More coverage of our analysis of the current #ElNiño model forecasts from last week's monthly climate briefing in @wired.com. We'll be tracking the progress of the current El Niño in the months to come...register now to receive invites to future briefings, along updates: ➡️ tinyurl.com/ys9s4932

The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record

This climate phenomenon could cause a massive global temperature spike and cause economic losses of $10 trillion by 2032.

wired.com

See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes? That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream). It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.

It's not quite "gobsmackingly bananas" but monster forecasts for the record El Nino brewing the Pacific Ocean get pretty close. Here's what to make of it in my first for @nature.com: 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/d41...

This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’

Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.

nature.com

Just under an hour left to register for today’s monthly briefing, where we’ll share findings from our June update, as well as the latest on the current “super” El Niño. Hope to see you there. Link to register: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Berkeley Earth@berkeleyearth.org · 3w ago

Summer 2026 is shaping up to be memorable, but the peak of the current El Niño cycle still lies ahead. Join us next week as @rarohde.bsky.social and @zekehausfather.com share updates from our June 2026 report, and outline what the rest of 2026 holds. Registration required ➡️ tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

The current El Niño cycle has officially entered "Super" territory, but the peak impacts are still months away. We'll be discussing updated model forecasts and what this means for the remainder of 2026 at our Monthly Climate Briefing this Thurs at 8amPDT/5pmCET. Join us: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Robert Rohde@rarohde.bsky.social · 2w ago

The seasonal forecast models continue to point towards an end of the year El Niño peak that would be the strongest ever recorded. Even the least extreme models are predicting a top-5 "Super" El Niño event.

Summer 2026 is shaping up to be memorable, but the peak of the current El Niño cycle still lies ahead. Join us next week as @rarohde.bsky.social and @zekehausfather.com share updates from our June 2026 report, and outline what the rest of 2026 holds. Registration required ➡️ tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.

With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....

We are excited to announce our new climate data platform: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth synthesis.berkeleyearth.org It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future. Introduction 🧵

We'll take that as a compliment 🙌 And note that "temperature" in this case includes projections at 5-year intervals for TAVG *and* TMAX for 8,000 global cities (TMIN soon), with metrics derived from daily simulations (CDD, HDD, Days >35C) for a select sample group. 👉 synthesis.berkeleyearth.org

Paul Voosen@voosen.me · last mo.

Very cool: @berkeleyearth.org has launched the beta of their Climate Model Synthesis, their attempt to make (better) downscaled bias-corrected climate projections broadly available. Right now it only does temperature, which is easier (but not easy). Precip to come. synthesis.berkeleyearth.org

"Glaringly obvious in the data..." Last week's EU heatwave shattered records, but the long-term signal is clear: Europe has been warming faster than the global average for decades. @hausfath.bsky.social on what the long-term data shows, in @nature.com. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate?

Nature asks researchers whether scorching summers are the new norm for London, Paris and Berlin.

nature.com

After 5 months of data, 2026 seems unlikely to set a new annual record...but with significant uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the emergent El Niño cycle, that outlook could change quickly over the next few months. More from our May 2026 Temp Update, now avail: tinyurl.com/6jxwabaa

Heat waves are driven by weather patterns but occur on the backdrop of a rapidly warming world. Without climate change the current European heat wave would have been ~3.2 °C (5.8 °F) cooler. Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering

Join us in a little less than an hour, as we discuss Europe's record-smashing #heatwave, and what the updated #ElNiño forecasts tell us about the outlook for the remainder of 2026. Open to all. Registration required: tinyurl.com/57nwt93d

Berkeley Earth@berkeleyearth.org · last mo.

Join us this Thursday: @rarohde.bsky.social on findings from our May 2026 temp update, @hausfath.bsky.social w/ updates on the El Niño outlook, and what current conditions, including the heat building across Europe, signal for the remainder of 2026. Open to all. To register: tinyurl.com/57nwt93d

Join us this Thursday: @rarohde.bsky.social on findings from our May 2026 temp update, @hausfath.bsky.social w/ updates on the El Niño outlook, and what current conditions, including the heat building across Europe, signal for the remainder of 2026. Open to all. To register: tinyurl.com/57nwt93d

A big congrats on everyone involved in this project. This is a fantastic resource 👏🏻👏🏻

Berkeley Earth@berkeleyearth.org · 2mo ago

From 1850-2100: next week we launch our next chapter with Synthesis, our new platform featuring: -> City-level projections through 2100 for 8000 global cities -> TMAX, Days >35C, and CDDs -> Our full station archive ...all in a single interface. Join us next Tuesday: tinyurl.com/ebt3ad7d

From 1850-2100: next week we launch our next chapter with Synthesis, our new platform featuring: -> City-level projections through 2100 for 8000 global cities -> TMAX, Days >35C, and CDDs -> Our full station archive ...all in a single interface. Join us next Tuesday: tinyurl.com/ebt3ad7d

Our 2026 Indicators of Global Climate Change paper is out! We find that the human-induced warming was 1.37C in 2025, and the current rate of warming is 0.27C per year, on track to firmly pass 1.5C in about four years: essd.copernicus.org/...

After 15 years building the world's leading independent temperature record, Berkeley Earth is extending it forward: next week we launch Synthesis, delivering city-level warming projections for 8,000+ cities worldwide (and more). Join us for our launch event next week ➡️ tinyurl.com/ebt3ad7d

History of El Niño and La Niña events since 1850 by applying the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to Berkeley Earth data. The strongest El Niños on this index are 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 1877/78. Forecasts suggest an El Niño at the end of 2026 could challenge the record.

Two things can be true: • RCP8.5 was never a realistic "business as usual" scenario • The world has made real progress bending the emissions curve down Glen Peters, Piers Forster, and I explain in a new article: www.theclimatebrink.... 1/11

On the death of RCP8.5

We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it

theclimatebrink.com

The March 2026 Western US heatwave shattered records, with roughly 30% of active US stations setting new monthly records. But it also may have revealed evidence of increasing temperature variability, not just a higher mean shift. Our complete analysis is now available: tinyurl.com/march2026hea...

A few new updates to my Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate... First, I've incorporated the ECMWF 46-day forecast (and its ensemble uncertainty) into the global mean surface temperature anomaly figure, so you can see both historical and forecast near-term temperatures.

I've updated my Climate Dashboard to provide a daily updating probabilistic ENSO forecast similar to NOAA's, using 637 ensemble members across 13 different models (weighted by unique model). Here are the current results using the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI): dashboard.theclimate...

The arc of the scenario universe is long, but it bends inevitably toward more realistic emissions. A new paper outlining the emissions scenarios we will be using in the upcoming IPCC AR7 report notes that "the CMIP6 high emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) have become implausible".

I've updated my 2026 and 2027 annual temperature forecasts in light of the strong El Nino forecast (and 2026 data to-date) over at the Climate Brink, as well as methodological changes for more robust uncertainties. Both are now higher than they were at the start of the year: www.theclimatebrink....

One frequently sees headlines that X is warming faster than the global average. That's true of nearly everywhere that humans live, but only because humans nearly all live on land. The process of global warming will generally warm land faster than the oceans.

If a strong El Niño develops in 2026 (quite likely now), the main effects on global temps will be in 2027. This is because there is historically a lag of about three months between when El Niño peaks (generally in Nov/Dec) and when the biggest effect occurs:

Starting in just under 15 minutes! Join us for a review of what was a very eventful March, including an in-depth review of our analysis of the remarkable Western US heatwave. See you there!

Berkeley Earth@berkeleyearth.org · 4mo ago

🌍 Join us for our March 2026 Monthly Press Briefing! Dr. @rarohde.bsky.social will present our latest global temperature findings, including an in-depth look at the recent West Coast heatwave. 📅 Thursday, April 23 ⏰ 8:00 AM PDT | 5:00 PM CET Register: tinyurl.com/mar2026press...

Can we stop worrying about the climate? This week, @marklynas.bsky.social speaks with climate scientist @hausfath.bsky.social about why the climate challenge remains serious, complex, and urgent. 🎙️ Listen below.