As I always say to my students (sometimes with this specific example) you really need to think about the size of the effect and not just the sign. “Do rich people move in response to tax increases?” is not the right question for policy. The right question is, *how much* do they move?

James Medlock@jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 13h ago

A lot of rich guys want you to think that the bar on the right is always going to be bigger than the bar on the left.

This is a ‘good strategy’ in game theory terms if you assume Trump will punish you for not rolling over and showing deference and democrats won’t. Democrats should think about altering those incentives.

Conor Sen@conorsen.bsky.social · 14h ago

25 days until the midterms:

Immigrant New Yorkers belong here. ICE does not. If you need help, call our free, confidential Immigration Legal Support Hotline at 1-800-354-0365 or dial 311 and say “Immigration Legal.” Help is here in your native language, no matter your immigration status. More info: nyc.gov/knowyourrights

another listing that went for ~$1400/sq ft. i didn't think we'd hit this level of pricing for a long while, hopefully never, but instead we're hitting it basically overnight. comps from not very long ago were $1000/sq ft, which itself seemed an insane level for anywhere not in manhattan/SF

2129 Roosevelt Ave, Berkeley, CA 94703 - 3 beds/2 baths

(bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR) Sold: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1489 sq. ft. house located at 2129 Roosevelt Ave, Berkeley, CA 94703 sold for $2,050,000 on Oct 6, 2026. MLS# 41146963. Classic Cr...

redfin.com

i find this grimly funny bc the reason we have a 5-day/40-hr workweek norm right now isn't because of technological progress, it's because of labor. an amazon eng can use a frontier model and finish their day's tasks faster. do you think Bezos gives 'em the rest of the day off, or more work?

Gianmarco Soresi@gianmarcosoresi.bsky.social · 2d ago

Man who won’t give his employees piss breaks claims many piss breaks on the horizon

it would be really funny if Trump is actually obsessed with Roko's Basilisk

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2d ago

Again he’s really losing it with the AI stuff now

I can feel it physically in my commute. Even more longer Red/Orange trains please

BART@bart.gov · 3d ago

BART just set a new ridership record! We carried 254,248 trips yesterday. That’s our highest ridership day since the pandemic, a record we have been breaking again and again this year as more people want to take transit. Thread ⬇️

incredible that the modal senate outcome in nate silver's forecast is now 53D-47R when the forecast first launched, senate control was basically a coin flip

important but very hard to tell normie voters that Susan Collins is mostly just a successful branding exercise and not some maverick independent voice. i forgot who quipped it, but some dem legislator was like "Collins is always a great vote for us... unless we actually need it"

Susan Rinkunas@susanrinkunas.com · 4d ago

Eight years ago today, Susan Collins voted to confirm this man despite one million red flags. She still says she doesn't regret it

i know like this is a conversation lots of folks are having in the space, but what actually is a software engineer's job in a world of extremely advanced AI? what is the pipeline? oldest has been spending more time with AI studio, recently wanted to build a neocities page, but she has no html xp.

redfin "your home estimate" emails normally aren't even worth the effort to even unsubscribe from, but this one caught my eye bc the delta was insane. appears to be driven by this comp. $1445/sq ft!! one-off, or the AI housing shockwave is hitting berkeley? www.redfin.com/CA/Berkeley/...

1629 Jaynes St, Berkeley, CA 94703 - 3 beds/1 bath

(bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR) Sold: 3 beds, 1 bath, 1246 sq. ft. house located at 1629 Jaynes St, Berkeley, CA 94703 sold for $1,800,000 on Sep 14, 2026. MLS# 41145349. Handsomely upg...

redfin.com

every time a story like this is published, i find it immensely hard to muster up the empathy for voters like this. like, you fucking goddamn idiots

Refuse to become a Boomer, you fucking turncoats. Things change.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social · 2w ago

One thing that’s been striking to me as an Elder Millennial is how certain narratives about the economy got frozen in amber at the end of the Bush administration, and never really got updated again. Wages are flat, millions of uninsured, sometimes you even hear about preexisting conditions!

damn son, why is this only starting at 1m?

141 Fairlawn Dr, Berkeley, CA 94708 - 2 beds/3 baths

(bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR) For Sale: 2 beds, 3 baths ∙ 1625 sq. ft. ∙ 141 Fairlawn Dr, Berkeley, CA 94708 ∙ $1,088,000 ∙ MLS# 41149153 ∙ Set into the North Berkeley hills, 141 Fair...

redfin.com

Du meine Güte! from YouGov ***likely voter*** model no less

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 2w ago

Generic Ballot Polling: 🔵Democrats: 53% 🔴Republicans: 38% YouGov / Sept 28, 2026

Something that I’m sure is motivating the execs at GOOG, MSFT, etc is that the ARR of Anthropic is already in this ballpark

Eugene Vinitsky 🍒@eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 2w ago

For example, if the LLM companies managed to snag a 50% share of Google’s search revenue, how much would that be worth? 100s of billions.

i had marked this dead in my tracker after >2 yrs of no permit activity/news since its original SB330 app in 2023. apparently it had a ZAB meeting recently. wondering if they are responding to an incoming shockwave of AI rents to Berkeley & if more "dead" projects are going to be reactivated

Zoning Adjustment Board Meeting Tomorrow For 2955 Shattuck Avenue, Berkeley - San Francisco YIMBY

The Berkeley Zoning Adjustment Board is scheduled to review plans tomorrow evening for 2955 Shattuck Avenue in South Berkeley, Alameda County...

sfyimby.com

hardcore AI critics need to spend serious time with serious AI, maybe a frontier model, instead of what appears to be just passive or second-hand engagement w/slop. not bc i think it'd change their mind, but bc then they could actually talk about it in a way that reflects what's going on right now.

the blueprint is right there: do mamdani-style message discipline, or trump-style topic change. why are you, the reporter, asking about trans kids when gas prices are spiking because of GOP's corrupt war? you do not have to accept a hostile reporter's premise on good faith.

Micah@rincewind.run · 3w ago

if you are a Dem who for whatever reason does not feel comfortable actively defending trans rights (which you should) you have two good response options: 1. ignore it! just keep running ads about the economy 2. “I am focused on your pocketbook, my opponent is focused on children’s genitals”

IME both are true, these are not in conflict. I am definitely more productive in terms of x new features developed or bugs fixed, but I am also spending more of my time on the actual design of these things than the actual coding (or worse, tedious sequences of toolchain commands)

Pavel@spavel.bsky.social · 3w ago

Software developers think "if AI automates coding, I will be able to spend less time on producing widgets, and more time on strategy and architecture." Bosses think "if AI automates coding, I can get my devs to produce 100x more widgets."

I think since my clipper card got forcibly upgraded to clipper 2, my transit pretax orders have been going to a black hole. Impossible to actually verify bc my ride/order history is both nonsensical and inconsistent between watch, app, and site.

not to get ahead of myself, but if dems sweep congress, they should exploit the general cluelessness of the median voter to hike taxes like never before. trump/the GOP will end up absorbing all the blame amongst them

GOLIKEHELLMACHINE@golikehellmachine.com · 4w ago

this isn't unfixable but the number of solutions to fix it that leave the middle class alone is zero

wow, between my watch, the app, and the website, all three of these sources disagree on the state of my clipper card (balances, history, orders). ever since i unintentionally migrated myself to clipper 2 (logged into website which forces the process), this has been a mess

The campaign for a Safe, Vibrant Berkeley is picking up steam! Vote YES on U and V this fall and visit safevibrantberkeley.com to learn more

Not a bad outcome for me given the circumstances, but 14th century Anatolia (or anywhere really) sounded bleak. 50% mortality rate for men by age 15!

Saloni@scientificdiscovery.dev · last mo.

This is interesting. You get assigned to being born at a random place and time in history, to see what a typical person's life might have been like then. Unfortunately I was born in 1403 in the valley of Mexico and died at age 4 from dysentery.

Are there any Texans who see my post? I swear to god people in TX called it frontage road when I was there, and that it was one of the reasons why my hotspots years ago were in TX, but either I’ve changed without noticing or Texans have changed since I’ve left

Wowow. I took versions of this NYTimes dialect test many times over the years, and for the most part my map was generally red, with a hotspot around TX. As expected. I took it again and my relative accent is now extremely regionalized.

Katie Mack@astrokatie.com · last mo.

Update: the dialect map quiz thing going around is a cheap knockoff of the good one, which is here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

i think much of the democratic party's low ratings reflects a palpable sense that it is institutionally incapable of standing up for itself or going on the hunt

In my latest article on Hopkins bike lanes, rather than being dismissive i tried to earnestly engage with the opposition's arguments while simultaneously reflecting on opportunities to better outreach to neighbors about how liberating electric bikes are. darrellowens.substack.com/p/reflection...

Reflection on Berkeley’s Bike Lane Drama

Hopkins bike lanes get approved for at least a third time. The drama won’t stop here.

darrellowens.substack.com

Without saying your age, what is your favorite movie that came out when you were 20 years old? I’m cheating here bc the theatrical release sucks but the directors cut that came out much later is a GOAT

Warren Wells, AICP@warrenjwells.bsky.social · last mo.

Without saying your age, what is your favorite movie that came out when you were 20 years old?