Max Becker
@beckermax.bsky.social
Working on security and defence in 🇪🇺 @dgap.org views are my own
We are entering the next stage of the strategic breal-up between Europe and the US:
António Costa@eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu · 5mo agoThe unilateral decision by the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports is very concerning, as it impacts European security. Increasing economic pressure on Russia is decisive for it to accept a serious negotiation for a just and lasting peace.
This is an extremely important new paper by @armida.bsky.social 🚨 Defense can not be an elite project! Creating broad and deep public support is essential… not just to justify spending but also to create a better pool for military personnel and a convincing reason for compulsory military service.
How to build public support for defence spending in Europe
Strategies for building a national consensus around higher defence investments and the trade-offs required.
cer.eu
Thrilled to share my first-ever @dgap.org publication co-authored with Patrick Keller and @emilarchambault.bsky.social🎉 The key takeaway: US security guarantees should be a bonus for Europe, not its foundation. This is at the heart of why Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense
To Ensure Its Security, Europe Needs a Stronger Hand in NATO
Under Donald Trump, American national interests and NATO’s multilateral security commitments are not aligned. While Europe cannot – and should not – reject the United States, it must take ownership of...
dgap.org
Europeans spend the last days pretending that their deployment to Greenland was not against the US. Trump, as always, is sensing a weakness and will force them to come clean. I understand the diplomatic hesitation, but time for Europeans to make clear, unequivocal stance.
DER SPIEGEL@spiegel.de · 7mo agoDer US-Präsident will Grönland zu amerikanischem Staatsgebiet machen, entweder per Kaufvertrag oder mit militärischer Gewalt. Wer sich dem entgegenstellt, soll seinen Zorn zu spüren bekommen.
Who’s going to defend Greenland (assuming it wants to be defended)? Does the mutual solidarity clause apply to Greenland (and who decides about it)? verfassungsblog.de/greenland-an...
Greenland and US Annexation Threats
verfassungsblog.de
Official confirmation of German participation in European troop deployment to Greenland. First Bundeswehr soldiers to arrive tomorrow. 🇪🇺 / NATO solidarity in action.
Ich glaube aber, dass sich vor einer militärischen Eskalation, einer Intervention mit militärischen Mitteln, noch ganz viele andere Möglichkeiten ergeben", sagt @beckermax.bsky.social im "im Loop"-Podcast zu den 🇺🇸 Plänen bezüglich #Grönland. Von einem Deal bis zu einer Beeinflussung ... /1
The calls from America this weekend to "abolish the EU" are for one simple reason: the EU is the only thing that can keep European nation-states from becoming Russian or American vassals.
The US has declared rhetorical war on the EU
The calls from America this weekend to destroy the EU are revealing. They hate the union because it's the only thing that can keep European countries from being Russian or American vassals.
davekeating.substack.com
FCAS started out as a project to bring France and Germany together, but quickly turned into the opposite. This week, I tried to explain in *two* articles what is going on. For ECFR: 👇 For WPR: www.worldpoliticsreview.com/fcas-europe-...
The trouble with FCAS: Why Europe’s fighter jet project is not taking off
The disagreement over the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft system, FCAS, shows that when it comes to building a European defence industry, political will is not enough…
ecfr.eu
The "firewall" in the EU Parliament effectively no longer exists. Just this week we had several uses of the centre-right to far-right majority again. In our new op-ed for @zeit.de, Sophia Russack and I analyze this "Venezuela majority" and why the EP is becoming increasingly unpredictable:
DIE ZEIT@zeit.de · 8mo agoIm Europäischen Parlament stimmen die Konservativen mit rechts außen. Die Stabilität, auf der die Union basiert, wird so aufgegeben. Die politische Mitte zerlegt sich.
This statement highlights part of the problem of the EU's position on Ukraine and the 'Trump peace plan' - as first important achievement it stresses the efficient coordination amongst Europeans, and the resultiing unity. But intra-European coordination and unity are not an end to themselves.
Paula Pinho@chiefspokesperson.ec.europa.eu · 8mo agoStatement by President @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu following the EU leaders' meeting on Ukraine ↓ link.europa.eu/Hky37c
Neither a Russia nor a Ukraine expert (and at home with a sick kid) but everything I am reading about the Ukraine 'peace' plan reads as much as a capitulation for Ukraine as a capitulation for Europe. Grim, but also a last chance for Europeans to show their ability to say no to Trump.
Ruth Deyermond@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 9mo agoThe plan says that "A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States." This implies that both Russia and the Trump administration don't see the US as part of NATO in any real sense. That should deeply alarm every other NATO state.
Puts one of the fears of additional European defence spending into focus: Instead of spending in a more coordinated way, the additional funds incentivise industry towards more defence inflation and more protection of their national fiefdoms.
Frank Sauer@drfranksauer.bsky.social · 9mo ago»Another person close to the project said Dassault “simply doesn’t want to engage in a real partnership”. (...) “The feeling is ‘we have funds like we’ve never had before on defence’ so if we need to do it without the French let’s just do it,” said a person with knowledge of the thinking in Berlin.«
From the creeping integration of the far-right into the EPP seeking majorities on central EU policies with the far-right. bsky.app/profile/nvon...
euobserver — EU news that matters@euobserver.com · 9mo agoThe EPP could team up with the far right, including Germany’s AfD, in a vote that might redefine EU politics.
Over the summer, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wrote about the 'creeping integration of the far-right' into EU decision-making. Now it looks increasingly likely that this week a major part of the Omnibus package will be passed by an EPP-far-right majority.
The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe
Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not
swp-berlin.org
Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige. In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl. Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:
Frisch erschienen: Die Europawahl 2024 – Rechtsruck im Schatten des Krieges
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
foederalist.eu
By now a regular feature of policy-making in the European Parliament - the centre-right EPP at least threatening or actually voting with the far-right, which offers alternative majorities. This significantly moves EU policy to the right, and risks the pro-European majority of the centre.
Euractiv@euractiv.com · 10mo agoEPP ready to side with far right to strip back EU sustainability rules
Schrumpfen statt wachsen? Eine neue französische Regierung steht, und zwei Parteien aus der bisherigen Minderheitsregierung drohen auszusteigen, LR und UDI. Die Opposition kocht. Was ist passiert? Kurzfassung und Erklärungen im 🧵
In my substack EU-Analytics, I now do monthly reviews of EU voting in the EP and the Council. September 2025 edition is here, with a closer look at voting on Ukraine, overall EP changes - with another centre-right to far-right majority - and a surprise German vote in the Council:
EU Analytics - September 2025 review
With the far-right still split on Ukraine, the centre-right working with the far-right on Colombia, and a first Return of the “German Vote” under Merz
substack.com
Important analysis of the creeping shift to the right. Decisive factor will be Christian Democratic #EPP, writes @nvondarza.bsky.social Most important, EPP under Manfred Weber (CSU) has got the choice. His coalitions with the far-right are not a must. EPP could easily form majorities without them.
Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · 11mo agoHere is the full paper: English: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/... German: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/... Comments welcome!
The creeping integration of far right parties in 🇪🇺 within the last couple of years and the crucial role of the @eppgroup.bsky.social Give it a read 👇
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)@swp-berlin.org · 11mo agoThe influence of far-right parties in the EU is growing. Whether the Union can continue to rely on a pro-European camp depends above all on the EPP, write @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...
Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation": fiia.fi/en/publicati... Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe". I wish I'd been more wrong.
The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe
Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not
swp-berlin.org
Before last week, NATO's art. 4 had been activated seven times. Now it has been activated twice in less than ten days, by Poland over the drone incursions and Estonia over the air space by violation by Russian fighter jets.
The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com · 11mo ago⚡️Estonia asks NATO to activate Article 4 after Russian fighter jets violate airspace. Article 4 allows member states to call for discussions with allies if they believe their security is threatened. Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Sept. 19.
Der Einfluss von Rechtsaußenparteien in der EU wächst. Ob sich die Union weiterhin auf ein proeuropäisches Lager stützen kann, hängt v.a. von der EVP ab, schreiben @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa
Wo Rechtsaußenparteien in das EU-System eingebunden – und wo sie isoliert werden
swp-berlin.org
Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa: Nach den Europawahlen 2024 stellen sie 26 % der Abgeordneten im EP – und sind in 1/3 der Mitgliedstaaten an Regierungen beteiligt. Das neue @swp-berlin.org Aktuell von @nvondarza.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und mir 👇
Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa
Wo Rechtsaußenparteien in das EU-System eingebunden – und wo sie isoliert werden
swp-berlin.org
just going to leave this here from jon stewart accepting the mark twain prize in 2022:
Reminder that Putin has never said he wants a trilateral meeting, had never said he would respect Ukrainian sovereignty, and has never said he wants to end the war. Not to be a downer, but the discussion of security guarantees is premature.
New #EU Security and Defence Partnerships with 🇨🇦 , 🇳🇴 & 🇬🇧 – same framework, different depth. @johannaflach.bsky.social & @nvondarza.bsky.social compare scope, ambitions & political signalling. And what these new agreements reveal about Europe's evolving security architecture. Give it a read 👇
A tale of three partnerships - UK in a changing Europe
Johanna Flach and Nicolai von Ondarza explore the new EU security and defence partnerships with Canada, Norway and the UK.
ukandeu.ac.uk
Happy to see my first ever contribution to a book chapter published! If you’re interested in the fluidity of #EP Political Groups - give it a read 😌 Thanks to @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu, Michael Kaeding, @alexhoppe.bsky.social and @nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · last yr."A Fluid Parliament: Changes in the Composition of EP Political Groups Ahead and After the 2024 Elections", new analysis by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the changes in EP political groups before and after the 2024 EP elections. It covers all groups, with a special emphasis on the far-right:
Elections have consequences - and with the far-right groups now about 25% of elected representatives int he European Parliament, they are bound to take a more influential role in EU law-making:
Théophane Hartmann@theophane.euractiv.com · last yr.🇮🇹 far-right secures key legislative role on EU Space Act Speaking after her appointment, Elena Donazzan said the law must respect “national specificities” – a stance aligned with the Giorgia Meloni-led Italian government's earlier position. - @euractiv.com www.euractiv.com/section/tech...