@financialtimes.com is running a terrific series on the #UAE. Well-reported and highly interesting. However, today’s part of the series examined Abu Dhabi’s growing footprint in Africa without discussion of the Emiratis’ involvement in #Libya.

Washington’s quagmire with #Iran relies on a basic trick: treating the domestic rhetoric of the regime as proof of suicidal intent while ignoring actual behavior. Excellent reality check on threat inflation from Christopher Fettweiss in the new Survival www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Why can't a superpower end its own allies' wars — even while arming and funding them? Bargaining theory explains war duration through commitment & info problems between belligerents, but rarely asks how a patron's weapons flows reshape that balance. @brookings.edu’s Dafna Rand takes this on directly

Provocative piece by Nader Hashemi in @foreignaffairs.com on #Iran. Suggests regime change more likely to come from peace than conflict. However, he treats the war and the peace deal after it as two separate chapters: suffer through one, cash in on the other for democratization.

The Hidden Path to Regime Change in Iran

Ending the war can strengthen the prospects for democracy.

foreignaffairs.com

#Iran is proving the military "hammer" isn't as fungible as Trump thinks (@nytimes.com,@sangernyt.bsky.social). Like 1986 strikes on #Libya: produced a "political integrative effect,” w/ country uniting around Qaddafi. Strikes on Iran have facilitated the #IRGC's increase in influence.

Trump Seems Trapped by Iran War, Even as He Wields the World’s Biggest Hammer

A president who thought there were no limits to his power has discovered several, leaving him more frustrated and erratic.

nytimes.com

Houthi Red Sea threat would challenge a stretched US military – @phildstewart.bsky.social & Idrees Ali, @reuters.com. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Houthi Red Sea threat would challenge a stretched US military

Its threat to impose a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia could significantly widen the Iran war.

reuters.com

The irony of the #IranWar: @senategop.govpeeps.us & @houserepublicans.bsky.social will be forced to fund a war they never authorized nor oversaw. Interesting piece by Robert Jimison @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/u....

G.O.P. Boxed In on Iran War as Trump Sidelines Congress

Republicans now face a worst-case political scenario of being asked to fund an unpopular war over which they have exercised little oversight.

nytimes.com

Iran war: least popular in US polling history. Just 27% say invading was right; only 1 in 4 think we won ( @economist.com). My take: Americans are defeat-averse, not casualty-averse, per se — the thesis at the heart of "Success Matters" (Gelpi, Feaver & Reifler), @intsecurity.bsky.social.

Dr. Rosemary Kelanic (@defpriorities.bsky.social) says Saudi enrichment is "a concession to Israel." It isn't. Israel opposes it, and the normalization it's meant to buy won't happen without a two-state deal this government will never offer.

US strikes just hit an IRGC base in Sistan-Balochistan — the force that helps contain Jaish al-Adl via coordination with Pakistan, as I argued in March. Lived in Iraqi Kurdistan and Karachi — this seam matters. 🎧 @warontherocks.bsky.social - open.spotify.com/episode/2uO8...

How Arming Iranian Kurds Could Backfire

The Insider · Episode

open.spotify.com

The @mybisa.bsky.social publishes a great list of careers for young professionals. The jobs are in International Relations (IR) or IR-related fields. This is worth sharing with students you know looking for a position or an internship: www.bisa.ac.uk/members/work...

IR career starters - July 2026- Postgraduate Network (PGN) | BISA

- Postgraduate Network (PGN) Working Group

bisa.ac.uk

@mattbaidc.bsky.social drew a parallel between Trump & Jimmy Carter in @rollingstone.com (rollingstone.com/politics/pol...). However, history may show that the 47th President bears a greater likeness to a different Democratic predecessor: Lyndon Baines Johnson.

How Donald Trump Became Jimmy Carter

Donald Trump is overseeing inflation spurred by a crisis in Iran, much like former President Jimmy Carter during the hostage crisis.

rollingstone.com

@hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social opposes “Massie Amendment” to cut off aid to #Israel BUT “given the strongly held views throughout the Caucus in this important area of foreign policy, we are not whipping this vote.“ www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

Jeffries-dear colleague-July-14-2026

documentcloud.org

Anti-foreign protests can be useful tools for autocracies. They allow autocrats to signal that concessions would be too costly for them to bear domestically. However, if populated by rent-a-crowds, the signal is likely to be ignored by the target state (US).

A Wave of Iranian Nationalism Is Drowning Out Its Diplomats

Fervor whipped up during the conflict is making it hard to compromise and easy for hard-liners to stymie progress.

wsj.com

#Iran’s seizure of the #StraitofHormuz may prove to have similar long-term consequences as the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The embargoes led the U.S. and other countries to diversify their supply of oil. Dubai is building a port to circumvent the strait. www.ft.com/content/1f97...

The Trump Administration’s strikes on Bandar Abbas & Sirik have left it to the rest of the world to infer what they are trying to accomplish & their strategy.

Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter said on Sunday that the IDF will only withdraw from Lebanon if Hezbollah is removed from pilot zones in the country's south. www.jpost.com/israel-news/...

Israeli ambassador to US says IDF Lebanon withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah | The Jerusalem Post

He added that US President Donald Trump "has been consistent" throughout the war with Iran, saying that Israel will join the Americans in their current campaign if requested.

jpost.com

Deeply sorry to hear of the sudden loss of Senator Lindsey Graham. Having been part of his 2015 campaign, I always respected his tireless, globe-trotting commitment to American foreign policy and national security. May he rest in peace. My condolences to his family and staff.

The U.S. and Iran have been exchanging strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 140 targets in Iran overnight, while Iran said it responded with fire toward Jordan and other Gulf states.

U.S. launches fresh strikes on Iran as Tehran says it has closed Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. and Iran have been exchanging strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 140 targets in Iran overnight, while Iran said it responded with fire toward Jordan and other Gulf states.

n.pr

The U.S. has initiated a set of retaliatory strikes against #Iran in response to the closing of the Strait of #Hormuz. In April, I predicted why these are unlikely to work in 19fortyfive.com. See: www.19fortyfive.com/2026/04/goli...

Goliath's Curse: Why American Power Makes Iran More Resistant, Not Less

21 hours of talks in Islamabad produced nothing. Vance called it a "final and best offer." Iran said no. The reason is structural: Iraq disarmed and was overthrown. Libya disarmed and Gaddafi was kill...

19fortyfive.com

There is a consistent push-pull between “moderates” and “hard-liners” in #Iran over how much to engage with the world, specifically the U.S. Because of the war initiated in February 2026, the hard-liners are winning.

The interesting thing about @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s Tel Aviv speech was not the content. The most interesting thing about @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s speech is it signaled the US is edging closer to a new bipartisan consensus on #Israel. Away from “no daylight” to “conditional affection.”

Gulf unity talk is back ( @politico.com NatSecDaily). It'll fail again, like it did after 1990. Riyadh/UAE status rivalry blocks coordination. Kuwait/Qatar need Iran's goodwill for Hormuz; Saudi/UAE don't. Expect fragmentation & bespoke deals, not a bloc. More: www.19fortyfive.com/2026/06/the-...

The Gulf No Longer Trusts America to Protect It, So It's Cutting Its Own Deal With Iran

After a U.S. security umbrella failed in 2026, the Gulf states are building their own order, engaging Iran directly rather than relying on Washington.

19fortyfive.com

Sirens sound in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar following US attack on Iran. www.jpost.com/middle-east/...

Sirens sound in Gulf states following US attack on Iran | The Jerusalem Post

The Bahrain News Agency, Bahrain's state media, attributed the sirens to missiles from Iran.

jpost.com

Is Donald Trump serious in declaring the ceasefire with Iran over?

Is Donald Trump serious in declaring the ceasefire with Iran over?

Iran’s ultranationalist new leaders may welcome his bluster

bit.ly

Based on the leaked excerpts of @rahmemanuel.bsky.social’s Tel Aviv speech, it could be given by @sanders.senate.gov, @aoc.bsky.social, @mattduss.bsky.social, or @grahamformaine.bsky.social and we wouldn’t know the difference. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/u...

As Israel Loses Support in the U.S., Rahm Emanuel Criticizes Netanyahu

nytimes.com

Do the Saudi and Emirati workarounds count as parallel?

Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · last mo.

Iran’s view on Hormuz and the MoU. Note: “Any external interference or attempt to establish parallel arrangements would violate the MoU.” It follows that a US-backed, non-IRGC-controlled route near Oman would be “parallel” to Iran’s own arrangements. en.irna.ir/news/8619921...

Kremlinology watch: Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hasn't been seen publicly since his father's assassination. Unclear if he'll attend today's funeral. No-show → IRGC really runs things. Shows up frail → same read. Shows up healthy → maybe Mojtaba has real power. Watch his face.

What do the Iran war, Assad's collapse, and the PKK's dissolution mean for the Kurds going forward? I cover the KRG's eroding leverage with Baghdad for @warontherocks.bsky.social roundtable: warontherocks.com/the-shifting...

The Shifting Fortunes of the Kurds

The Kurds’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed in recent years, but the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the 2025 decision by the Kurdistan

warontherocks.com

New @warontherocks.bsky.social: how do the Iran war, Assad's fall, & the PKK's dissolution reshape Kurdish prospects? Joined @gonultol.bsky.social, @akmckeever.bsky.social, & Mohammed Salih to break it down. My section: KRG's leverage with Baghdad. warontherocks.com/the-shifting...

The Shifting Fortunes of the Kurds

The Kurds’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed in recent years, but the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the 2025 decision by the Kurdistan

warontherocks.com