CIA is barred from influencing our domestic politics. Not by custom, not by norm — by law. Congress should demand to know who wrote these docs, when, and who tasked them. Those questions have answers. None are secrets. I break it down with @granthermes.bsky.social and @stevencash.bsky.social

Did Trump Use the CIA to Lie About 2020? Ex-Intel Officers Say Maybe

Cheers to two Years of Make It Make Sense! Independent journalism only works with your support, so thank you!

makeitmakesensepod.substack.com

"Home by Christmas" — the oldest refrain of wars of choice. New Lawfare Daily on the Short War Illusion: Ukraine, Iran, and what Beijing is drawing from both about Taiwan. Check out the podcast with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @massdara.bsky.social on @lawfaremedia.org.

Two CIA ops officers and an analyst walk into a podcast... @johnsipher.bsky.social and Jerry O'Shea had me on Mission Implausible to discuss the NSC purge, the politicization of CIA, and what it will take to rebuild. Plus we declassify what is really in SPAM... Link to Part Two in the comments.

The National Security Council Purge (with Julia Curlee)

Podcast Episode · Mission Implausible · July 26 · 33m

podcasts.apple.com

White House letterhead doesn’t make it true. The new “fact sheet” identifies no altered votes, no evidence any foreign actor changed the 2020 election. Now agency heads have enlisted their institutions to discredit an election the President lost. I spoke with the Washington Post:

Trump’s claims of election interference in doubt after release of declassified intelligence

Declassified evidence points to Beijing seeking personal data for espionage, not election interference.

wapo.st

Glad to speak to the NYTimes’s @dustinvolz.bsky.social about DNI Pulte’s final destructive act: “The bill will come due in low morale and in Americans who won’t apply. Congress should demand to know what this is meant to achieve, and which national security functions will go unperformed.”

Trump’s Spy Chief Spends Final Hours in Job Boasting of Mass Firings

Bill Pulte, the acting director of national intelligence, said he has terminated nearly a third of the officials in his office, but others doubt the figures are accurate.

nytimes.com

We need to draw the line here. The most powerful intel apparatus on Earth should never be used to message the American people. This is bad. It can get worse.

The Steady State@thesteadystate.org · last wk.

The declassified PRC "CIA Note" raises serious questions. Just minutes ago, The Steady State published a letter and an in-depth analysis explaining why our experts are concerned - and why you should be, too. Find the letter, analysis, and the full CIA Note below: drive.google.com/file/d/1Kmpf...

Day One of a war over Taiwan would be the largest amphibious operation since D-Day — attempted by a PLA that hasn’t fought a war since 1979. I talked with Sasha Ingber about what Beijing is taking from the Iran war, and why cheap denial tools favor the defender.

What Beijing is learning from the Iran war

What is China learning from the U.S.

substack.com

Don’t leave me hanging like this Bill

Baghdad, 2005. A four-star general sat down at my laptop and hit delete. “Minimal Progress” became “Progress.” The graph showing attacks rising — gone. “I’m on with POTUS in an hour. Print it.” I did. New in Lawfare: how politicization works, and what it costs us.

What They Want to Hear: The Politicization of U.S. Intelligence

A campaign of firings and clearance revocations is teaching the intelligence community that silence is the only job security.

lawfaremedia.org

702 is vital intel authority — but we have to be able to trust our government won’t turn it against us. The administration must stop treating some Americans as the enemy within.

Lawfare@lawfaremedia.org · 2w ago

🎙️ New Rational Security: @sranderson.bsky.social, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, @ericcolumbus.bsky.social & @mollyroberts.bsky.social break down Trump's declassified "election interference" docs, the DOJ/Pentagon leak crackdown, and the rocky confirmation hearings for Jay Clayton and Todd Blanche.

To quote the Princess Bride re: President Trump’s claim of election interference. “I do not think it means what you think it means.” I read the docs so you didn’t have to.

Lawfare@lawfaremedia.org · 2w ago

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @ericcolumbus.bsky.social, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @mollyroberts.bsky.social discussed the week's news, including President Trump's address on elections, the confirmation hearings of Jay Clayton and Todd Blanche, and more. youtu.be/Idto8oi-7gU

Three developments. One story. Stay for the guitar solo. The administration declassifies what flatters, prosecutes what embarrasses, and installs the people to enforce it. This week on Rat Sec: the election speech, the leak probes, and the Clayton nomination.

Rational Security: The “(Deep State) Friends We Make Along the Way” Edition

YouTube video by Lawfare

youtube.com

There’s a reason CIA is barred from domestic political activity. We learned it the hard way, and Congress wrote the rules in response. Last week CIA was conscripted to serve the President’s attempt to undermine confidence in our elections. Glad to speak with @davidrohde.bsky.social

Is the CIA enabling or restraining Trump’s election conspiracy theories?

The president’s claim that U.S. spy agencies conspired against him has put CIA Director John Ratcliffe in an awkward position.

ms.now

@annabower.bsky.social, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, @noupside.bsky.social, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, @mollyroberts.bsky.social & @lorenvoss.bsky.social go through each allegation President Trump made in his speech last Thursday on the 2020 election and analyze what the documents really show.

Everything Trump’s Election Speech Did Not Prove

After years of searching for any scrap of evidence that suggests the 2020 election was stolen, the White House still hasn’t found it.

lawfaremedia.org

A land power with no navy shut the Strait of Hormuz — and the most powerful navy on earth couldn’t reopen it. The U.S. won every battle and lost the war. Beijing was watching. New in Lawfare: what the Iran war teaches China about Taiwan.

The Short-War Illusion: What Iran Teaches Beijing About Taiwan

In Iran, the U.S. won every battle but lost the war—a lesson for Beijing that decapitation and high-tech weapons don’t guarantee victory.

lawfaremedia.org

They went looking for a smoking gun and couldn’t find a warm muzzle. I briefed this president in his first term. Read the documents he declassified — they don’t say what he says they say. In some places, they say the opposite. I broke it down with Jessica Yellin:

Trump's Receipts Didn't Cooperate

CIA analyst Julia Curlee explains Trump's strange new election claims. Plus: DHS demands voter rolls. The Pentagon's bro science. Smoke without borders. And News That Doesn't Suck for women's health.

newsnotnoisejessicayellin.substack.com

Spoke with the New York Times about the cost of politicized intelligence — and the "generational damage to the intelligence agencies that are supposed to keep us safe and give the president decision advantage in the world."

Opinion | How Trump Abused the Power to Declassify America’s Secrets (Gift Article)

The president is manipulating the intelligence community into a tool of misinformation.

nytimes.com

Raw reporting is not intelligence. It’s an unfiltered stream, single-source claims, fragments, rumor. An entire discipline exists to weigh it and discard what doesn’t hold before it reaches a president. Fire those officers and you can’t tell garbage from intelligence. I spoke with The Atlantic:

Trump Still Hasn’t Found What He’s Looking For

The president’s prime-time speech was more notable for what it didn’t prove than for what it did.

theatlantic.com

The Iran deal didn’t just fail. It was built to fail. Purge the experts, ignore the analysis, launch a war of choice against a regime fighting for survival — this is what you get. This week’s Rational Security with @atabatabai.bsky.social @danbyman.bsky.social @scottanderson.bsky.social :

Assumed Dog Shirt was required. I regret nothing.

Killing the NSC with Julia Curlee

YouTube video by #DogShirtTV

youtube.com

Day Three: the White House sacked 160 NSC officials, breaking the system that’s coordinated U.S. national security since 1947. The wreckage helped drive the disastrous Iran war. I was the Acting Senior Director for Intel. My new piece for Lawfare, on what political loyalty over expertise costs:

The Purge: How the White House Broke the NSC and How to Fix It

Dismantling the machinery that coordinates U.S. foreign policy led to disaster, from ill-conceived tariffs to the calamitous war with Iran.

lawfaremedia.org

@shaneharris.bsky.social’s reporting confirms what @michael-feinberg.bsky.social and I wrote last week: retaliating against analysts for speaking truth will lead the U.S. into foreseeable disasters no one was willing to forecast. Our Lawfare piece: www.lawfaremedia.org/article/grad...

CIA Officers Can Sense the Threat Within

A survey reveals concern among the rank and file that Trump-administration meddling is undermining intelligence work.

theatlantic.com

No contest. Ukraine has the funniest President on Earth:

Adam Schwarz@adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 4w ago

Trump: "Would you go to Moscow?" Zelensky: "It's difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there. It would be dangerous."

@michael-feinberg.bsky.social and @juliacurlee.bsky.social trace how ODNI arrived at Bill Pulte: an office built to enforce analytic rigor, weakened by its own missteps, and now positioned for abuse just as Congress removed the guardrails meant to stop it. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/grad...

Gradually, and Then Suddenly: The Decline and Fall of ODNI

The decline of ODNI’s effectiveness, analytic rigor, and political neutrality is deleterious for the nation’s security. But it is also unsurprising.

lawfaremedia.org

Early this year, the DNI stood in a Georgia election office while the FBI seized ballots. This is not normal. An intel chief at an evidence scene is a sign of how a DNI run by political operatives can be turned on the President’s enemies. @michael-feinberg.bsky.social (former FBI) & I (former CIA):

Lawfare Daily: What's Happening at ODNI?

Unpacking how recent changes at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence impact its mission.

lawfaremedia.org

No matter how hard I look through John Trumbull’s works, I can’t find any paintings of the founding fathers — or the revolutionary soldiers — wearing masks. But then again, they weren’t cowards.

Performative firings to impress a President who calls his own intelligence community the "enemy within" isn't reform — it's arson. The result: the U.S. loses critical expertise and blunders into foreseeable crises no one was willing to forecast. My views in @washingtonpost.com @ellenwapo.bsky.social

New acting intel czar Bill Pulte starts trimming staff as Trump urged

Current and former intelligence officials say the efforts to shrink the office that coordinates the nation’s 18 spy services are haphazard and threaten its mission.

wapo.st

DNI Gabbard’s “Fauci Files”: do the documents back the headline? No — several say the opposite. That gap, between a verdict flung at the President’s enemies and the evidence, is politicization in plain sight. @noupside.bsky.social lays it out:

CIA taught me to deliver hard truths: In Iran, the U.S. won every battle and lost the war. 13 killed, 400 wounded, munitions drained, allies alienated, the U.S. impotent to reopen the Strait. The price of politicized intel: purge the experts, blunder into disaster. I break it down: @lawfaremedia.org

Rational Security: The “Predestination” Edition

YouTube video by Lawfare

youtu.be

On May 29, I walked across the CIA seal for the last time. Four presidents, three wars, thirty-five countries. I'm honored to join Lawfare as a Public Service Fellow, writing about the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and the institutions I gave my adult life — and what it will take to rebuild them.