’s probably good bernie is helping teach the rest, since a plurality thinks we're becoming one

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: After learning the definition of oligarchy, 67% of Democrats and 61% of Independents say the U.S. is becoming more oligarchic. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/3/...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Democrats and Independents Say the U.S. Is Moving Toward an Oligarchy.
Description: Which of the following do you think best describes the direction the United States is headed?
All likely voters — Moving toward an oligarchy: 48%, Staying as it is today: 17%, Moving toward a more democratic system: 25%, Don't know: 10%
Democrat — Moving toward an oligarchy: 67%, Staying as it is today: 11%, Moving toward a more democratic system: 15%, Don't know: 7%
Independent / Third party — Moving toward an oligarchy: 61%, Staying as it is today: 14%, Moving toward a more democratic system: 14%, Don't know: 11%
Republican — Moving toward an oligarchy: 23%, Staying as it is today: 24%, Moving toward a more democratic system: 41%, Don't know: 12%

February 28–March 2, 2025 survey of 1,189 likely voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

whenever you highlight real people affected by trump's immigration policies, voters consistently choose compassion over cruelty

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: When asked about the nuances of immigration policy, voters prefer more humane approaches. For example, a majority of voters think ICE should not be allowed to make arrests at sensitive locations like schools and churches. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Do Not Approve of ICE Arrests at Most Sensitive Locations.
Description: Below are locations where undocumented immigrants might be arrested by agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). For each location, please state whether you believe arrests should be allowed.
The site of a funeral, wedding, or other public religious ceremony — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 56%, Not sure: 13%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 31%
Churches, synagogues, mosques, or other institutions of worship — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 56%, Not sure: 13%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 31%
Schools — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 54%, Not sure: 11%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 34%
Places where children gather, such as playgrounds, recreation centers, or school bus stops — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 54%, Not sure: 12%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 34%
Hospitals — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 50%, Not sure: 13%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 37%
Social services establishments, such as domestic violence shelters, victim services centers, and food pantries — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 48%, Not sure: 13%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 39%
The site of a public demonstration like a march or parade — ICE should not be allowed to make arrests in this location: 32%, Not sure: 15%, ICE should be allowed to make arrests in this location: 53%

February 14–15, 2025 survey of 1,215 U.S. likely voters.

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: Forty-five percent of voters say that Elon Musk has made them less likely to buy a Tesla, while only 17% say that they are more likely to purchase one. www.dataforprogress.org/datasets/pol...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Democrats and Independents Say Elon Musk Has Made Them Less Likely to Buy a Tesla.
Description: Has Elon Musk made you more or less likely to buy or lease a Tesla?
All likely voters — More likely: 17%, Less likely: 45%
Democrat — More likely: 13%, Less likely: 66%
Independent / Third party — More likely: 12%, Less likely: 50%
Republican — More likely: 23%, Less likely: 21%

February 14–15, 2025 survey of 1,215 likely voters.

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: A majority of Democratic voters (65%), and an even larger majority of Independents who lean Democratic (80%), say the party is not doing enough and needs to fight harder against the Trump administration. www.dataforprogress.org/datasets/pol...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Democrats and Independents Who Lean Democratic Want the Party to Fight Harder Against Trump.
Description: Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
Response Options:
A) The Democratic Party is not doing enough to stand up to Donald Trump and his administration and needs to fight harder.
B) Don't know
C) The Democratic Party could do a better job resisting Donald Trump and his administration, but overall is doing a decent job.
All likely voters — 67% chose A, 4% chose B, 29% chose C
Democrat — 65% chose A, 4% chose B, 31% chose C
Democratic-leaning Independent — 80% chose A, 4% chose B, 16% chose C

February 8–9, 2025 survey of 542 likely Democratic voters and Independent voters who lean towards Democrats.

Catherine Fraser @cathfraser.bsky.social · last yr.

Americans against ethnic cleansing. @dataforprogress.org's @rodonnell.bsky.social in @zeteo.com today: zeteo.com/p/trump-gaza...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Oppose Trump's Proposal to Take Over and Own Gaza and Forcibly Resettle Its Residents.
Description: This week, President Trump called for the U.S. to "take over" and "own" Gaza, and transform it from a "demolition site" into the "Riviera of the Middle East." This would require forcibly resettling the roughly 1.8 million Palestinians who live in Gaza into neighboring countries. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
All likely voters — Support: 28%, Oppose: 64%
Democrat — Support: 10%, Oppose: 86%
Independent / Third party — Support: 23%, Oppose: 63%
Republican — Support: 46%, Oppose: 43%

February 8–9, 2025 survey of 1,201 U.S. likely voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

a plurality of independents say trump's admin is "chaotic" (45%) — with "effective" a distant second at 19%

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last yr.

NEW: When given a list of terms to describe Trump's administration so far, a plurality of voters select "chaotic." www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Choose "Chaotic" to Describe Trump's Administration.
Description: Which of the following terms best describes your view of the Trump administration's performance so far?
All likely voters — Effective: 25%, Decisive: 12%, Organized: 8%, Don't know: 3%, Chaotic: 37%, Ineffective: 7%, Confusing: 6%
Democrat — Effective: 5%, Decisive: 2%, Organized: 3%, Don't know: 4%, Chaotic: 63%, Ineffective: 15%, Confusing: 7%
Independent / Third party — Effective: 19%, Decisive: 12%, Organized: 7%, Don't know: 3%, Chaotic: 45%, Ineffective: 6%, Confusing: 9%
Republican — Effective: 47%, Decisive: 21%, Organized: 14%, Don't know: 2%, Chaotic: 10%, Ineffective: 1%, Confusing: 4%

January 31–February 2, 2025 survey of 1,205 U.S. likely voters.

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · last yr.

the only thing worse for eric adams than being under indictment during the nyc democratic primary is getting bailed out by donald trump’s justice department

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · last yr.

The Department of Justice is moving to drop the federal corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 2y ago

feels like we’re going to be using this chart a lot

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 2y ago

Americans largely expect President-elect Trump to follow through on promises to carry out mass deportations and raise tariffs on China and Mexico, a New YorkTimes/Ipsos poll found. Read more: nyti.ms/4hl9Wiz

A chart titled: "Poll: What Will Trump Get Done?" 81% of respondents said he was likely to increase tariffs on imports from China and Mexico

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · 2y ago

NEW: Voters strongly support major health care reforms, from expanding Medicare and Medicaid to a public option and Medicare for All — and they remain supportive even after being told they’d pay more in taxes. www.dataforprogress.org/datasets/sup...

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress.
Title: Voters Support Serious Reform to Health Care Policy, Even if They Have to Pay More in Taxes.

Read the full poll at: https://www.dataforprogress.org/datasets/support-for-health-care-reforms

Data for Progress @dataforprogress.org · 2y ago

NEW: Our comprehensive post-election report examines the factors that led to Trump's win, using longitudinal data collected throughout 2024. Primarily, we find that voters were upset with the economy and the status quo.

Trump Voters Say They Voted for Him Because He Is a Change From the Biden-Harris Administration and Will Secure the Border.
Description: Which of the following best describes why you voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election?
Response Options:
A) He is a much-needed change from the current Biden-Harris administration
B) He will secure the border and deport illegal immigrants
C) He will lower costs
D) He will keep jobs in America
E) He will stop extremism around gender, race, and sexuality in our culture
F) He will lower my taxes
G) Other
H) None of these
2024 Trump voters — 36% chose A, 26% chose B, 14% chose C, 10% chose D, 5% chose E, 3% chose F, 5% chose G, 1% chose H
Independent / Third party — 46% chose A, 21% chose B, 10% chose C, 9% chose D, 3% chose E, 2% chose F, 8% chose G, 0% chose H
Republican — 34% chose A, 28% chose B, 15% chose C, 9% chose D, 5% chose E, 4% chose F, 4% chose G, 1% chose H

November 15–18, 2024 survey of 612 likely voters who voted for Trump

Ryan O'Donnell @rodonnell.bsky.social · 2y ago

the closest i get to his thinking here is that AP votecast shows a 31% *increase* in his 18-29 support (36% in 2020 → 47% in 2024). trump just doesn’t understand the difference between percent and percentage points—and on top of that forgot the actual number

Will Bunch@willbunch.bsky.social · 2y ago

Trump claims that he won the youth vote by 34 points, which is a total wtf lie. About 45 seconds later, it was up to “35-36 points”