7.3% chance of winning, making the grand slam by Clemens a +0.927 WPA, the highest possible gain for a single pitch/swing
Sarah Langs@slangsonsports.bsky.social · 6d agoWHEEEEEEE!
Tangotiger
@tangotiger.com
MLBAM Senior Data Architect Website http://www.tangotiger.com Co-author of The Book, with limited free access from - Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger - Google Books: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger2
Sarah Langs@slangsonsports.bsky.social · 6d agoAgreed! You can keep them separate, but the default should merge them. And the user can split them if they want
Suss-- 🥌@suss2hyphens.bsky.social · 6d agonestled in this piece is my impassioned case to just mash the postseason stats into a person's career stats. stop separating them. this is ridiculous
New post: I wanted to figure out the best NHL team in the salary-cap era to not get a single Hart Trophy vote. Then I found something kind of weird... www.nytimes.com/athletic/747...
What’s the best NHL team in the salary-cap era to not get a single Hart Trophy vote? (Gift Article)
We found something weird while trying to find the best team in the cap era that was completely shut out of the Hart love.
nytimes.com
Nice graphic, easy to understand and remember
Will Harris@sandwichpick.bsky.social · 3mo agoJust pulled this for 2026 data through yesterday, but you can see bat speed is higher on balls in play for pitches low in the strike zone, but the trade off here is that low pitches are also harder to launch in the air
BB v SO Park Factors, 2025-26 There was plenty of discussion on T-Mobile Park being really tough on batter, whether it was batter's eye or sun or whatnot Sutter is by far the friendliest to batters for BB+SO. Looking forward to #AspiringSaberist baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...
Good breakdown by Matt, looking at the tools aspect I thought this was interesting, that Nico's low BA in May can be explained, at least in part, that the opposing fielders did well. This had an impact of 54 points on his May BA
Matt Trueblood@matrueblood.bsky.social · 2w agoNico Hoerner was in a deep slump for a long time. This weekend, I talked to Hoerner, John Mallee and Craig Counsell about him breaking out of that funk—only to find that none of them even felt like he was really in one, exactly. northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...
League Average wOBA on batted balls is .380: need launch speed of 97+ to be above average Including BB+SO, league wOBA is .320: happens at 95+. Thats why hard hit is 95+ Under 90 mph averages .210, and is fairly flat: 40 = 60 = 80 = 90. Thats why we dont average launch speed
If you want to know what is FB launch angle and Line Drive launch angle, focus on HR rates, hit rates Ten years ago in 2016, I settled on 28 degrees +/- 8 for FB and 12 +/- 8 for LD Below is 2025 data, and it still holds well cc: @dialofdestiny.bsky.social baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_hit...
Ted did it while missing his years 25-27 seasons.
Tangotiger@tangotiger.com · 3w agoI've long considered Juan Soto as the most genius batter of our generation. We may need to extend this to one of the most genius batters in history of baseball What I like about stat from Sarah is it highlights players of past: We know about Ted, but maybe we dont appreciate Mick and Foxx enough?
I've long considered Juan Soto as the most genius batter of our generation. We may need to extend this to one of the most genius batters in history of baseball What I like about stat from Sarah is it highlights players of past: We know about Ted, but maybe we dont appreciate Mick and Foxx enough?
Sarah Langs@slangsonsports.bsky.social · 3w agoMost games reaching base safely 4+ times before turning 28, since at least 1900: Mickey Mantle: 121 Jimmie Foxx: 112 Juan Soto: 102 Ted Williams: 102
Top 5 defensive OF per Statcast 2025: Rafaela, PCA, Young, Scott, Pages 2026: PCA, Rafaela, Young, Pages, T. Peters That's pretty cool. Basically the same guys, and Scott is off because his bat got him demoted.
If only playoffs counted for something other than exhibition...
Mike Petriello@mikepetriello.bsky.social · 3w agoNot 100% convinced he gets there
Well @noelrappin.com has decided to revive Win Shares, with terrific title: "The Triumphant Return of a Thing Nobody Will Care About" Those who have followed me from 25 years ago know all the problems I have enumerated with Win Shares, and Ive shared those with Bill noelrappin.com/2026/06/the-...
The Triumphant Return of a Thing Nobody Will Care About
In 2002, Bill James created Win Shares, a baseball super-statistic. In 2026, I, perhaps, unwisely, decided to calculate it myself.
noelrappin.com
Im more confused by sort order. My guess: he assigned student numbers based on initial final exam, then updated their final scores S22 is a good example: probably had score of 52, 53, or 54, then got bumped up to 55 S25 almost certainly got 51.5 corrected to 52 Sec sort is ASC(!) of midterm score
Kieran Healy@kjhealy.co · 4w agolol
The irony that the university response would likely be flagged by the AI detector...
Kieran Healy@kjhealy.co · 4w agolol
New favorite STEM major turned professional baseball player: Alan Roden has a BS in physics en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Ro...
Alan Roden - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Using the standard of measuring speed out-of-hand (or very close to it for pre-2017) and limiting to March-June data, the current 4-seam + 2-seam speeds are: 2026: 94.5 2021: 93.5 2015: 92.5 2009: 91.5 Basically, every 5-6 years, we gain 1 mph on average baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
All pitches 95+ in 2026 x-axis is pitch speed at release y-axis is speed at plate crossing Red dots are pitches at Coors (less air resistance, means they maintain speed more, dropping only 7%, compared to 8.6% for all pitches) A legit 95 ball at plate, is 103-104 at release
Monthly HR Rates by Temperature (since 2016) The rule of thumb: every 10F adds 10% HR rate The data below can be grouped easily enough: 77.0 - 66.4 = 10.6 F 4.8% / 4.4% = +9% So, you can temperature-adjust easily enough
Blog Post: Do players think strategically when issuing an ABS Challenge? tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
Reminds me of Federer late in his career once mentioning he won Wimbledon 7 times, when it actual fact it was 8 That's how good these guys are that they actual forget entire titles won, or so many goals scored (17), they can't remember them all
Bryan Fischer@bryandfischer.bsky.social · last mo.Messi, asked which of his World Cup goals was his favorite: “I don’t know. I don’t remember. I’m tired.”
The Cd data you see on Savant uses Alan's methodology, and it matches to what Alan is showing below: baseballsavant.mlb.com/drag-dashboard
Alan Nathan@pobguy.bsky.social · 2mo agoHere's what I have found. Top plot is drag Cd, bottom plot is lift Cl. Cd shows steady decrease by nearly 10% since start of season. Cl does not. So it's not simply an air density effect, which should affect both quantities. Next step would be to see whether HR rates track with Cd. Later.
Tango: Only catchers and the team's best batters should challenge Internet: Nah, you can't make that rule Pro players/managers: Only catchers and the team's best batters should challenge Internet: Intriguing!
Matt Martell@mattmartell.fangraphs.com · 2mo agoWhat factors do players consider when deciding to challenge a pitch? How are managers and front offices shaping their team's ABS strategy? Over the first 12 weeks of the season, I spoke with 40 people from 9 different teams to understand how they are approaching ABS. My story for @fangraphs.com:
Tango: Pitchers should never challenge ever Internet: Sometimes it's ok Pro players/managers: Pitchers should never challenge ever Internet: Intriguing!
Matt Martell@mattmartell.fangraphs.com · 2mo agoWhat factors do players consider when deciding to challenge a pitch? How are managers and front offices shaping their team's ABS strategy? Over the first 12 weeks of the season, I spoke with 40 people from 9 different teams to understand how they are approaching ABS. My story for @fangraphs.com:
One of the interesting playoff setups the NHL used to have: The two division leaders would face each other in the first round, and THEN they have a bye in the 2nd round In the meantime, winner of Bolts/Habs would face winner of Penguins/Flyers What is interesting is that... 1/2
