Scot Hunter

@scothunter.bsky.social

Analyst @ Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Sociology PhD Univ. Stirling (2019-2024). Interested in communities and place, health inequalities and ethnic labour market penalties.

People with fewer community spaces, groups & activities are turning away from the two-party system in greater numbers. New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis of the recent elections shows that community need may be an even stronger predictor of anti-establishment voting than deprivation alone. 1/6

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Frustrated with the election pundits talking as if votes only 'swing' from one party to another. I did some analysis of the results, and my modelling (based on votes only, not polls) suggests that the largest movement since 2024 local elections (by a long way) is from 'Did Not Vote' -> Reform

A Sankey diagram, titled "Voter flows, UK local elections 2024 to 2026"

Your postcode should never determine whether your child reaches their first birthday, or whether alcohol takes you too soon. Today, two sets of data from the landed that tell a grim story (but not an inevitable one).

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The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25. ⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k ⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k ↔️child poverty stayed flat. More action needed! 1/7

An infographic saying that there were around 13.4 million people were in poverty in 2024/25, a rise of 500,000 in overall poverty between 2023/24 and 2024/25.  This was made up of:
4.0 million children (no change)
7.7 million working-age adults [up 300k]
1.7 million pensioners [up 200k]

Pride in Place’s commitment to community-led investment in neighbourhood is so needed. But new JRF analysis maps the areas overlooked for funding in England: disproportionately in the north and some ranked as facing among the greatest challenges. They should be priority for expanding the programme.

Map of doubly disadvantaged neighbourhoods in England (economically deprived with weaker social infrastructure of community groups, spaces and activities). Red dots mark neighbourhoods in the most deprived 10% that have not received phase 1 or 2 Pride in Place funding. They are disproportionately in the north of England.

Greater economic security for families is a key aim of the Government, and my new @jrf-uk.bsky.social paper sets out the role of social infrastructure - community spaces, active community groups and everyday connections - in helping deliver this goal. www.jrf.org.uk/neighbourhoo...

Why social infrastructure matters for economic security

Economic security isn’t just about money, local connections and community support matter too. Pride in Place is a key intervention, but new analysis identifies two key challenges.

jrf.org.uk

Govt’s Pride in Place targets areas with economic deprivation and weaker social infrastructure. Yet, our analysis reveals 2 challenges. We find 430 doubly disadvantaged neighbourhoods in England (home to approx 3.5 million people) are unfunded, incl many ranked as facing the greatest challenges 1/3

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Men and women living in the most deprived areas of England and Wales are far more likely to die from causes that are preventable or treatable than those in the least deprived communities.

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A new way to explore UK Poverty data ⬇️ Poverty is deepening. Developing solutions to tackle this problem starts with clear, accessible evidence. To make our data more accessible we’ve published all charts, maps and tables from our UK Poverty 2026 in a new, interactive dashboard.

The new Welsh IMD shows persistent disadvantage across Wales. While there has been some minor adjustments to the methodology, the overall picture is similar to that of the 2019 release.

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> Home purchased for £4k in 1970, now worth £4m > That's £3.945m more than if it had just increased with inflation > Her house has effectively gained £72k in value every year in today's prices > Her house earned around double what the average UK earner did each year

I bought my home for £4000 in 1970, I worry about the mansion tax

Every child, no matter their background, deserves to have a good start in life. Ethnic minority children were disproportionately impacted by the two child limit which widens ethnic disparities in child poverty rates. Scrapping this cruel policy to lift 450000 children out of poverty is a huge win!

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A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total.  This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.

🚨New deprivation data reveals continual deep regional divides across many areas in England. High levels of deprivation are concentrated in many ex-industrial northern and midlands towns and coastal areas, where manufacturing and tourism industries have been lost.

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Spoke to the BBC about the drivers of deprivation and the impact on families. There's a clear link between living in hardship & feeling socially/politically disconnected. To make meaningful progress, communities must be involved in decisions affecting their lives. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What is life really like in one of England's most deprived towns?

Hastings in East Sussex is one of the most deprived local authorities in England, data shows.

bbc.co.uk

ONS have published new private rented affordability analysis for 2024. Ratios of rents to incomes dipped in 2022/23 as incomes climbed faster than rents. Rents have been catching up so affordability has worsened again and seems likely it will continue to worsen through 2025...

Figure 1: Private rents have been consistently above 30% in England, below 30% in Northern Ireland, and usually below 30% in Wales

The latest figures released yesterday on premature mortality in England and Wales reveal another stark and persistent inequality: From March 2021 to December 2023, people living in the most deprived areas were 64% more likely to die prematurely than those in the least deprived places.

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1 in 6 children in Wales has been in poverty in 3 out of the last 4 years. 🚨 Urgent, radical action from the Welsh and UK governments is needed to avoid lasting consequences. Our report out today with the Bevan Foundation lays bare the state of poverty in Wales in 2025. 1/6

Today’s poverty statistics show that the Scottish Government has failed to meet the interim child poverty reduction targets. 240,000 children is Scotland remain in poverty (AHC). To have met the targets a further 40,000 children would need to have been lifted out of poverty.

Line chart showing the trend in relative child poverty (AHC) and the child poverty reduction targets. It shows one-year estimates with large confidence intervals. The rate in 2023/24 is 22% and the interim target (also 2023/24) is 18%. In 2030/31 the final target is 10%.

All ethnic minority groups in the UK continue to face persistent poverty with no signs of improvement from last year. 📊 New DWP figures show people in Bangladeshi households are still 3x more likely to be in poverty compared to white households, and Pakistani households are 2.5x more likely.

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New poverty rate figures show the West Midlands, London and the North West had the highest child poverty rates with over a third of children in poverty. In Scotland (where things are being done differently) the child poverty rate is joint lowest for the UK at 23%.

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Around 4.5 million children are living in relative poverty after housing costs. 200,000 more since before the pandemic. These are record numbers of children living in poverty. Latest DWP figures on Households Below Average Income has found 🔽 1/3