New at Can We Still Govern? Yes, government can use smart innovations to reduce burdens. Rebecca Johnson and Tyler Simko describe a data-matching innovation that led to a 15 percentage point ⬆️ in pandemic emergency rental assistance access. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-automa...

How automation reduced administrative burdens and increased access to Emergency Rental Assistance

New research shows how data can increase access and program integrity

donmoynihan.substack.com

New short working paper with @mpreece.bsky.social + Adam Rauh: "Local community opposition to data centers is clear and growing." We use LocalView to study data center discussions in thousands of local government meetings across the US. First, we show attention is surging: osf.io/preprints/so...

New short working paper with @mpreece.bsky.social + Adam Rauh: "Local community opposition to data centers is clear and growing." We use LocalView to study data center discussions in thousands of local government meetings across the US. First, we show attention is surging: osf.io/preprints/so...

Redistricting Reforms Reduce Gerrymandering by Constraining Partisan Actors is now forthcoming in the APSR! We use a game theoretic treatment and continuous DiD(iD) to show when redistricting reforms work with @corymccartan.com, @simko.bsky.social, Emma Ebowe, Michael Zhao, and Kosuke Imai

Looking for a postdoc in American politics? Come work with us in Ann Arbor! No obligations other than research. Preference for institutions-focused work, but we’re open to a wide range of substantive interests (including local politics!). Happy to answer any questions: apply.interfolio.com/178829

Looking for a postdoc in American politics? Come work with us in Ann Arbor! No obligations other than research. Preference for institutions-focused work, but we’re open to a wide range of substantive interests (including local politics!). Happy to answer any questions: apply.interfolio.com/178829

The big Democratic wins of the 2025 elections will shift political dynamics and strategies in the coming year. For key takeaways, read our Q&A with UM political scientist Tyler Simko @simko.bsky.social, elections analyst for CBS. cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3516

Unexpected Margins: Analysis of the 2025 Elections

Expert Q&A with takeaways and predictions drawn from the 2025 elections with CBS elections analyst and University of Michigan political scientist Tyler Simko

cpsblog.isr.umich.edu

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins. Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

Kabir K.@kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 9mo ago

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

NYC map shaded by vote margin! We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/ H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood

CBS News estimates of how different parts of the city voted

datawrapper.dwcdn.net

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/ Hover over map to see our estimates... #CBSDataDesk🍎

2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood

datawrapper.dwcdn.net

Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers

Supported by both the Fordham Institute and @wallacefoundation.bsky.social, Michael Hartney and I explored the extent to which U.S. school board members are politically and demographically representative of the communities they serve. Here's a summary of our main findings: 1/12

Michael Petrilli@michaelpetrilli.bsky.social · 10mo ago

New from Fordham, the Wallace Foundation, @dmhouston.bsky.social & Michael Hartney: Who’s on Board? School Boards and Political Representation in an Age of Conflict fordhaminstitute.org/national/res...

👀 Local governments often take "symbolic" stances on issues where they hold no authority or jurisdiction. @simko.bsky.social and Taran Samarth examine the dynamics and purpose of "symbolic representation" by studying the response of US local governments to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. #APSA2025

Trump’s proposed rush job Census isn’t just immoral and regressive—it will harm communities across the country and compromise data quality: @chriskenny.bsky.social and I in @thehill.com today: thehill.com/opinion/camp...

Trump’s proposed snap Census won’t get him the seats he wants

A new Census would likely diminish political representation for Republican areas.

thehill.com

Do you use tract boundaries in your research? Jake Brown, @simko.bsky.social, and I have a new working paper (osf.io/preprints/so...): Any Way You Slice It: Racial Segregation Statistics are Robust to Aggregation Bias We show that tract-level segregation is robust to MAUP using simulation methods.

"shifts in political geography and gerrymandering reduced the number of highly competitive districts by over 25% [from 2010 to 2020], with geographic polarization driving most of the decline."

Cory McCartan@corymccartan.com · 12mo ago

Timely WP from our ALARM project team: we generated over 200k simulated maps for the 2010 cycle, to compare against our existing 2020 simulations. This lets us disentangle changes in gerrymandering from changes in political geography! alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...

In our polarized political environment, I’m excited to share my new ASR publication: “Competence over Partisanship: Party Affiliation Does Not Affect the Selection of School District Superintendents”. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Great article, and a good example of the continuing value of public, open source research tools (we published these simulations in 2022). When new claims and arguments arise, anyone can use existing resources to examine them.

Cory McCartan@corymccartan.com · 12mo ago

NYT used our ALARM project redistricting simulations to talk about geographic bias against the parties and what counts as "fair" in redistricting! www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

You may have noticed things are happening fast in the world of redistricting… I along with @maxwellpalmer.com and @simko.bsky.social wrote an article last week (though published today) that analyzes the changes to the congressional district map in Texas, and particularly San Antonio.

Republicans are seeking to create a durable gerrymander in Texas

Short-term tactical gains in Texas could ultimately yield a race to the bottom.

expressnews.com

Texas was already arguably the biggest Republican gerrymander in the nation, according to this PNAS paper by @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

MMOC@solarfish.bsky.social · last yr.

The first redistricting proposals for TX are in. This is what cracking and packing looks like. This is an intensive gerrymander. See how the districts spiral in fingers into the cities. Lizzie Fletcher's district TX7 becomes almost entirely rural.

Is government suspicion based on real lived experiences and historic harm? #ISRNextGeneration scholar Franshelly Martinez-Ortiz writes on the case of Michigan, where events like the Flint Water Crisis give rise to lasting mistrust. @maraceci.bsky.social #MPSA2025 ➡️ cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3434

In Michigan, conspiracy thinking can be rooted in real historic harm

Conspiracy thinking may result from paranoia or misinformation -- but it's often rooted actual harms and well-earned mistrust in government.

cpsblog.isr.umich.edu

Urban–rural cleavages are seen as a defining political divide. But does this polarization hold worldwide? My new working paper tests this question using an original dataset of granular, geocoded election returns from 106 countries (polling station-level in 70). (1/8)