Sam Peak

@sampeak.bsky.social

Immigration and Labor Mobility at the Economic Innovation Group.

Yes! This is something that I wish hadn’t been memory-holed, because it shows how our commentary class works. Not only did pundits widely assert that gas prices control elections, it was treated as an absolute obvious certainty. And then, when it turned out wrong, the claim was instantly abandoned.

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The World Cup will be the biggest international event the U.S. has hosted since before 9/11. If the State Department doesn't get its act together, this could be a major national security crisis and a historic bureaucratic debacle. 🧵

Trump's tariffs will raise prices for USA-made cars too, not just foreign imports. That's because: 1) a lot of inputs that go into US-made cars come from abroad (esp from Mexico/Canada) 2) When foreign competitors' prices go up, domestic producers often raise their prices too

NEW! The Trump administration appears to have sent a married father with NO CRIMINAL RECORD in any country to rot in a prison in El Salvador because of a PAPERWORK ERROR. This man doesn’t even have tattoos! But his paperwork has two different peoples’ ID numbers listed and the wrong last name!

The U.S. government claims on Reyes Mota's I-213 form, a document the Department of Homeland Security uses to support that someone is deportable, that he "may be a Tren de Aragua associate." But in those same documents, the government says he has no criminal records or immigration history in the United States. The government also uses someone else's last name in several parts of the document, identifies him with female pronouns, and uses two different unique identification numbers that immigration authorities use to keep track of individuals, raising questions about the reliability of Trump officials accusations against him.
Miami Herald@miamiherald.com · last yr.

Frengel Reyes Mota was supposed to be dealing with his ongoing asylum case as he fought for his chance to stay in the United States. Suddenly, he instead found himself locked up in a mega prison thousands of miles away.

Lutnick claims to have already sold 1,000 "gold cards" for $5 million per card. In case you missed it, there is no gold card. It doesn't exist. So he is just reporting that people are willing to give Trump $5 million for.... (wink wink) "nothing"

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Tidbit from Natasha Sarin: IRS's customer phone service is deteriorating, in part because employees are spending all day queued up to use shared agency computers so they can respond to DOGE’s requests for weekly emails on 5 bullet points detailing their work www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | DOGE says it’s saving $100 billion. It’s about to lose a lot more.

Cuts to the IRS will backfire by giving tax evaders a free pass.

washingtonpost.com

! The Trump administration wants ICE to build four detention centers each with 10,000 bed capacity. Only the LA County Jail and Rikers are larger, and that's about the size of the Cook County and Harris County jails. That would cost tens of billions and require thousands of new personnel.

According to the CBP briefing documents, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is preparing to more than double its detention capacity by opening four new 10,000-bed facilities and 14 smaller sites with space for 700 to 1,000 people. The Department of Defense may also utilize military bases as holding facilities, the document says. Trump officials have told lawmakers they will need billions of dollars in additional funding to meet the president’s deportation goals by ramping up ICE detention capacity.

I'm not liking the fearmongering over the birthright citizenship EO. People should at least provide context that it will be enjoined and struck down by the courts. There is plenty for people to be worried about, let's not add more shit.

Bernie staffer: "H-1Bs are cheap labor replacing Americans." Me: Actually when you adjust for age, H-1Bs make significantly more than their American counterparts. And they're among the top 10% of income earners. Bernie staffer: The fact that they're young is part of the scam!

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I have a lot of respect for @mattyglesias.bsky.social and Noah Smith, but if even they're convinced of the narrative that Biden destroyed the border by "loosening immigration policy" then I'm not sure what point there is in educating the general public on what actually happened.

The most basic way to check whether immigrants "bring crime" is to ask whether the share of the population that is foreign-born correlates in any way with the crime rate (it doesn't). This is such a simple analytical method that it was used all the way back in 1912! www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2...

TABLE V NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS COMPARED WITH TOTAL AND FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION, I850-I900. The table lists statistics for 6 census periods. A glance at the diagram shows that in i86o, when the rate of increase of the foreign-born population was at its apex, the rate of criminality was at its bottom. Toward I870 the rate of increase of the foreign born dropped, but the rate of increase of the number of convictions made a big jump. From i88o to I890 the rate of increase of the foreign born went up, at the same time the rate of increase of the number of convictions went down. From I890 to I900 the two movements were reversed. In short, an increase of the percentage of the foreign-born population is accompanied by a decrease of criminality, and vice versa.
David J. Bier@davidjbier.bsky.social · 2y ago

It's astounding how the anti-immigrant crime narrative has taken over, despite this: We've had the fastest increase in the immigrant share of the population in decades, and the fastest ever decline in the US homicide rate.

There are people in America who think all migration is caused by Joe Biden, George Soros, and Catholic Charities funding and flying people to random parts of America to permanently resettle. They don't want to ever fathom that people like having them there and even want to hire them.