Introducing: The Continuity Heuristic. New paper by Matt Fisher and I now out in Journal of Consumer Psychology. In 24 original studies, we show that people use the length of time something has been to predict how much longer it will be, particularly when knowledge in a domain is lower. Link👇
Adam H. Smiley
@asmiley.bsky.social
Social psychologist and assistant professor at Belmont University. affective polarization, religion, judgment & decision making, metascience. Washington PhD 🟣🟡 ✞ https://adamhsmiley.owlstown.net/
Introducing: The Continuity Heuristic. New paper by Matt Fisher and I now out in Journal of Consumer Psychology. In 24 original studies, we show that people use the length of time something has been to predict how much longer it will be, particularly when knowledge in a domain is lower. Link👇
Today we're releasing AI for RStudio. It's really, really good—I'd encourage you to point it at the messiest data sources you have and see what it can do. www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2026-03...
In an interesting #SPSP2026 talk, @asmiley.bsky.social presented work suggesting that the proportion of out-partisans at one’s church had a curvilinear association with affective polarization—politically balanced churches showed the lowest rates of affective polarization.
#SPSP2026 was awesome! Great to see friends new and old and get to spend a weekend talking about really cool research!
If you’re at #SPSP2026 come check out our symposium this afternoon!! Ameliorators and Aggravators of Affective Polarization 🫏 🐘 2-3:10pm in E353A
Very excited to be chairing this symposium at @spspnews.bsky.social this Saturday at 2 with @abdoe.bsky.social! With Zarnab Zahoor (UIC) and Jan Voelkel (Cornell), we will collectively discuss the factor which can combat or amplify group-based animosity amidst rampant polarization. (Room E353A) 🧵1/6
I met Ed a few years ago when he lived at my grandparents’ senior living home in Rochester. He showed me his amazing art collection, with 100+ paintings of Monhegan Island, and answered my many questions about his career. A true legend, and a kind and generous soul. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/s...
Edward L. Deci, 83, Dies; Found Self-Determination as a Key to Happiness
nytimes.com
Another cool data blitz from #SPSP political psych precon. People asume there are two large coalitions in the U.S.: liberals & conservatives. But, work by @isaiasghezae.bsky.social suggests there are instead 3: (1) conservatives, (2) ideological liberals, and (3) a liberal demographic group.
Some interesting talks this morning at the #SPSP political psychology preconference! First up, Beth Anne Helgasom discussed work across five studies (1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, and 3) that found that partisans are more lenient in judging the falsehoods said by politicians they support versus oppose, because
Very excited to be chairing this symposium at @spspnews.bsky.social this Saturday at 2 with @abdoe.bsky.social! With Zarnab Zahoor (UIC) and Jan Voelkel (Cornell), we will collectively discuss the factor which can combat or amplify group-based animosity amidst rampant polarization. (Room E353A) 🧵1/6
Who is more religious: religiously unaffiliated Latin Americans or European Christians? We compared these groups on three measures: 🌟 Belief in God 🙏 Frequency of prayer 🤲 If they consider religion to be very important in their lives. 🧵👇
Oh interesting: the MN National Guard had publicly promoted that, if deployed, they would wear bright vests to differentiate themselves from DHS, who wear camo despite not being in the U.S military — and it appears they really did!
Minnesota National Guard members have arrived at a federal building and were directed to distribute donuts, coffee, and hot chocolate to anti-ICE protesters. Guard members were issued reflective vests so they would not be mistaken for federal agents.
In 13% of special issues produced by several major publishers over the past decade, the guest editor contributed more than 1/3 of the papers themselves As usual, MDPI and Frontiers journals are among the worst offenders.
Felt compelled to say something about the harms of self-serving politicians, so I wrote my first ever op-ed which was just published in The Tennessean! (Un-paywalled version in replies, below) www.tennessean.com/story/opinio...
How Trump-first politics impact Greenland and Tennessee | Opinion
Loyalty to President Trump is shaping decisions at the highest levels of government, and Middle Tennessee is not immune.
tennessean.com
A downside to literally no one in this Administration understanding basic economics is that "we're going to raise tariffs until you give up Greenland" is the econ version of "I'm going to repeatedly kick myself in the testicles until you do what I want" www.cnbc.com/2026/01/17/t...
Trump: NATO members to face tariffs increasing to 25% until a Greenland purchase deal is struck
Trump recently hinted that he may pursue a tariff strategy on Greenland similar to the one he used to force foreign countries to change their drug prices.
cnbc.com
“ICE Watch works because it surrounds men seeking approval with people loudly expressing their disapproval.“
For @msnownews.bsky.social, I wrote an article about how ICE Watch is grounded in sociological theories of violence prevention. The reality is that most men will only commit public violence in extremely specific scenarios and ICE Watch disrupts the conditions necessary for escalation.
@pewresearch.org, with support from the @templetonfdn.bsky.social, invites researchers at all career stages (including doctoral students) to submit proposals for new research publications using recent Global Religious Futures datasets. 🗓️ Apply by March 2, 2026 sssreligion.org/announcement...
In 2026!??? 🥹 www.reuters.com/world/us-sen...
US Senate passes bill to boost federal science spending after White House sought major cuts
The U.S. Senate voted on Thursday to approve billions of dollars in funding for federal science agencies, rejecting deep cuts proposed by President Donald Trump in space and other areas.
reuters.com
Bukayo Saka on what his faith means to him ❤️ Sponsored by our great friends New Balance
Had a blast at my first IRPS (Institute for Research on Psychology and Spirituality) meeting at Biola University - my alma mater!
I can't say this loudly enough: THEY ARE TRYING TO NORMALIZE THE KILLING OF CIVILIANS FOR PARTICIPATING IN FIRST AMENDMENT PROTECTED PROTEST ACTIVITIES.
Homan: "We gotta stop the hateful rhetoric. Saying this officer is a murderer is dangerous. It's just ridiculous. It's gonna infuriate people more which means there's gonna be more incidents like this."
Had a blast at my first IRPS (Institute for Research on Psychology and Spirituality) meeting at Biola University - my alma mater!
1909 - Macclesfield are the first non-league team to eliminate the FA Cup holders since Crystal Palace knocked out Wolves in the 1908-09 first round. Fairytale.
I'm sure someone else has suggested this, but it's time for mandatory DOIs in reference lists. This will make it easier to identify hallucinated references
NEW: Data released by ICE shows that virtually the entire growth of detention in the last few months has been among people with no criminal record at all - no prior convictions (no matter how minor) and no pending criminal charges.
92% of ICE Detention Growth in FY 2026 Driven by Immigrants with No Criminal Convictions ICE published new detention data today that brings the current population to a record-high of 68,990. ICE records first detention death of 2026. austinkocher.substack.com/p/92-of-ice-...
We should no longer trust data collected on MTurk link.springer.com/article/10.3... My guess is that other online data is going to drop in quality due to LLMs. This is going to be an existential crisis for the behavioral sciences.
Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).
"We consistently found null results, not just for overall samples but for sub-groups that have been hypothesized as the most likely to be affected by moral reframing...the observed data are 100x more likely to occur under the null hypothesis (of no effect) than the moral foundations hypothesis."
I need everyone in the political communications world who found the moral foundations reframing approach promising (which includes me) to read this paper It doesn't replicate in new research. It just doesn't work. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Postdoctoral positions: Our team at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public is accepting applications for up to two postdoc positions, starting in Fall 2026. Priority deadline is Jan 15. If you know someone who might be interested, let them know!
We're currently accepting applications to hire up to two @cip.uw.edu postdoctoral scholars to join our team in Seattle. The priority deadline to apply is January 15, 2026. For the position description, salary range, qualifications and application process, click here: apply.interfolio.com/177901