Ariane Tabatabai
@atabatabai.bsky.social
Vice President of Research for Security & Defense at Chicago Council on Global Affairs • Contributing Editor at Lawfare • Ex Pentagon & State Department • Author of No Conquest, No Defeat (Oxford University Press) & co-author of Triple Axis (Bloomsbury)
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @nkorpett.bsky.social, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week's big national security news stories, including the U.S.-Iran war flaring back to life and more. youtu.be/k71SPxIJEjc
"American leaders have long treated Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as separate challenges," the Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social and @egmontinstitute.bsky.social's John Drennan write in @time.com. "The US-Israel war with Iran exposed once again the folly of that approach." Read more ⤵️
How America’s Adversaries Have Stopped Fighting Alone
The war with Iran has made it clear that America’s adversaries are increasingly acting as a coordinated bloc.
time.com
"Home by Christmas" — the oldest refrain of wars of choice. New Lawfare Daily on the Short War Illusion: Ukraine, Iran, and what Beijing is drawing from both about Taiwan. Check out the podcast with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @massdara.bsky.social on @lawfaremedia.org.
Lawfare Daily: Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and the Short War Illusion
Dispelling the "Short War Illusion."
lawfaremedia.org
On Lawfare Daily, @nkorpett.bsky.social, @massdara.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @juliacurlee.bsky.social discussed how the "Short War Illusion," where countries believe that with the right strategy, they can accomplish their goals with a quick war, is playing out in conflicts today.
"I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily," Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social tells @npr.org of the US war with Iran. "I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we're in."
Trump says the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a deal
NPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks to Ariane Tabatabai of the the Chicago Council on Global Affairs about potential offramps from the war available to the U.S. and Iran.
n.pr
Good to sit down with Libby Berry from @global-affairs.bsky.social to discuss where things stand with Russia's war on Ukraine, what the rest of Europe can learn from Ukraine's defence tech ecosystem, and where Ukraine goes from here. Read the interview here: globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
How Russia's War on Ukraine is Reshaping Europe's Defense Strategy
The conflict offers lessons for how to bolster European security with less support from the United States.
globalaffairs.org
Exactly this. Obviously, first and foremost, the human cost of this war should be the focus. (2 more service members today and how many civilians?) But also, we need to talk about the readiness impact of this war and how long (and how much $) it’ll take to rebuild after these choices.
Caroline Baxter@convergingriskslab.bsky.social · 3w agoTraining and maintenance are readiness bedrock, generated deliberately over time. And DoD, having now jackhammered that bedrock til the house started collapsing, will spend a generation - during an unstable moment - recreating what took five months to lose. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
🎙️ New Rational Security: @sranderson.bsky.social, Dan Byman, @juliacurlee.bsky.social & @atabatabai.bsky.social on the collapsed Iran ceasefire and Trump's "Guardian of the Strait" toll plan, a tense NATO summit in Ankara, and the U.S.-Israel relationship fraying in public. youtu.be/8uWuo1r7sY4?...
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, Daniel Byman, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s foreign policy news, including the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, last week's NATO meeting, and more. youtu.be/8uWuo1r7sY4
Great to be back on @npr.org’s All Things Considered to discuss the demise of the US-Iran ceasefire and what happens next: one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5886...
🔊 Listen Now: President Trump says ceasefire with Iran is over. What happens next?
All Things Considered on NPR One | 5:56
one.npr.org
"A Le Pen presidency would likely be a negation of Macron’s approach to international affairs and a complete departure from the past decade of French foreign policy," Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/4p7CjWB
What a Le Pen Presidency Could Mean for France, Europe, and NATO
Far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen has joined the French presidential race. Her victory would spark a complete departure from French foreign policy under Macron.
globalaffairs.org
NATO summit in Ankara wraps with renewed focus on Greenland, Iran ceasefire uncertainty, and U.S.-Spain trade. Fresh off the ground there, my readout: what got done (Ukraine support!), intra-NATO tensions, and Türkiye as host. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...
Inside the NATO Summit in Ankara: Ukraine, Iran, and Turkey's F-35 Bid
From Turkey's F-35 ambitions to Zelensky's meeting with Trump, Council expert Ariane Tabatabai unpacks how burden sharing, Ukraine's evolving role, and unresolved tensions over Iran shaped this year's...
globalaffairs.org
So we are: 1. Terminating all sanctions on Iran, including human rights designations; 2. Deporting Iranian asylum seekers to a country engaging in mass repression; 3. AND sharing info on said individuals so they get detained, tortured, and possibly killed upon return?! www.npr.org/2026/07/07/g...
New lawsuit alleges US shared asylum application details with Iran
A lawsuit alleges the Trump administration is divulging details of Iranian asylum seekers to the government of Iran.
npr.org
@columbiauniversity.bsky.social's Richard Nephew and @brookings.edu's Dafna Rand joined Council Vice President of Research Ariane Tabatabai for a conversation on how the choices the United States makes now will shape what Iran looks like when the fighting stops. Watch: bit.ly/3SDVHOZ
Ahead of the 2026 NATO Summit, Council experts Julianne Smith, @atabatabai.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @armida.bsky.social, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social, and Dina Smeltz weigh in on what's driving fractures within NATO and the challenges the alliance faces beyond defense spending.
Beyond Defense Spending: What's at Stake for NATO in Ankara
Ahead of the 2026 NATO Summit, Council experts examine deeper fractures over threat perception, alliance trust, and Washington's commitment.
bit.ly
"NATO 3.0 fails not because it asks Europeans to do more, but because it never defines what they are supposed to do more of, or why, and because it has made force posture an instrument of political coercion rather than strategic planning," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.
NATO 3.0: A Tagline in Search of a Concept
Force Posture Decisions Have Become Another Coercive Tool in the Trump Administration’s Alliance Management Toolkit
lawfaremedia.org
Yesterday on Word on the Street Live, J Street’s @ilangoldenberg.bsky.social and Iran experts @atabatabai.bsky.social and Nate Swanson discussed the lack of accountability for the politicians and policymakers who champion ill-conceived wars that cost thousands of lives and harm U.S. interests. 1/2
As the United States turns 250, it faces growing skepticism about its leadership on the world stage. But rebuilding trust with allies will take more than an election cycle, Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social writes. Read the full analysis ➡️ bit.ly/4aBuRNs
Apparently the plan is to have the U.S. military implement the playbook of the Revolutionary Guards. We spent billions of dollars on a war so that Iran could just outsource its decades long plan of closing the Strait to the U.S. Navy.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo ago"President Trump told Fox News the US may take over the strait in the future if they have to & collect tolls. The president described this as the US being the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz & Middle East. He said that would involve the US taking 20% of the oil that passes through the strait"
@sranderson.bsky.social, @alanrozenshtein.com, @tylermcbrien.com, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social break down a busy week in national security from the U.S.-Iran deal to the Commerce Department's export control order on Anthropic's AI models. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/rati...
On June 17, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding negotiated by Iran and the United States to end the 110-day-long war. J. Dana Stuster explains what is–and is not–in the agreement, the supposed final deal to come, and the many ways this flimsy arrangement might unravel.
Ceasefire Without End
The Memorandum of Understanding with Iran will end the U.S.-Iran conflict without ending the war.
lawfaremedia.org
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @alanrozenshtein.com, @tylermcbrien.com, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s national security news, including the potential deal between the United States and Iran, and more. youtu.be/C2kN6Hj9pV0
This here is really great work. It’s putting in numbers, black on white, what we have known for a while: that the admin’s stated objectives for and goal posts in the conflict have been shifting throughout the war. And that’s apparent in the poor planning for the war and this agreement.
Laura Jedeed@laurajedeed.bsky.social · 2mo agoWhen Trump went to war with Iran, I watched every speech anyone in the administration gave and made a chart of every reason given for going to war "Eliminate ballistic capability" was the #1 reason given: more even than preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
The US and Iran reached a deal — but "we don't really know a whole lot," says Council VP of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social. The nuclear issue, Iran's proxy support, and its ballistic missile program are all unresolved. Now a 60-day clock is ticking to work it out. bit.ly/4fMIBsc
The United States and Iran Reach a Deal but Agree to Little
Trump celebrated his 80th birthday with a UFC fight and a preliminary deal with Iran, kicking off a 60-day clock for negotiations.
globalaffairs.org
If this is the text of the MOU with Iran, it is an absolute disaster. Iran gives almost nothing, the U.S. makes many concessions. This is what happens when Congress goes MIA, and people with no experience and understating of the issues run the show. www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/m...
Read the 14-point draft agreement between the US and Iran | CNN
The agreement between Iran and the US lays out the terms of the ceasefire between the bitter rivals, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, some financial relief for Iran and a reiteration from Tehran...
cnn.com
Trump keeps saying this war and agreement are about Iran never acquiring a nuclear weapon, except that the interim deal signed this week as reported doesn’t seem to be that concerned with the nuclear issue. There are few details (none, really) on what we’re limiting and how we’re verifying it.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoTrump: "This agreement is about one thing -- that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Never ever ever. The rest of it is irrelevant, frankly."
Exactly this. There is a reason why we typically spell out agreement provisions in detailed legalese. That’s especially true with an adversary like Iran with a history of covert activities in violation of its international obligations.
Jon B. Wolfsthal@jonatomic.bsky.social · 2mo agoAs someone who has negotiated with Iran, been to Iran and worked to prevent a nuclear Iran for over 30 years I can tell you, if it is not in the text, it is not agreed to. Release the text.
So I am no @djrothkopf.bsky.social but I tested out the Substack podcast tool. I spoke to @joecirin.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social about US-Iran "agreement" and what to look out for in the hours, days and weeks ahead. Gonna be a long bumpy road. thinkingnuclear.substack.com/p/deal-or-no...
Deal or No Deal: Iran Edition.
A recording by Jon Wolfsthal with my colleague Joe Cirincione and Ariane Tabatabai
thinkingnuclear.substack.com
Just finished a great talk with @jonatomic.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social. Jon will publish the whole thing soon on his Substack. Here's a preview.
