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Ronan Lyons

@ronanlyons.bsky.social

Housing, cities, history. Professor in Economics at Trinity College Dublin, Data Lead at CEPH. Dad of 3, husband of 1, soccer coach, rugby fan. ronanlyons.com and ronanlyons.substack.com.

342 Posts1854 Follower380 Folgt
Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · 11mo ago

My theory is that this very important glitch in public economic reasoning stems from the length of time it takes to build homes (and that homes are built when prices are rising).

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Building more housing reduces housing costs and is good. But one reason this isn’t the basis for a massive political movement is that most people think building more housing actually raises prices. You might even say building more housing isn’t very Popular

• TAVERN RESEARCH 24. Do you believe that increasing the number of homes in your community will lower prices or raise prices? All Gender Party Race/Ethnicity Education Male Female D R I White Hispanic Black Asian/Other College Non-college n2121 n964 n1157 n682 n760 n679 n1437 n152 n364 n168 n659 n1462 Lower prices a lot 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 5% 6% Lower prices slightly 19% 22% 17% 17% 20% 21% 20% 18% 13% 26% 24% 16% Raise prices slightly 28% 33% 24% 31% 31% 22% 28% 27% 39% 22% 30% 27% Raise prices a lot 16% 14% 17% 13% 15% 20% 14% 19% 17% 22% 14% 17% Not sure 32% 25% 38% 34% 28% 32% 33% 33% 27% 24% 27% 35% Total Lower prices 24% 28% 21% 22% 26% 26% 25% 21% 17% 32% 29% 22% Total Raise prices 44% 47% 41% 414% 46% 42% 42% 45% 56% 45% 44% 44% Net Total Lower prices -20% -20% -19% -22% -20% -16% -17% -24% -39% -13% -15% -22%
Anon Opin@anonopin.bsky.social · 11mo ago

People should be restricted to one online opinion a day. That would increase the quality and thought going into each opinion, and reduce the numbers of mindless knee jerk reaction takes spoiling the internet.

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Ireland has ~1.5 million homes suitable for families. Ireland is very unlikely to ever have more than 0.8m families (with kids under 18). Unbelievable that anyone paying attention to the housing crisis could have missed that the crisis is/will be for 1-2 person households. www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...

Why new apartment standards won't mean housing more people

Half of the households in Ireland have children, yet there is no plan for where, and how, the next generations will live

rte.ie

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Ireland has overtaken another EU member state, in population, for the first time since joining the EEC back in 1972. At current trends, Ireland will overtake Finland in 2028. (And Scotland maybe in 2027, just about.)

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Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Important evidence on why housing is not like other markets - not because demand and supply don't work but because voters don't believe they do (despite the evidence). Likely key here is the long lag required to get new housing supply v other goods - so extra supply is associated with higher prices.

Kevin Collins@kwcollins.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Interesting findings from @cselmendorf.bsky.social, Nall, and @stano.bsky.social in JEP. There is a widespread lack of understanding on how supply of housing affects housing costs, even while the same survey respondents understand other supply-cost relationships pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Ciarán Casey@ciaranmcasey.bsky.social · last yr.

Births weren't officially registered in Ireland until 1864 and then the census returns were burnt in the Four Courts, making it really hard for people in the 1920s/30s to prove their ages to get a pension. The acceptable alternative documentation included dated birthday cards

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Journal of Public Economics@jpube.bsky.social · last yr.

Why do women engage in sex work, especially given the health risks associated with the market? This paper shows that during a historical recession, the number of sex work establishments rose, suggesting that economic hardship may drive women into the market.

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Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · last yr.

What determines electoral success in Ireland? Evidence from the last 30 years says being a woman reduces re-election chances by ten percentage points. Don't be in the out-going government (unless you're a Senior Minister). And Being Junior Minister, it turns out, does nothing.

Determinants of Incumbent Electoral Success: Evidence from 30 Years of Irish Elections | The Economic and Social Review

We examine the determinants of incumbent electoral success among members of Ireland’s lower house of parliament, Dáil Éireann, over a time-period covering seven General Elections (1992 to 2020). We utilise multiple sources to create a dataset linking incumbent politicians’ electoral outcomes to personal characteristics, constituency and election-specific characteristics, as well as a range of constituency-level socioeconomic variables. Our analysis reveals a number of important factors in determining the re-election success of politicians. Notably, being a woman reduces an incumbent’s chances of re-election by 10 percentage points, even after controlling for a wide range of other potentially important factors. Holding a senior ministerial position is found to significantly boost an incumbent’s re-election prospects, while being a junior minister has no impact. However, absent a senior ministerial position, being a member of a ruling government party or coalition is associated with significantly lower re-election success. We construct a measure of competitiveness and find that an incumbent in a more competitive constituency is less likely to be elected, while past performance, as measured by the order in which an incumbent is elected in the previous contest, is found to be an important predictor of current success.

esr.ie

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · last yr.

Easy to miss with everything else that's going on but ... the world's greatest ever telescope has just started releasing its first images!

NSF–DOE Rubin Observatory@vrubinobs.bsky.social · last yr.

Want to download everything from today? Whether you want a new desktop background or an image to send to friends and family, we've got you covered! Head to rubinobservatory.org/gallery/collections/first-look-gallery and take your pick 🌌🔭🧪 (...or just download everything, no need to choose!)

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · last yr.

"hey Ireland, you get a special mention as a close trading partner of the US in this paper about the impact of tariffs." "oh, is it good news?" "..."

NBER@nber.org · last yr.

Using a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent US tariff increases on imports from various countries, from Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate, and Jose P. Vasquez https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · last yr.

In my latest piece for The Currency, I consider what the US's turn away from international integration might mean for Ireland, using a long-run perspective. (Yes, I get to talk about the great linen boom of the 18th century again.)

Ireland’s prosperity has always ridden global waves. Now the tide may be turning - The Currency

Three centuries ago, in the 1720s, Ireland was a decade or two into an economic transformation, from a relative backwater to an integral part of the world economy.  As of 1700, Ireland made up about 1...

thecurrency.news

Ronan Lyons@ronanlyons.bsky.social · last yr.

As a Leinster fan, bitterly disappointed to have lost. But what a game - neutrals must have really enjoyed it 😂😭. Some ref decisions I didn't understand at all but the better team definitely won. I'll be wishing them well for the final. Onwards and upwards for Leinster. Back to the URC!

William Dalrymple@willdalrymple.bsky.social · last yr.

"This, perhaps, is The Golden Road’s most urgent message for our times: we have always been a deeply globalized, interconnected, mongrel world. Those who continue to harken for a “pure” past will find it only by fictionalizing it."