Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?

I have mixed feelings whether the CPC should replace Poilievre. I think they have better leadership candidates to choose from, but they won't choose them, and they risk choosing someone far worse. CPC should win the next election (LPC 5th term?). I don't know if I'd want to roll the dice on this.

Final Update: 2025 Federal Election Seat Projection. What do you think will happen tonight?

A few comments on the @mark-carney.bsky.social platform released today. You can find it here: liberal.ca/cstrong/. I provided some 'sounding board' advice here and there to those working on the platform. As always: I disclose, but you can decide what weight to put on that. Thread below...

Canada Strong | Liberal Party of Canada

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New Canada seat projection model. 200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).

Blue Jackets need a regulation win tonight to stay in the playoff hunt. Could we see a goalie pull in a tie game late in the 3rd? Canadiens on verge of clinching if Jackets don't win in regulation.

I've seen plenty of these mailers in the past, but this one steps up the level of egregiousness! How many false dichotomies and other logical fallacies can you spot?

I'm curious for anyone in Elmwood-Transcona, which election signs you've seen the most of (NDP/LPC/CPC)? It's probably one of the harder to predict ridings in Canada right now. 2024 By-election saw very small LPC vote share, but it was much closer when Trudeau won a majority.

2025 Canada Election projection. Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.

So, assuming these tariffs significantly reduce global trade with US, and manufacturing capacity doesn't go anywhere, would Canadian import prices come significantly down (excluding US)? Then again, maybe US demand is inelastic, they can't produce things more cheaply, and will pay the tariffs.

I'm skeptical the federal debates will bring much opportunity to shift sentiment. 5 leaders is too many, and one of them is polling at 2%, and two others under 10%. 5 leaders = 20 (5x4) possible 1v1 confrontations. Far too little time, and any jabs will feel scripted.

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

Both @kevinmilligan.bsky.social and @trevortombe.bsky.social are worth a read regarding US tariffs. They strongly disagree on the surface, but largely share the same set of economic principles and theory.

Kevin Milligan@kevinmilligan.bsky.social · last yr.

Three short points about the US tariffs announced yesterday......

Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!

runningmagazine.ca/sections/run...

Boston Marathon to scrap qualifying times for inclusivity - Canadian Running Magazine

B.A.A. said in a statement they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to embrace a more open approach and capitalize on demand

runningmagazine.ca

I haven't found a Paul Chiang take that explains his thought process. Maybe it was a joke in bad taste? But frankly, I haven't seen this explained in any detail. Many are assuming it isn't a joke. There doesn't seem to be basis to debate the severity. Perhaps benefit of the doubt is not warranted.

I have been doing a lot of processing on federal election polling. It's hard to come to a full understanding of how the numbers have shifted so dynamically in a short period of time. A few thoughts: 🧵

Proud Dad moment. My kid got top math contest score in MB on Grade 11 Fermat. Honestly, he's miles ahead of me w.r.t. mathematical puzzles and I do math modeling as a living.

Quick start for the Jets!

With NDP/BQ down in the polls, a majority government looks increasingly likely. Just a 3% window for a minority government. LPC needs about 37-38% for a majority, and can win a majority while losing the popular vote by a significant margin.

I think QC is perhaps an underrated variable in the Canadian election. I think Carney has potentially a lot to gain in QC. With the right voice, a mainstream party can win over BQ votes. NDP has done it with the orange wave. LPC could do it too.

#CanadaElection simulations based on 338. LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority. The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.

I am not tired of Canada winning over the USA. Jonathan David puts Canada up 2-1 in Nation's League 3rd place match (60 minutes). This after USA losing to Panama in the semi-final, also subject to annexation threats.

Given current polling and a 3.3% shift from LPC to CPC, still an LPC majority even if CPC is up 2.7% in popular vote. (Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).

I'll make an outlier prediction for the federal election. LPC majority while losing the popular vote to the CPC. Based on my modeling, LPC electoral efficiency is soaring while NDP support plummets and can win a majority losing by 2%. Can you imagine how many heads will explode in this scenario?

A quick plot of Canadian border crossing data. The daily data are noisy so this is a "LOESS" smooth run through the daily data. Can really see the, ahem, trend in year-on-year data.

How risks multiply, how they relate and how they apply to you personally are all important. We once built a tool for the NHS that allowed this. This screenshot is all i can find of it now but even high level results like this are informative, i think

I'm very happy with BlueSky thus far. Need to do some work on more custom feeds/lists, but that will come. For me, I appreciate a respectful environment, but not via echo chambers. I'll express opinions. I do appreciate respectful disagreement. My ideas aren't all correct, and I'm here to learn.

The advancement of renewable energy has been a bright spot for progress on climate change. @katharinehayhoe.com gives us a few positive messages while not ignoring the elephant in the room. Worth a listen.

Climate Change and Security@climatesecurity.bsky.social · 2y ago

What happens to the fight against climate change now? Prof Katharine Hayhoe with Peter Mansbridge. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w... katharinehayhoe.com

Let's go Jets!