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Catherine Fraser

@cathfraser.bsky.social

climate @dataforprogress.org | she/her https://dataforclimateprogress.substack.com/

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Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · last wk.

NEW: Do Democrats funded by AIPAC pay an electoral penalty in a general election? We find that a Democrat funded by AIPAC performs significantly worse against a Republican than a Democrat who “rejects all outside financial support from industry groups and PACs.”

"In a Matchup Against a Republican, a Democrat Funded by AIPAC Underperforms a Democrat Who Rejects Outside PAC Money." In this experiment, respondents were shown hypothetical general election matchups between a Republican and a Democratic candidate, both with a randomized source of outside funding. The chart shows how each funding source affects a Democratic candidate's average performance relative to a Democratic candidate who "rejects all financial support from outside industry groups and PACs." Planned Parenthood funding is associated with a +1.8pp effect. Nurses unions: -0.8pp. Police unions: -2.0pp. Real estate development industry: -2.7pp. Oil and gas industry: -3.1pp. National Rifle Association (NRA): -4.2pp. Pharmaceutical industry: -4.9pp. Cryptocurrency industry: -4.9pp. Artificial Intelligence industry: -5.3pp. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC): -6.2pp. July 17–19, 2026 survey of 1,207 U.S. likely voters. From Data for Progress.
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 4w ago

When provided with a list of possible criticisms of the Democratic Party, swing voters' biggest issues are that “leadership is too old and out of touch” (32%) and the party is “not doing enough to lower costs” (32%).

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress. Title: Swing Voters' Top Concerns About the Democratic Party Are Out-of-Touch Leadership and Inaction on Costs. Description: What's the biggest issue you have with the Democratic Party? Please select up to three options. Leadership is too old and out of touch — 32% Not doing enough to lower costs — 32% Too focused on cultural and social issues — 29% Too weak on issues of crime and national security — 28% Weak or ineffective opposition to Republicans — 26% Doesn't follow through on its promises — 24% Too beholden to corporate donors and special interests — 23% Poor messaging and communication — 17% I don't have a problem with the Democratic Party — 11% Something else — 5% May 15–June 21, 2026 surveys with 447 respondent interviews of U.S. swing voters.
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 4w ago

NEW: Our first report on the swing voters of the 2026 midterms finds that when they are asked which policies would make them definitely vote for a Democrat, the most selected option is “raise taxes on the wealthy,” followed by “create a Medicare for All health care system.”

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress. Title: Swing Voters Say Raising Taxes on the Wealthy Would Move Their Vote to Democrats. Description: Which of these policies would make you definitely vote for a Democratic candidate in an upcoming election? Please select up to three options. Raise taxes on the wealthy — 28% Create a Medicare for All health care system — 24% Ban artificial intelligence from setting prices or wages based on personal data — 21% Restrict private utility companies from passing unreasonable costs on to customers — 20% Raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour — 19% Stop providing military aid and weapons to Israel — 17% Increase border security — 17% ​​Nothing would make me definitely vote for a Democratic candidate — 16% Invest in building new affordable housing — 13% Increase oil and gas drilling — 12% Ban transgender women from playing women's sports — 12% Increase protections for abortion — 10% May 15–June 21, 2026 surveys with 447 respondent interviews of U.S. swing voters.
The Advocate@advocate.com · 2mo ago

Only 1 percent of likely voters name LGBTQ+ issues as their top concern, but most still prefer candidates who support LGBTQ+ rights over those who oppose them, a new Data for Progress poll finds.

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Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 2mo ago

NEW: As #SCOTUS prepares to release its remaining opinions, voters oppose the Republican position in three cases. On birthright citizenship, a majority of voters (55%) think the U.S. should grant citizenship to all children, regardless of their parents' citizenship status.

Bar chart of polling data from Data For Progress. Title: Voters Support Birthright Citizenship. Description: Which of the following comes closest to your view? Response Options: A) The U.S. should grant automatic citizenship to all children born in the country, regardless of their parents' citizenship status. B) Don't know C) The U.S. should restrict citizenship at birth to children whose parents are U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents. All likely voters — 55% chose A, 5% chose B, 40% chose C Democrat — 78% chose A, 5% chose B, 16% chose C Independent / Third party — 54% chose A, 8% chose B, 38% chose C Republican — 33% chose A, 3% chose B, 63% chose C May 29–31, 2026 survey of 1,163 U.S. likely voters.
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 3mo ago

Some goods, like utilities, housing, and healthcare, are inelastic — voters report paying more, but show little flexibility in buying less or opting for cheaper versions. However, more voters report cutting back their spending on household goods, gas, and groceries.

Grouped bar chart from Data for Progress titled "Voters Report Cutting Back Most on Groceries, Gas, and Household Goods." Shows two bars per good — share paying more (dark blue) and share buying less, switching to cheaper substitutes, or stopped buying entirely (gray) — from a May 8–11, 2026 survey of 1,147 U.S. likely voters. Groceries and food: 79% paying more, 41% cutting back. Gas: 79% paying more, 29% cutting back. Utility bills: 66% paying more, 18% cutting back. Household goods: 53% paying more, 38% cutting back. Healthcare: 50% paying more, 18% cutting back. Housing costs: 48% paying more, 15% cutting back. Cars or car payments: 30% paying more, 18% cutting back.
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 3mo ago

Economic pessimism has persisted throughout Trump's second term. A higher percentage of voters today say inflation and the economy in general are getting worse. Voters also feel worse about other employment-related issues, including job security, job availability, and wages.

Line chart from Data for Progress titled "Share Reporting Things Getting Worse for People Like Me." Shows the share of U.S. likely voters saying each of seven economic aspects is getting worse, from January 2025 to May 2026, across 14 surveys. Inflation or costs of goods remained highest throughout, at 66–78%. The stock market spiked to roughly 58% during the April 2025 market turmoil before falling back to 38%. The economy in general rose from 58% to 67%. Job security, availability of jobs, and wages trended upward overall. Taxes remained relatively flat, around 55–60%.
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 3mo ago

“When voters learn about Kennedy’s efforts to tear down these vital services for millions of American seniors and disabled people, they immediately shift their opinions against him by 26 points on net.” Read the full piece from Matthew Cortland here: www.dataforprogress.org/insights/202...

Attack Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Weakest Point in His Record: Medicaid Cuts

There is an overwhelming advantage to attacking Kennedy on his administration’s cuts to Medicaid and home care services.

dataforprogress.org

Matthew Cortland (they)@matthewcort.land · 3mo ago

Why does disability policy matter? Medicaid is the program that pays for the home care services that allow disabled people — kids, adults, seniors — to live in their own homes, with their families, instead of being locked up in institutions. RFK Jr's attacks on home care are incredibly unpopular

Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 3mo ago

NEW DFP Insights from @matthewcort.land: “While attacking Kennedy on his anti-vaccine policies is still convincing to voters, there is an overwhelming advantage to attacking him on his administration’s cuts to Medicaid and home care services.”

Description: Initial ask: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Voters were then split randomly into two groups. Each saw one of the following messages, and was asked again whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Vaccine message: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as U.S. health secretary, has withdrawn longstanding guidelines for routine childhood vaccines and claimed autism is linked to vaccines and Tylenol. Medicaid message: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as U.S. health secretary, has campaigned to cut funding for Medicaid, including home care services for seniors and people with disabilities that allow them to stay in their own homes. Initial — Favorable: 45%, Unfavorable: 47% Vaccine message — Favorable: 42%, Unfavorable: 50% Medicaid message — Favorable: 31%, Unfavorable: 59% Read the full poll at: https://www.dataforprogress.org/insights/2026/5/14/attack-robert-f-kennedy-jr-on-the-weakest-point-in-his-record-medicaid-cuts
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 3mo ago

A progressive affordability agenda is overwhelmingly popular with voters across the political spectrum. Each of the policies tested has support from at least 3 in 5 voters — including a majority of persuadable and Trump 2024 voters. www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/4/...

Crosstab chart of polling data from Data For Progress. Title: Key Voting Groups Support a Progressive Agenda Focused on Lowering Costs and Taking on Corporations. Description: Lawmakers in Congress are proposing the following policies. For each policy, please say if you support or oppose it. See crosstabs for full question results: http://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2026/4/dfp_progressive_affordability_policies.pdf
Congressman Greg Casar@repcasar.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Today we are announcing the Progressive Caucus’ New Affordability Agenda. Donald Trump lied about bringing down costs. We need an actual plan to make things cheaper by taking on corporations ripping people off. Under this plan, every American family saves money. Here's how -->

IMEU Policy Project@imeupolicy.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW POLLS: Last week, 40 Senators voted for resolutions to block weapons to Israel. A majority of voters across Arizona, California, Colorado, and Michigan - including the vast majority of Democrats and Independents - supported those resolutions. More findings below 🔽

IMEU POLICY PROJECT Majority of Arizona, California, Colorado, and Michigan Voters Support Blocking Bombs To Israel MI CO CA AZ
Data for Progress@dataforprogress.org · 4mo ago

Our poll with @imeupolicy.bsky.social finds that voters in multiple states support blocking weapons transfers to Israel, including California (67%), Colorado (61%), Arizona (58%), and Michigan (53%). www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/4/...

Image description Table titled "Independent Voters in Multiple States Support Blocking Weapons Transfers to Israel." In January, the Trump administration announced the delivery of over 20,000 bombs to Israel, including bombs used in military operations in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon. The U.S. Senate will soon hold a vote on whether to stop the transfer. Respondents were asked whether they would approve or disapprove of the Senate voting to stop the transfer; percentages reflect those who strongly or somewhat approve. In California, 79% of Democrats, 76% of Independents/third party, and 35% of Republicans approve. In Colorado, 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents/third party, and 36% of Republicans approve. In Arizona, 74% of Democrats, 62% of Independents/third party, and 35% of Republicans approve. In Michigan, 67% of Democrats, 60% of Independents/third party, and 30% of Republicans approve. Based on April 6–13, 2026 surveys of 2,164 likely voters across AZ, CA, CO, and MI.
Todd Tucker@toddntucker.com · 4mo ago

NEW from @rooseveltinstitute.org: 🔥Major report from @betonyjones.bsky.social @joepeck.co.uk on how Biden pursued pro-labor clean energy policy. 🔥Me 👇on why this matters, and what a new World Bank about-face on industrial policy tells us about this era rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/what-th...

What the Biden Admin’s Labor-Forward Clean Energy Strategy Tells Us About Inclusive Industrial Policies

As a surprising new World Bank report further mainstreams industrial policy, the debate over incorporating labor standards persists.

rooseveltinstitute.org