Some interesting context: a summer of extreme weather (or, cultural discussion around it) has spiked the issue salience of climate for voters. Is back as a top 5 issue, ahead of housing, education, crime. But elite polarisation means politicians largely still too scared to talk about it for now.

Sofie Jenkinson@sofiejenkinson.bsky.social · yesterday

Today I've written for @labourlist.bsky.social on why working class communities deserve to see a bold plan from Labour on climate. Quite simply we all deserve to be safe and be protected. And there's quite a clear political case for the government too. labourlist.org/2026/08/work...

Very useful thread here on some of the recent trends

Convergent Opinion@convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 2d ago

New MRP from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social: Labour ahead under Burnham, but still short of a majority Seats (change vs June): 🌹 245 (+138) ➡️ 174 (−112) 🌳 99 (+19) 🔶 67 (−17) 🎗️ 25 (−8) 🐉 8 (−2) 🌍 7 (−13) Labour leads but is 81 seats short of a majority 25–30 July, n=10,919

Updated numbers here: Burnham bounce still basically entirely coming from clawing back voters Labour had lost to Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. In addition, Burnham now winning 10% of Green 2024 voters - double that from June.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · last wk.

Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).

A silver lining for Greens in all this: they can now focus resources properly for next general election. There’s a dozen or so Labour-held seats where Greens have a base & Lab can’t plausibly play the “it’s us or Reform” card. Talk of replacing Lab next time was always hubristic, not to say risky

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 5d ago

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Result: 🌹 Craig | LAB: 47.2% ➡️ Astley | RFM: 21.0% 🌍 Coggins | GRN: 12.2% ◼️ West | RES: 8.7% 🌳 Eckersley | CON: 7.7% 🔶 Kilpatrick | LDM: 2.2% 🙋 Farmer | Ind: 0.6% 2nd Round: 🌹 Craig | LAB: 66.3% ➡️ Astley | RFM: 33.7% Labour HOLD.

Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).

Was intrigued by this so went to have a look at how Labour voters values/priorities differ by whether they live in more metropolitan or provincial constituencies. The answer is: not much ! Geography matters at the margin, but a Lab voter in Makerfield is not that different to one in Hastings.

Tyron@tyron.bsky.social · 3w ago

Genuinely a bit offensive as a summary

@mcgregor.bsky.social’s been @ippr.org trustee years &I can confidently say he’s one of the wisest, smartest, kindest. He talks human not bullshit. Really impressive experience +perspective at intersection of politics/policy/campaigns/digital. And an incredibly open, generous operator. Wicked hire ❤️

Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · 3w ago

I've been told that Matthew McGregor, currently chief executive of campaign group 38 Degrees, will go into Downing St as Burnham's director of political strategy www.ft.com/content/cba0...

Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way...

Arieh Kovler@ariehkovler.com · 3w ago

It's kind of weird how watering down Net Zero has become a political litmus test in Labour. Net Zero was in the last TORY manifesto!

Couple of stats to highlight this: ⁠- In vote share terms, Clacton is about twice as right wing as UK average. Reform + Con vote was 74% in 2024 vs 38% UK. - In @persuasionuk.bsky.social opinion maps, Clacton is about 11ppts more right-leaning on any given issue: persuasionuk.org/opinion-maps...

UK-EU relationship

Exploring people's attitudes to trade-offs involved in the future UK-EU relationship

persuasionuk.org

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 4w ago

Feel like I’m missing a step in the narrative here. Why is winning a by-election in one of the most right wing constituencies in the country a refutation of allegations against your fitness to be Prime Minister?

Feel like I’m missing a step in the narrative here. Why is winning a by-election in one of the most right wing constituencies in the country a refutation of allegations against your fitness to be Prime Minister?

Just one normal day of British politics please. Can't we just turn the machine off for a month and come back after everyone has had a nice break?

What might a ‘cost of living populism’ look like & how would it do electorally for Labour/Burnham? Some new research via @persuasionuk.bsky.social TL;DR such a platform boosts Lab’s vote share by 15ppt (!) to 34% in our MRP experiment. This & anti-Reform squeeze is prob their best hope 🧵

I’ll be interested to see if “Burnham doesn’t care about the South” cuts through with Labour voters in the swathes of Blue Wall type seats they won in 2024. On the one hand, it’s plausible: voters are increasingly zero sum and alert to ‘someone else’ less deserving getting help ahead of them.

UK's outgoing PM Keir Starmer tells parliament that climate change is "one of the most significant challenges of our time" and says it is a "shame" that the Conservatives have broken the cross-party consensus "in order to chase Reform votes"

Nice of this cafe in Sarajevo to pay tribute to our fallen leader this week

They’re calling it the quote on British politics that ended the need for all other quotes

What happened in Makerfield? Some new constituency polling between @persuasionuk.bsky.social & Convergent (most accurate pollster in the race!), covering among other things: - Burnham assembling a coalition Lab needs nationally - 'Get Starmer out' + 'public ownership' at the centre of it. 🧵👇

Really consistent pattern now: Reform are doing well at local elections but the minute the stakes are higher (Caerphilly, Gorton, Senedd, even Runcorn) people are coming out and uniting behind whoever is best placed to stop them. This was target seat number 29 for them. It’s a terrible result

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Thats a remarkable margin for Burnham - and another by election where Reform have massively underperformed both national and constituency polling

Burnham’s coalition in Makerfield looking a lot like the one Labour needs to win nationally: uniting the progressive vote (note Greens & Lib Dems, who didn’t fight here, whittled down to nothing) then pulling over some soft Tories and Reform voters on top. Proof of concept, in that sense.

Well done to all pollsters who polled in Makerfield - incredibly hard to do and all got the winner right. And especially well done to Convergent Opinion - a new pollster led by @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social - who I think came the closest! Survation a close second. 💥

Thats a remarkable margin for Burnham - and another by election where Reform have massively underperformed both national and constituency polling

Really pleased that @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on the strengths and weaknesses of the Reform brand features in @samfr.bsky.social's substack today.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New post out: "How to beat Reform" Using exclusive polling I look at what attack lines work best on Reform, which of their voters are most likely to defect, and the potential for tactical voting. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

New post out: "How to beat Reform" Using exclusive polling I look at what attack lines work best on Reform, which of their voters are most likely to defect, and the potential for tactical voting. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

How to beat Reform

Including exclusive polling on the most effective attack lines

open.substack.com

NEW from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social Labour 12pts ahead in Makerfield, with Kenyon's sexist comments actively costing Reform votes Lab: 49% Ref: 37% Res: 5% Grn: 5% Other 5% 525 adults, 2-12 June 2026

Small irritation but by this logic, the Greens ‘handed’ Reform victory in Runcorn. Or a split left has handed the Conservatives basically every election victory in forty years. Split blocs only matter when it’s on the right apparently 😃

Not often I side with Treasury but the spending demands of the Department of Defence must be some of the least scrutinised in Westminster? Or am I wrong?

My colleague @hannahalothman.bsky.social is in Belfast tonight. This is what she’s seen. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

This has made X even more unusable than ever but frankly it's what those of us who were too weak to quit it deserve; to be confronted with our life choices, left to wallow in a vast slop emporium of our own making. Bring on more of it, i say

Our Earth Affairs@ourearthaffairs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Twitter/X is being flooded with deepfake ads of Nigel Farage physically attacking Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England.

Dodgy graphic from a dodgy org but vaguely useful lesson in polling. ‘Stay Out’ includes ppl who want a closer relationship. This doesnt contradict polls showing a Rejoin majority, it shows you the question being asked matters. Force a binary and Rejoin wins. If not, there’s a spectrum of views.

Was a pleasure to chat to @pimlicat.bsky.social and @sturdyalex.bsky.social about my report "Who Is Labour For?", which argues that Labour has treated its values-based voters transactionally, and attempted to appeal to right-leaning transactional voters on the basis of values. This hasn't worked.

Quiet Riot@quietriotpod.bsky.social · 2mo ago

💥 NEW: B-SIDE & Labour’s tricky second album 💥 We chat with @christabelcoops.bsky.social about her latest research: 🌹Who is Lab for? 📈 How can they win? ⚖️ Back to values Plus a Chalamet inspired GASI 🎭 🍏 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/q... 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/6m63...