Not liking trends on the latest HRRR. Colliding outflows between the DC/Baltimore will trigger strong storms. The area upwind of northern MD (northern WV) was a prime area of training & that same signal could be prevalent as far east as the northern DelMarVa. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Well… not much to be said besides this will be yet another generational flooding event over the TX Hill Country… well over 20+ inches in spots and much more rain is expected through tomorrow, exacerbating catastrophic conditions.

Updated Day 1 High Risk had a small expansion a little farther N&W, but not too much change. More rounds of storms expected overnight tonight and into Friday AM.

Latest MPD: Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized additional 3-6" totals still possible. This will result in flash flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the Hill Country." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

The overnight WPC crew upgraded today's Day 1 ERO to a High Risk amid the ongoing catastrophic flooding. Per the Day 1 discussion, "Areas of slow-moving, heavy rainfall are expected to continue beyond 12Z, exacerbating the catastrophic impacts that unfolded across portions of the region overnight."

"The river gauge at Center Point has risen 32 feet in 4 hours and is expected to reach a crest similar to July 4, 2025 catastrophic river flood."

IEMBOT Emergency@emergency.weather.im · 3w ago

EWX issues Flash Flood Emergency [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: catastrophic] for Kendall, Kerr [TX] till Jul 16, 11:30 AM CDT Link

Portions of the TX Hill Country witnessed torrential rainfall last night that will continue to unfold through midday. Several counties and have already seen reports of numerous flooded roadways and water rescues. Monitor the latest at weather.gov, and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Two High Risks were issued in central TX on dayshift. One for the remainder of today and the other for Wednesday. Overnight flooding is likely. Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts!

I will be on the dayshift Excessive Rainfall Outlook at WPC the next few days. TX is the focus, but no shortage of flash flood potential from the Sothwest to the Southeast today. Even some pockets of Marginals in MT & New England.

A High Risk was issued this morning for the Central Gulf Coast. High Risks are not issued lightly & indicate the potential for both widespread & life-threatening flash flooding.

A dynamic setup on Wednesday with low pressure that is among the lowest observed in the 1979-2021 ERA5 database will overlap with a remarkably strong jet stream aloft, robust low-level jet, & powerful IVT to produce a combination of severe & hydro impacts in the Midwest.

WPC has initiates Key Messages for the impending heat wave over the eastern half of the U.S..

Today's heavy snow discussion marks the end of WPC's winter weather desk being staffed for the 2025-26 cold season. Just in time for the conclusion of the Central Rockies winter storm! What a season it was in the East. The desk will resume being fully staffed in late September.

We are now hiring early-career meteorologists at most offices across the country! Through an improved, streamlined hiring process, eligible candidates will be entered into pools to be continually considered for vacancies. Interested? Here’s what you need to know: (1/3)

Probably some of the best sundogs I have ever seen.

AM thoughts before 12Z guidance comes in- it is possible we never see guidance come into agreement on a uniform solution. Frankly, it is rare that happens anyway. The meteorology says a rapidly deepening mid-upper low off the coast favors areas along & east of I-95 especially...

Rare late day update to the Key Messages as new guidance continues to trickle in. Confidence is increasing in a highly impactful winter storm Sunday into Monday along the Northeast coast with disruptive snowfall as far inland as the western suburbs of I-95.

WPC has initiated Key Messages for this impending Nor'easter. While confidence in a storm system have increased, exact details on amounts & resulting impacts remain highly subjected to storm track. Continue to follow WPC's and your local WFO's forecast for the latest.

Spread in the past 5 EC-AIFS ENS runs has steadily decreased. But where there is lingering spread, it largely comes down to phasing & 500mb trough position & tilt. There is also lingering spread south of Nova Scotia, hinting at ongoing differences in wave separation & confluence.

An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.

A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.

Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.

I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.

Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"

12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.

"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?" Exhibit A--

Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!

Peter Mullinax@wxmvpete.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.

Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.

Peter Mullinax@wxmvpete.bsky.social · 6mo ago

My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...