Kevin Scharfenberg

@wxkev.bsky.social

Meteorologist, but this account is my personal views only and not those of my employer. Also hiking and photography content.

Can I humbly suggest an international NWP standard for probabilistic freezing rain QPF, radial ice accumulation ratio, flat ice accumulation ratio, ice pellets QPF, and ice pellets accumulation ratio? That’d be great thanks

It should be noted that some of the highest risk areas for a significant ice storm this weekend have very high social vulnerability -- the Mississippi River Delta below Memphis and southern Appalachia. Some people are likely to be without power for an extended period of time.

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This winter storm is just a great case where the Euro is spitting out tons of freezing rain accumulation in large areas with consistent “sleet” soundings on examination. Any model experts can chime in on why?

Now seems like a good time to remind everyone the GFS model lumps in 3:1 ratio sleet into the 10:1 ratio snow amount maps, leading to extreme overestimation in the pure sleet and sleet/snow mix zone. I see some weather apps that just regurgitate GFS data are not taking this into account.

Increasing confidence there will be a major winter storm Saturday-Sunday (Jan 24-25) in parts of the southern plains, deep south, and southeast. Too early to say exactly who gets the heavy snow vs. significant icing vs. just cold rain, but looks like very cold air and heavy precip will be around.

As expected, the Red Flag Warning on Friday has been given the Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) distinction by the National Weather Service for EXTREME FIRE DANGER in/near the Boulder and Jefferson County Foothills. Do not sleep on the fire risk Friday 5AM-Midnight! #COWX

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Air quality really varies across the Denver area this evening as some smoke trapped in the foothills escaped downhill into Boulder/Louisville, while very clean air persists over downtown Denver.

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NWS is hiring! Lead Meteorologist (Job Series - 1340) openings are now on USAJobs.gov. Use your science, technical, and communication skills to lead shifts, issue critical forecasts and warnings, and help protect lives and property. Apply today!

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NWS is hiring! Are you interested in working for an agency that uses science and technology to protect lives and property? Additional mission-critical positions just posted on usajobs.gov, including Meteorologist (1340) openings. Many are great opportunities for first-time hires. More coming soon!

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