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Ariane Tabatabai

@atabatabai.bsky.social

Vice President of Research for Security & Defense at Chicago Council on Global Affairs • Contributing Editor at Lawfare • Ex Pentagon & State Department • Author of No Conquest, No Defeat (Oxford University Press) & co-author of Triple Axis (Bloomsbury)

50 Posts727 Follower179 Folgt
Chicago Council on Global Affairs@global-affairs.bsky.social · 3d ago

"As long as each provocation costs Moscow nothing more than a downed drone, Putin has every reason to keep escalating," Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow in Defense and Security Julianne Smith writes for Foreign Affairs. vist.ly/5md2j

Russia’s Hybrid War Has Entered a Dangerous New Phase

Julianne Smith, who represented the United States at NATO during the Biden administration, argues that Russian hybrid warfare in Europe is escalating quickly, and NATO is not doing enough to deter it. Putin is attempting to discourage support for Ukraine and undermine faith in Article 5, and NATO is responding with an outdated playbook.

foreignaffairs.com

Ariane Tabatabai@atabatabai.bsky.social · 4d ago

It’s really wild going through 5 years of Republicans making my life hell based on made up nonsense about my working for Iran, citing national security concerns, when their guy can literally stand there and tell an adversarial regime (with whom we’re at war) to take out American cities.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5d ago

Trump: "With the war, it's just artificial. It's a little bit high. It's a small price to pay ... let them take out Los Angeles, let them take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay."

Ariane Tabatabai@atabatabai.bsky.social · 2w ago

I once again ask, has anyone seen Bridge Colby? How about the “hard on China” / “though on national security” Republicans on the Hill who only seem to care about it when Dems are in charge? Asking because it seems like blowing up alliances while offering to arm China would warrant some inquiries.

Ron Filipkowski@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 2w ago

US Ambassador to China David Perdue says in their recent meeting Trump asked President Xi if China wanted to buy weapons systems from the US.

Chicago Council on Global Affairs@global-affairs.bsky.social · 2w ago

After months of tensions over Greenland, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland have reached a deal over the semiautonomous territory. The Council's Julianne Smith, Deborah Rosenblum, and @atabatabai.bsky.social unpack what the security agreement means for NATO, Arctic security, and more. ⤵️

What Trump’s Greenland Deal Means for Arctic Security

Julianne Smith, Deborah Rosenblum, and Ariane Tabatabai discuss how the US-Denmark-Greenland agreement will impact US force posture, intra-NATO tensions, and Trump’s push to acquire Greenland.

globalaffairs.org

Ariane Tabatabai@atabatabai.bsky.social · 3w ago

10+ years of lobbying for this war & going after those questioning their logic. 7 months, 1000s of deaths, billions of $ into it, they’re learning: their goals weren’t reachable, they had serious gaps in “analysis,” they didn’t consider tradeoffs, and they hand waged inconvenient evidence.

The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 3w ago

Pretty big surrender bait here from the weak sisters at uh FDD www.fdd.org/analysis/202...

That doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that the regime falls or that Tehran can’t isolate sufficient resources for the production of missiles and drones. Iran has the world’s most tested sanctions-evasion network. One of the reasons that the clerical regime chose to concentrate on these projectiles is that they give superb bang for the buck. Obviously, fairly stringent US sanctions were unable to thwart the acquisition of whatever foreign parts were needed for these weapons. If either Moscow or Beijing is now helping Tehran with such projectiles, then US efforts are effectively checkmated.
Chicago Council on Global Affairs@global-affairs.bsky.social · last mo.

Six months into the war against Iran, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed? The Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social weighs in. bit.ly/4xZpSQ2

The Next Defining Moment of the Iran War

Six months into the war against Iran, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed?

globalaffairs.org

Benjamin Wittes@benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org · 2mo ago

It is not up to the president what the Kennedy Center is called. It is not up to the president what the Department of Defense is called. It is not up to the president what the Gulf of Mexico is called. It is not up to the president what Lake Ontario is called.

Ariane Tabatabai@atabatabai.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The failure in Iran is a direct consequence of the war of attrition waged against expertise in the government by this admin and its allies since January 20, 2025. This was all predictable and predicted. Thanks to @gregsargent.bsky.social for having me on the pod.

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Trump officials now admit his team failed to grasp Iran's rulers and were too confident in surrender, per Politico. But as @atabatabai.bsky.social notes on the pod, he gutted civil service/diplomatic corps, making this sort of failure more likely! She's so good here: newrepublic.com/article/2144...

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Trump officials now admit his team failed to grasp Iran's rulers and were too confident in surrender, per Politico. But as @atabatabai.bsky.social notes on the pod, he gutted civil service/diplomatic corps, making this sort of failure more likely! She's so good here: newrepublic.com/article/2144...

Trump Rage Erupts Over Iran as Aides Leak Embarrassing Truth: He Lost

As Trump melts down over Iran and officials quietly admit the unthinkable, a former Defense Department official explains why time is not on his side—and where this fiasco is headed next.

newrepublic.com

Ariane Tabatabai@atabatabai.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This is unfortunately yet another implication of the Iran war that was completely predictable (and apparently predicted by many except those in charge). www.militarytimes.com/news/your-mi...

Multiple USS Abraham Lincoln sailors have tried to go overboard amid extended deployment, families say

Multiple sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln have attempted to go overboard as the carrier's deployment stretches into its ninth month.

militarytimes.com

Chicago Council on Global Affairs@global-affairs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

"American leaders have long treated Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as separate challenges," the Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social and @egmontinstitute.bsky.social's John Drennan write in @time.com. "The US-Israel war with Iran exposed once again the folly of that approach." Read more ⤵️

How America’s Adversaries Have Stopped Fighting Alone

The war with Iran has made it clear that America’s adversaries are increasingly acting as a coordinated bloc.

time.com

Chicago Council on Global Affairs@global-affairs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

"I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily," Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social tells @npr.org of the US war with Iran. "I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we're in."

Trump says the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a deal

NPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks to Ariane Tabatabai of the the Chicago Council on Global Affairs about potential offramps from the war available to the U.S. and Iran.

n.pr