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@thezacc18.bsky.social

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Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last yr.

Useful illustration voters aren’t Lego bricks and a Tory/Reform merger is far from a silver bullet with opposition in both camps. Support for a merger likely even lower for voters Tories lost to Labour/Lib Dems (which is ~same no as they lost to reform) and they need to win back

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · last yr.

Amid calls from some Tories to 'unite the right', Conservative and Reform UK voters are split on a merger of the two parties By 2024 vote Conservative: 43% support vs 39% oppose Reform UK: 39% vs 49% By current vote Conservative: 38% vs 45% Reform UK: 45% vs 43% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Will Jennings📉🗳️@drjennings.bsky.social · last yr.

The idea that the government simply has to deliver on its missions to win back public trust (and electoral support) is fanciful. The depth of disillusionment with British politics and government is very clear from focus groups like these...

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last yr.

Got back last night from focus groups this weekend in Beverley, Hull,Scunthorpe & Peterborough and without doubt the disillusionment was the worst I’ve heard, in every group it was anger; despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn’t feel sustainable.

Tarik Abou-Chadi@tabouchadi.bsky.social · last yr.

Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform? How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over? Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

Jonn Elledge@jonnelledge.bsky.social · last yr.

Fascinating subplot here - the collapse of the NDP polling. Gonna go out on a limb and guess that in CA, as in the UK, there are a lot of voters who switch between "I hate the main left-wing party and will vote for an alternative" and "My overriding priority is to stop the right"

Rudolf van der Berg@internetthought.bsky.social · last yr.

Here is the real polling chart. I am not too familiar with Canadian politics, but what exactly happened in Canada on January 6th 2025, that it so dramatically changed the course for Libs? ;-)

Dylan Difford@dylandifford.bsky.social · last yr.

One thing that intrigues me with this line of thinking is how few political strategists seem to understand that just because the contest is ostensibly x vs y, it is perfectly possible for x to lose the seat without losing many votes directly to y (and could have kept the seat by appealing to z).

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last yr.

Sunday Times says McSweeney believes there is more chance "Reform eclipses the Conservatives than the Conservatives eclipse Reform". (Neither scenario is esp likely: more likely Labour 2029 faces contests with 4 different challenger parties when defending seats) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last yr.

On the one hand it’s a low turnout by-election, on the other the size of the swing against Labour demonstrates how real the potential threat Reform are in their heartland seats, and crucially going beyond those red wall seats that fell in 2019.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · last yr.

Longdendale (Tameside) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 46.6% (New) 🌹 LAB: 25.0% (-32.2) 🌳 CON: 12.4% (-10.6) 🌍 GRN: 12.1% (-4.7) 🙋 IND: 3.9% (New) Reform GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2024.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com · last yr.

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

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Dan Sohege@danielsohege.bsky.social · last yr.

Here's the thing. Quite a lot of commentators are, understandably, saying this case might embolden far right. Issue is if Le-Pen won it definitely would embolden them. It isn't a verdict which can be ignored, but it can be discussed in a way which highlights inconsistencies in far right messaging 1/

Emile Chabal@emile-chabal.bsky.social · last yr.

Some observations about the Marine Le Pen verdict: 1) WOW. They really went for it: prison term (w/electronic tag) and 5 years of ineligibility. That's almost exactly what the prosecutors asked for, so she's seriously guilty. 2) Will this halt the progress of the far-right in France? No. But... 1/

Ben Coates@bencoates1.bsky.social · last yr.

Wilders’ polling lead continues to disappear; the (strongly pro-Zelensky) VVD and Timmermans’ Labour alliance are both snapping at his heels. While the BBB and NSC are both flirting with obsolescence - current polls have them *combined* winning only the same number of seats as the window-licking FvD

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Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · last yr.

Part of being politically effective is you have to start by having an accurate view of a) where the voters are and b) what your political opponent is actually like. Not sure if the underlying problem with Badenoch's positioning on Net Zero is she is missing a), b) or both, but certainly one of them.

Jack Kessler@jackkessler.bsky.social · last yr.

Not sure what was wrong with following the voters here. Be broadly pro-net zero, but opposed to anything that even vaguely impinges on our way of life, eg eating less meat or flying less often.