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Aaron Y. Zelin

@azelin.bsky.social

Senior Fellow @ Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Visiting Research Scholar in Dept of Politics @ Brandeis | Founder of Jihadology | Author of “The Age of Political Jihadism: A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” jihadology.net jihadologyplus.com

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The Washington Institute for Near East Policy@washinstitute.bsky.social · 2mo ago

In March 2023, the Institute launched the Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Map, a project spearheaded by @azelin.bsky.social. Three years later, the picture provided by this map has changed in ways that both confirm and complicate the trends identified at its one-year mark.

Tracking the Islamic State: Activity Trends, African Shifts, and U.S. Dormancy

As a landmark tool for tracking the group’s activity hits another sobering milestone, U.S. officials cannot let regional crises completely overshadow important shifts in jihadist threats around the wo...

washingtoninstitute.org

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy@washinstitute.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Washington should treat the current protest wave in Syria not as a sign that the country's transition is failing, "but as an opportunity to help ensure that Damascus does not repeat the mistakes of previous Syrian governments," writes @azelin.bsky.social.

Syria’s Protest Wave: A Governance Stress Test

Washington should treat the recent public discontent not as a sign that Syria’s transition is failing, but as an opportunity to help ensure that Damascus does not repeat the mistakes of previous gover...

washingtoninstitute.org

Aaron Y. Zelin@azelin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New analysis from me on tracking the Islamic State through the Worldwide Activity Map over the past 3+ years www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

Tracking the Islamic State: Activity Trends, African Shifts, and U.S. Dormancy

As a landmark tool for tracking the group’s activity hits another sobering milestone, U.S. officials cannot let regional crises completely overshadow important shifts in jihadist threats around the wo...

washingtoninstitute.org

Aaron Y. Zelin@azelin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New analysis from me on tracking the Islamic State through the Worldwide Activity Map over the past 3+ years www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

Tracking the Islamic State: Activity Trends, African Shifts, and U.S. Dormancy

As a landmark tool for tracking the group’s activity hits another sobering milestone, U.S. officials cannot let regional crises completely overshadow important shifts in jihadist threats around the wo...

washingtoninstitute.org

Aaron Y. Zelin@azelin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Check out my new article for the @washinstitute.bsky.social: “Syria’s New Government Appointments: More Continuity Than Change” www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

Syria’s New Government Appointments: More Continuity Than Change

The years that President Sharaa’s circle spent managing Idlib province now look less like improvised wartime governance and more like a deliberate long-term project to build the cadres of a future sta...

washingtoninstitute.org

ubi cedunt, vincere se appellant@pt109.bsky.social · 5mo ago

“[al-Sharaa] called for the creation of a joint military operations room between Gulf and Levantine states—partly to strengthen Arab unity against Iran, but also to make sure that Israel cannot impose its will over the region if Tehran is permanently weakened after the war.” Fascinating read:

Aaron Y. Zelin@azelin.bsky.social · 5mo ago

New article on Syria in the context of the Iran regional war www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy@washinstitute.bsky.social · 6mo ago

How will the Syrian government handle the fight with IS in the northeast? Several factors could make the northeast mission more complicated than what Sharaa and his supporters have dealt with elsewhere, writes @azelin.bsky.social.

Kurdish Collapse in Northeast Syria? Key Things to Watch

Washington Institute experts assess the immediate fallout of the Syrian government’s advance into SDF-held parts of the northeast, including mutual disinformation campaigns, implications for the Islam...

washingtoninstitute.org

Eliot Higgins@eliothiggins.bsky.social · 7mo ago

I’ve been reading Trump’s "Board of Peace Charter," and despite the name, this isn’t a multilateral institution, it’s a centralised structure built entirely around the authority of one person (Trump). www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-ch...

Full text: Charter of Trump’s Board of Peace

No mention of Gaza, which bolsters ToI's reporting that US also envisions panel helping resolve other conflicts worldwide; member countries must pay $1 billion for permanent spot

timesofisrael.com

Andy Craig@andycraig.bsky.social · 7mo ago

This is insane not just the explicit "go break the 4A" substance but how they knew how bad it was, acting in guilty paranoia to cover it up and suppress the written evidence. This isn't how running a government agency works. This is what a criminal conspiracy looks like, because that's what it is.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 7mo ago

🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional! ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 7mo ago

🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional! ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.

The Gravamen of the Disclosure 4. The gravamen of the disclosure is as follows: a. By memorandum dated May 12, 2025 (“the May 12 Memo”), Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons authorizes ICE agents to forcibly enter into certain people’s homes without a judicial warrant, consent, or an emergency. b. Specifically, in the May 12 Memo, the Acting ICE Director authorized ICE Agents to rely on Form I-205 (which is not a judicial warrant) to enter the residence of an alien subject to a final order of deportation, without consent, including by “a necessary and reasonable amount of force.”2c. While addressed to “All ICE Personnel,” in practice the May 12 Memo has not been formally distributed to all personnel. Instead, the May 12 Memo has been provided to select DHS officials who are then directed to verbally brief the new policy for action. Those supervisors then show the Memo to some employees, like our clients, and direct them to read the Memo and return it to the supervisor.
The Associated Press@apnews.com · 7mo ago

BREAKING: Immigration officers are asserting sweeping power to enter homes without a judge’s warrant, a memo obtained by AP says.

Mignon Fogarty@grammargirl.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Yesterday, I interviewed a tech guy who told me something too important for me to wait until the podcast comes out for you to hear it: Many free AI detectors have especially high false positive rates because they make money selling software that "humanizes" writing. 1/2

A.R. Moxon@juliusgoat.bsky.social · 7mo ago

I refuse to accept anything other than the resignation and immediate retirement of all of these fucking corporate candy-ass Democratic cowards. They’ve lost the right to do anything but get out of the way and live in disgrace for the rest of their days.

David Dayen@ddayen.bsky.social · 7mo ago

To quote one source: “They’re terrified of being labeled anti–law enforcement. They want this to go away so they can talk about the cost of living more. Problem is, it’s not going away.” prospect.org/2026/01/21/j...

Brooke@brooklynmarie.bsky.social · 7mo ago

This is a global far right power grab, so the sooner everybody realizes that and puts aside their deeply outdated notions around national identity, which got us here to begin with, the better. The only way out is through, but the only way through is all of us fighting these climate warlords together