Welcome to Day 3 of the AMS Madison Summit! Just a couple of WoFS-related talks today, but they are both at the forefront of a lot of the current work ongoing at the Lab related to the implementation and assessment of the MPAS core.

Brian Matilla@bxmatilla.bsky.social · 2d ago

The Warn-on-Forecast System will be on display this afternoon (and all week) at the @ametsoc.org Madison Summit! Here's what to look for today if you're in Madison or listening along virtually:

Day 2 of the AMS Madison Summit is upon us, so here are some more WoFS-related talks being given. It's an all-poster-session day, so all of them will be at 3:00 PM!

Brian Matilla@bxmatilla.bsky.social · 2d ago

The Warn-on-Forecast System will be on display this afternoon (and all week) at the @ametsoc.org Madison Summit! Here's what to look for today if you're in Madison or listening along virtually:

Let me reiterate. This is not like years past when AMS would extend the deadlines a day or two prior to the one that was posted. It has been echoed numerous times that this is a FIRM deadline this year, so make sure abstracts are submitted by next Tuesday, August 11th!

@amsearlycareer.bsky.social · yesterday

🚨 ⌛️ We are ONE WEEK away from the abstract submission deadline for #AMS2027! (And in case you haven't seen, this deadline is firm) Check out the call for papers and submit by Tuesday, August 11 at 5:00 PM ET - annual.ametsoc.org/2027/program...

The Warn-on-Forecast System will be on display this afternoon (and all week) at the @ametsoc.org Madison Summit! Here's what to look for today if you're in Madison or listening along virtually:

For QLCS lovers at AMS Madison, you're in luck! @drkelsbritt.bsky.social will be sharing her innovative WoFS QTor work and later, I'll be talking about the current state & limitations of QLCS mesovortex forecasting. Come join us! Britt (10:45 AM) - Madison Ballroom A Brown (1:45 PM) - Hall of Ideas

Hope everyone who is headed to the AMS Madison Summit enjoys the event! I won’t be in attendance this year but hope there is lots of productive science to enjoy. Keep an eye out for some of the WoFS-related talks I’ll be sharing from others in the group giving presentations this week!

After a week of over 100°F+ air temperatures, this is magnificent!

Very concerning situation north of Spokane Int'l Airport with a fast-growing fire that is moving to the northeast. 12:53pm observation at the airport: 84F, 23% RH, wind WSW 23mph gusting to 36. This is being called the #EuclidFire. #wawx #wawildfire

Final full descent sounding for this go around. Balloon is going back up and we'll keep doing that loop as long as Dolphin will let us.

Dr. Larissa@rissarwx.bsky.social · 4d ago

So uh, we're doing a thing and it's very fucking cool

A new paper I helped co-author with the WoFS group and folks at SPC is now live in JOM! The 2023-24 cool season really helped put WoFS on the map for ops transition, and several events prompted some critical updates to the existing guidance. Read more ➡️ nwafiles.nwas.org/file/nwafile...

I swear this has to be nothing but rage bait at this point because it really can’t be that difficult. Right? RIGHT?!

Shawn Milrad@shawnmilrad.bsky.social · 2w ago

The Dept of Energy still doesn’t understand energy storage or batteries but they seem to finally be clueing into how sunset works.

And the death ridge is arriving today in OK… over/under on how many days we break 100°F in Norman over the next 10 days? My guess is at least half of them. Blowtorch.

Packwatch Cigar

ALT: Packwatch Cigar

static.klipy.com

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two (formerly AL91) located over the northeastern Gulf of America, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2078846050677211267

Well… not much to be said besides this will be yet another generational flooding event over the TX Hill Country… well over 20+ inches in spots and much more rain is expected through tomorrow, exacerbating catastrophic conditions.

I’d say this really thick plume of smoke has wreaked havoc on today’s severe weather risk over New England. With the exception of a complex of storms over New Hampshire, much of the area of concern has been largely devoid of strong convective activity today. A bullet dodged to this point.

Dakota Smith@weatherdak.bsky.social · 3w ago

A huge plume of wildfire smoke covers parts of the Midwest and Northeast this afternoon. Unfortunately, more smoke is on the way.

Not to mention along with the 10% CIG1 TOR risk, there is also a substantial wind threat for much of Maine with a 30% CIG1 designation too. Thinking is a complex of storms, some of which could be supercells, will be capable of damaging winds as they race southeast towards the coast.

Chris Legro@oceanstwx.bsky.social · 3w ago

SPC has issued a 10% area for tornado risk (at intensity level 1 no less), which is a first for that part of the forecast area. This is NOT your typical summer severe thunderstorm risk for areas with a lot of people sleeping and playing outdoors.

SPC has issued a 10% area for tornado risk (at intensity level 1 no less), which is a first for that part of the forecast area. This is NOT your typical summer severe thunderstorm risk for areas with a lot of people sleeping and playing outdoors.

Muchová vs Nosková. Set 2 of the Wimbledon Ladies final.

Maximus: Are You Not Entertained?

ALT: Maximus: Are You Not Entertained?

static.klipy.com

The same governor overseeing a state that happily provided funding to the Inola smelter plant or promised millions of dollars to subsidize Canoo which filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy and ceased operations. But ok sure, SNAP recipients need to feel embarrassed… the cruelty is the point.

Susan Rinkunas@susanrinkunas.com · 4w ago

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt said it's too easy for people to feed their families with SNAP benefits and suggested they should have to go to food banks so they feel embarrassed. The real embarrassment is lack of living wages stateline.org/2026/07/09/f... h/t @kelciemmorris.bsky.social @stateline.org

A new paper on WoFS in collaboration w/ colleagues at the Aviation Weather Center is now live in NWA’s Journal of Operational Meteorology! This was a pretty fun project to work on back in 2024 and gave us interesting perspectives about how WoFS can impact decisions for aviation. Article link below 👇

Being back here has reminded me of why Denver and Boulder have always been a second home to me. It has been far too long, but it has been special to return to this place after many years. It will not be another long time before being back again! After all, AMS 2027 is in Denver 😎

Sooooooo all of that manipulation to bring back Balogun as if he was the ultimate savior of the team and the U.S. still got spanked 4-1 by yet another strong UEFA team in Belgium. Once again, all the money poured into U.S. men’s soccer yields no tangible result when it counts. UEFA is UEFA, period.

Also saw velocity signatures at roughly 110-120 mph at ~300 ft AGL right before it passed the north base radar. Figured with that, it really seemed like a true pucker-your-butt time. 25k customers in Cleveland Co without power plus numerous reports of tree damage. BIG YIKES 🥴

Tony Lyza@tlyza89.bsky.social · last mo.

91 mph (pre-QCed) at the Norman mesonet site. That explains a lot.

12 years ago, our group from the CSU REU (then CMMAP) visited @ncar-ucar.bsky.social and we got to hang around the trailhead where this picture was taken. Fast forward to today, and I got to relive this moment with @montanam.bsky.social. A special moment, and it won’t be 12 years till the next one!

Randomly walking Pearl St today and came across a pop-up canvas for @neguse.house.gov! Such a pleasure to be able to thank him for his efforts to raise awareness about NCAR, NOAA, and its partners and the work we do. We’ll keep fighting the good fight!

The smoke situation in DEN is quite a bit worse than I anticipated. Landing on 35L and all I could see was a front range that is obscured in haze along with a pale gray and milky sky. Hopeful that these raging fires in southern CO can be on their way to being contained, even by just a bit.

Breaking News! Code: y-axis alert! Well, NOAA has finally done it. They finally extended the y-axis to 5.0°C for the CFSv2 Nino 3.4 monthly forecast after it became obvious to pretty much everyone that 4.0°C was absurd. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFS...

Going from a one-hit shutout to a blown save to a 2-run deficit between the 9th and 10th innings is just a microcosm of the 2026 Red Sox.

SPC has upgraded parts of UT/CO to extremely critical fire weather again this afternoon, a day after 3 federal firefighters were killed in a burnover incident on a wildfire along the border of those states. Meanwhile, 4 people were killed by flash flooding in KY on Saturday. tinyurl.com/4jc55zbd

Seven people reported killed in weather related incidents on Saturday

Four die in Kentucky flooding, while three federal firefighters killed in"burnover incident" in rapidly spreading wildfire along Utah/Colorado border

tinyurl.com

Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions will continue to hold a grip on portions of Utah and northern Arizona through the afternoon. This is certainly one of the most higher-end fire wx setups modeled in WoFS I can recall, with expansive RFTI values > 7 even at a the higher, stricter threshold.