Bill Scher
@billscher.bsky.social
Politics Editor for @washingtonmonthly.com
AP calls it for AES x.com/ap_racecalls...
AP Race Calls (@AP_RaceCalls) on X
WASHINGTON (AP) — Abdul El-Sayed wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan. #APRaceCall at 9:54 a.m. EDT. https://t.co/TS3eIpQI5W
x.com
Bill Scher@billscher.bsky.social · 5h agoVoteHub now calling it for AES but I haven’t see a call from AP, NYT or CNN
VoteHub now calling it for AES but I haven’t see a call from AP, NYT or CNN
Bill Scher@billscher.bsky.social · 6h agoPosted shortly after morning vote drop
The main reason we have not called the race is that Detroit’s Election Day absentee ballots have not yet been reported. The pre-processed ballots often do not represent the full absentee vote, and Stevens could win the remaining ballots by a wide margin.
But did the flood of El-Sayed internals influence how other pollsters weighted their data?
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 8h agoFair enough, but the non-partisan polls of the races also did very poorly: - Emerson: El-Sayed +16 - Tavern: AES +10 - Glengariff: Stevens +7 - Mitchell: AES +14 Looks less like partisan pollsters rigging their data and more like a combination of late movement and biased samples across the board
From Zachary Donnini: “This is narrowing at a rapid rate and will come down to Wayne. Stevens is vastly outperforming expectations across a lot of whiter, less urban areas. El-Sayed exceeding his targets in Kent, Washtenaw, and Oakland. Stevens exceeding elsewhere.”
A Kansas ballot measure to change state Supreme Court justices from governor-appointed to popularly elected has failed (69–31% with 32% reporting). Republicans pushed the measure as a way to make the court more conservative.
A failure to understand basics of law and governance! Republicans were SO mad that the Congressional GOP could not stop Obama on the ACA & stimulus. This fueled the Tea Party. Same mentality. Doesn't help that when Dems DO succeed in blocking Trump, as on the SAVE Act, it's invisible to most. 1)
Bill Scher@billscher.bsky.social · yesterdayDemocratic voters are mad at their party leaders because why? washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/04/d...
Ds abandoning "establishment" who won't fight & gave us Biden bc why? * Trump < 40 * D GCB lead ≈ '18 * TX/IA/OH/AK/NC in play * R leg agenda/EOs stifled While * Zohran woos Trump * Warren scores bipartisan housing bill * Bernie/AOC stuck w/Biden My latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/04/d...
Democratic Voters Are Boiling Mad at the Democratic Establishment, and It’s Ridiculous
The opposition party is on an electoral roll yet is pilloried for not fighting Donald Trump hard enough.
washingtonmonthly.com
“Democratic Voters Are Boiling Mad at the Democratic Establishment, and It’s Ridiculous” My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/04/d...
washingtonmonthly.com
“It is particularly striking here that there is at least a level of organization around Count Binface” www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu5_...
Clacton by-election: Who are the front runners?
YouTube video by Sky News
youtube.com
! The House Ethics Committee says it's finished an investigation into Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and has "concluded there was substantial reason to believe Representative Edwards violated House Rules related to sexual harassment and hostile workplaces."
1) There are Babe Ruth truthers 2) There are Babe Ruth truthers in the MLB
Razzball@razzball.bsky.social · 2d agojust woke up to the Jays are buying at the deadline and Pete Crow-Armstrong thinks Babe Ruth was made-up
Huge incentive to push uncorroborated rumors on social media
Trump's Real Clear Politics job approval avg is at a 2nd-term low: 39.2% He has slid 7 pts from one year ago. His 1st-term nadir of 37.2% from Dec 15, 2017, but b/t that and the '18 midterm he gained 7 pts. (The rebound began with passage of tax cuts.) www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approv...
President Trump Job Approval | RealClearPolling
President Trump Job Approval | RealClearPolling
realclearpolling.com
“even progressive activists say privately they think the movement of these voters toward candidates like El-Sayed is less about a newfound acceptance of lefty policy platforms like single-payer health care and more about their anger with the Democratic establishment.” www.notus.org/2026-electio...
A Normie Democrat Revolt Is Pushing Abdul El-Sayed Toward Victory
“The only reasonable thing seems to be: Burn it down and start over, and make it different,” one Michigan organizer said.
notus.org
I am making no MI-SEN predictions but if there is to be a Stevens surprise it will likely be because the polls showing big El-Sayed leads got the turnout demos wrong. Some notable posts from a MI poli sci prof here
It’s fascinating where different people draw their red lines www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/u...
In Dropping Reflecting Pool Case, Pirro Draws Trump’s Wrath
Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, blamed shoddy construction, contradicting President Trump’s pet theory. Mr. Trump said he disagreed “100%” with her.
nytimes.com
“How Left Will Democrats Go In 2028? That Depends on 2026” My latest for @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social washingtonmonthly.com/2026/07/31/d...
How Left Will Democrats Go In 2028? That Depends on 2026
As Democratic primary voters are moving left, the success of progressive candidates in 2026 may determine how far Democrats go in 2028.
washingtonmonthly.com
Somehow I missed it yesterday that Fox News polling has a one-point race for Texas GOVERNOR www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Fox News Poll: GOP divisions shape Texas Senate race
Ken Paxton trails James Talarico by 3 points in the Texas Senate race as character concerns and a GOP unity gap reshape the 2026 midterm battle.
foxnews.com
CNN poll, 7/23-6, 321 Democratic respondents Do you think the following things would or would not significantly change the Democratic Party for the better? Moving to the left on policy issues, yes: 54% Moving to the center on policy issues, yes: 54% www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...
CNN July poll conducted by SSRS - Midterms, parties
CNN poll conducted by SSRS
documentcloud.org
🚨 Mandela Barnes drops out of the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, saying: “it’s become very clear who our nominee is gonna be.”
Crystal Ball House ratings update from @kkondik.bsky.social BEFORE 213 Safe-Lean R 207 Safe-Lean D 15 Toss up NOW 208 Safe-Lean R 207 Safe-Lean D 20 Toss up centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
WHITE El-Sayed 62 Stevens 32 BLACK Stevens 58 El-Sayed 28
Bill Scher@billscher.bsky.social · 6d agoEmerson College poll, MI-SEN Dem primary, July 26-7 OVERALL El-Sayed 54 Stevens 39 VOTERS UNDER 50 El-Sayed 67 Stevens 25 VOTERS 50-59 El-Sayed 52 Stevens 40 VOTERS 60+ Stevens 53 El-Sayed 39 emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-202...
