Seo-young Silvia Kim

@sysilviakim.bsky.social

Assistant Professor, Seoul National University. Caltech PhD, formerly at American University and Sogang. Election (admin)/money in politics/css + methods. https://sysilviakim.com/

2026 May SWERP event: Yong Kyun Kim (Seoul National University) will present on territorial rewards and state restructuring in Vietnam’s 2025 provincial mergers. May 8, 10am KST (May 7, 9pm ET). Hope to see you there!

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New SWERP event alert! Three SNU master’s students will present their research in a lightning-round format. Join us Apr 3 10 AM KST (= April 2, 9 PM EST) to see Seoul National’s crème de la crème in action. Personally looking forward to this one.

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1. Downgraded from Claude Max to Pro. My mental health has significantly improved. Less feeling like I'm being chased all the time (was whipping myself for higher productivity) 2. Claude>>Codex for me so far 3. Still haven't figured out how best to raise the next academic generation in this era

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Just published at PNAS (@pnas.org): “Electing amateur politicians reduces cross-party collaboration” We show that districts electing first-time members of the U.S. House experience substantial declines in bipartisan representation in the subsequent Congress. 🧵1/4

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"President Donald Trump and his top aides are using the word 'insurrection' more frequently to describe anti-ICE protests in places like Portland," writes Zachary B. Wolf. https://cnn.it/4pWYmzr

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U.S. political scientists, are any of your depts *not* admitting new PhD students this year (esp. for international applicants)? I'm gathering info to help students know where to reconsider applying. Applications are not cheap and they're despairing. Appreciate any details.

SWERP is back for fall 2025! Under what international contexts are citizens more likely to support peace with a foreign adversary? Jungmin Han will present about how third-party interactions shape public opinion on rapprochement. Sep 26, 2025, 10am KST (= Sep 25 9pm ET)

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🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022). tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️

The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections

Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c

papers.ssrn.com