Sam Winter-Levy
@samwl.bsky.social
Fellow @CarnegieEndow, Technology + International Affairs. Previously poli sci PhD @ Princeton, @ForeignAffairs, @TheEconomist.
My latest, with Alasdair Phillips-Robins, on how the Trump administration promised Gulf AI deals it couldn’t deliver, started a war that destroyed the economic case for the original bargain, then gave away all its leverage to compensate for the damage.
The Bulwark@thebulwark.com · 2d agoFor a president who talks endlessly about deal-making, giving away one of the crown jewels of American technology and getting nothing in return is a remarkable achievement:
On its current trajectory, the #AI Exports Program risks failing to serve both U.S. industry and foreign partners, write @samwl.bsky.social (Sam Winter-Levy) and Teddy Tawil. Here's how the administration can fix it:
It’s Not too Late to Fix the AI Exports Program
The administration must treat the program as economic statecraft rather than a vehicle for green-lighting deals industry would pursue anyway.
justsecurity.org
For the @washingtonpost.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers need to get smart about AI competition.
In @foreignaffairs.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers should navigate an AI revolution that threatens to leave them behind: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
The AI Divide
How U.S.-Chinese competition could leave most countries behind.
foreignaffairs.com
In @foreignaffairs.com, Anton Leicht and I wrote about how middle powers should navigate an AI revolution that threatens to leave them behind: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
The AI Divide
How U.S.-Chinese competition could leave most countries behind.
foreignaffairs.com
Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.
Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please. Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes. Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. " @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The End of Mutual Assured Destruction?
What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.” But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
justsecurity.org
The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI. @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next. #AIActionPlan
Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan
Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.
justsecurity.org
The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan. Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead. www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...
The Just Security Podcast: Decoding Trump’s AI Playbook: The AI Action Plan and What Comes Next
Joshua Geltzer, Jenny Marron and Sam Winter-Levy join Brianna Rosen on the show to discuss the Trump administration's U.S. AI Action Plan.
justsecurity.org
Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually? Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them. Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
foreignpolicy.com
In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:
The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage
Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.
foreignpolicy.com
Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe
Opinion | The gulf is not the place to build the world’s AI infrastructure
Drone threats make the UAE and Saudi Arabia the wrong homes for critical AI data centers.
wapo.st
What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world? @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
buff.ly
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race. Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next. www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...
What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf
Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.
justsecurity.org
AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks? Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
How to Gauge Whether Trump’s AI Chip Deals With Gulf Countries Are Any Good
Several key factors will hint at whether Trump used the United States’ considerable leverage around AI to minimize risk.
carnegieendowment.org
Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:
Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...
Some thoughts from me in the @washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
1/ The Trump admin may be about to greenlight the export of advanced AI chips to the Gulf. If it does so, it will place the most important technology of the 21st C at the whims of autocrats with expanding ties to China and interests very far from those of the US.
My conversation with @samwl.bsky.social moderated by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on how AI is re- shaping the world order. @carnegieeurope.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org. Part of the europe-inside-out podcast. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...
How AI Is Reshaping the Global Order | Europe Inside Out
Rym Momtaz, Sinan Ülgen, and Sam Winter-Levy examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping international politics and will define the future of the tech industry.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world: paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
USIP, the Wilson Center, and the Politics of Wrecking
I recently received this email from Nate Cavanaugh, listed as the “Acting Chairman and President” of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP): It cancelled a contract for a special r…
paulstaniland.com
In the wake of DeepSeek's market-jolting release, @carnegieendowment.org's Matt Sheehan and I explain why export controls almost certainly still matter, how the Chinese govt is likely to respond, and what this means for the U.S.-China AI race more broadly carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...
Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil
Two experts discuss the Chinese AI startup that’s causing global turbulence and what they’re watching for in the coming weeks.
carnegieendowment.org
Some more thoughts on the AI diffusion framework in @justsecurity.org. If the Trump admin keeps it—big if!—it gives them a ready-made new bargaining chip as leverage in international negotiations: www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
justsecurity.org
How widely should the US share its #AI technologies? Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social. www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...
The Future of the AI Diffusion Framework
The Biden administration's AI diffusion rule is another salvo in the United States' escalating AI competition with China.
justsecurity.org