Sam Lair
@slair.bsky.social
Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
@duitsmanms.bsky.social and I have a short piece @fpri.bsky.social on Belarus' SU-25s & the Russian nuclear exercises in May. Turns out, there wasn't much nuclear about the Frogfoot's part in the drill! We geolocated the exercise and wrote about what it means: www.fpri.org/article/2026...
Lida Shuffle: Su-25 “Nuclear” Exercises in Belarus - Foreign Policy Research Institute
At the end of May, Russia and Belarus conducted a set of what they claimed were nuclear exercises. Some nine or so systems were tested, including the Su-25
fpri.org
Also worth pointing out that ATACMS and PrSM are some of the best munitions available for TEL plinking - short flight time and low pilot risk As those SRBM supplies deplete, suppressing the Iranian missile force again like at the start of the war will become more difficult
Reuters@reuters.com · yesterday🔊 The US has used most of its precision missiles in Iran. 'The US might have to turn to methods of fighting the war ... which could bring American lives closer to the front line. Listen now on the Reuters World News podcast reut.rs/4fN6IW2
@slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social, John Ford & Seth Hosford will be full-time Fellows @fpri.bsky.social. The team is going to be doing the same awesome work: Using satellites, software, and open sources to shed light on the spread of nuclear weapons and missiles around the world
We have big news at @fpri.bsky.social! For almost a year now @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been collaborating on a series of projects about deterrence, space, and missile defense. Last week, we made it official. Jeffrey's all-star team is starting full time at FPRI.
Such a blast a write this with Aaron and to feature in Aviation Week!! Really thrilled!
Aaron Stein@aaronstein1.bsky.social · 2w agomy @fpri.bsky.social colleague @slair.bsky.social and I wrote about how Golden Dome may hasten the burgeoning nuclear arms race in space for @aviationweek.bsky.social aviationweek.com/space/satell...
A few thoughts on China's SLBM test. This isn't as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Nuclear weapons states have missiles and they test them.
Exclusive: Rush for targets led US commanders to ignore warnings before deadly Iran school strike, sources say https://cnn.it/4pcGpwP
After more than fifteen years, I've resigned from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 280 characters isn't enough to name all the colleagues who, against all better judgment, became friends. You know who you are — whether you should admit it is a separate question.
A chance to work with some of the most lovely folks around!
Eliana Johns@elianajjohns.bsky.social · 2mo agoEXCITING NEWS. WE’RE HIRING! The Nuclear Information Project at FAS is hiring for a full-time, early career position to support both research and operations. Please share widely and apply by June 28! @scientistsorg.bsky.social fas.org/career/resea...
We need to go through the images carefully, but Kim Jong Un seems to have visited the new uranium enrichment facility identified by the @iaeaorg.bsky.social last year and located by @slair.bsky.social and yours truly at: 39.786° N, 125.759° E.
Going to take this opportunity to repost this piece @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I wrote nearly a year ago on the new enrichment plant at Yongbyon www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
A New Enrichment Plant At Yongbyon?
By Jeffrey Lewis and Sam Lair On Monday, June 9, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported to the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna that “the Agency is [...]
armscontrolwonk.com
I wrote something for @fpri.bsky.social on CENTCOM's request for Dark Eagle. While not super useful in that theater, the flexibility its range offers means such a deployment could pose issues for Moscow. Read more here: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
Dark Eagle in the Desert | Considerations for Deploying LRHW to CENTCOM
At the end of April, Gerry Doyle at Bloomberg reported that CENTCOM had requested the deployment of Dark Eagle to the Middle East.
open.substack.com
My @fpri.bsky.social @slair.bsky.social analyzed Dark Eagle's performance and how even a deployment in the CENTCOM AOR can hold Moscow at risk, giving the US flexibility the INF never allowed for: behindthefront.substack.com/p/dark-eagle...
Dark Eagle in the Desert | Considerations for Deploying LRHW to CENTCOM
At the end of April, Gerry Doyle at Bloomberg reported that CENTCOM had requested the deployment of Dark Eagle to the Middle East.
behindthefront.substack.com
This is a great piece from Ankit. Many similarities to the Nixon admin's stated justifications for shifting to Safeguard: point defense is more stabilizing than area defense, easier targets to defend, etc. One thing worth more investigation is whether this generates bargaining leverage, a la SALT
Ankit Panda@nktpnd.bsky.social · 3mo agoNew from me: a short preview for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social of a broader rethink of US homeland missile defense policy that I expect to publish on in longer form later this year: think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Tapping the sign in light of scud-hunting discourse
Sam Lair@slair.bsky.social · 4mo agoI really doubt we will be able to park MQ-9s over China to plink TELs during a war... Two things can be true at once! The TEL hunting campaign in OEF can be the most successful so far in history, which it is imo, and not super applicable to high-level fights in other contexts!
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social has a great post on her substack folks should read! (I am biased because it cites the fabulous work Carl Parkin did last summer) I think I shared some of Nicole's biases on how quickly Iran could regenerate launchers and for how long open.substack.com/pub/axesanda...
Revisiting Iran's Missile and Drone Campaign
An early reflection on my writing and thinking during the war
open.substack.com
Why decapitation complicates war termination: "We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive" www.axios.com/newsletters/...
Axios AM
axios.com
I really doubt we will be able to park MQ-9s over China to plink TELs during a war... Two things can be true at once! The TEL hunting campaign in OEF can be the most successful so far in history, which it is imo, and not super applicable to high-level fights in other contexts!
Foreign Affairs@foreignaffairs.com · 4mo ago“The United States may be able to carry out far more effective operations against China than analysts once thought—and this potential could give China good reason to refrain from military aggression for some time,” writes Carter Malkasian.
I told @trbrtc.bsky.social & @johnismay.bsky.social the missile involved in the strike that killed 21 civilians, including at least 5 children, appears to be ~15 feet long--closer to a PrSM than an Iranian cruise missile. This is how I made that estimate. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
It Really Looks Like A PrSM
The New York Times has a second story by Christiaan Triebert, John Ismay, Alexander Cardia, Leanne Abraham and Azmat Khanout that concludes … well, [...]
armscontrolwonk.com
Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and
warontherocks.com
The *actual* reason Truman reserved this power for himself, and refused to allow it to be delegated or shared by the military, is because he believed that this was the only way to *prevent* nuclear weapons from being used again. Full stop.
Time for a real-time case study in how predelegation of launch authority creates problems for establishing and maintaining cease-fires
Me and my colleague @slair.bsky.social looked at the drone counter-IAD campaign in Iran for @fpri.bsky.social :: The UAV-Enabled Anti-Air Defense Campaign in the Third Gulf War open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
The UAV-Enabled Anti-Air Defense Campaign in the Third Gulf War
Should SAMs Fear the Reaper?
open.substack.com
@dexeve.bsky.social & I have a new piece out in Survival. In 2024, South Korea secretly deployed more than 300 KTSSM missiles at soft, fixed sites--suggesting that, in a crisis, Seoul may strike first & giving Pyongyang 300 reasons to beat them to it. doi.org/10.1080/0039...
South Korea’s Ominous Missile Deployments
By placing more than 300 fixed, short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles on permanent alert at several above-ground sites close to the Demilitarised Zone, South Korean Strategic Command ha...
doi.org
Looks like one of my slides made it into this Space Force brief on how to annotate imagery! Glad to see they liked it as much as I did Also seems like the slides just endorse careful language for photo interpretation fwiw. Gotta respect analytic tradecraft
Ken Klippenstein@kenklippenstein.bsky.social · 4mo ago🚨 US military document leaked to shows how the Pentagon is working with private companies to manipulate the information you see about the Iran war www.kenklippenstein.com/p/leaked-doc...