David Karol
@davidkarol.bsky.social
Govt & Politics prof, UMD. Billy Wilder fan. Has "Someone is wrong on the internet!" tendencies. Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides. No replies to anons. https://gvpt.umd.edu/faculty
Thanedar is the 11th incumbent member of Congress to lose renomination this cycle. That's the most for a non-redistricting cycle since 1948 (of course, this year is arguably a redistricting cycle too). centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
The story, unlike the headline,makes clear they actually dismissed two tenured profs, both of them full professors who had even served in administrative roles!
He Had Tenure. The New School Laid Him Off Anyway.
The professor, a longtime critic of the university, was among 19 educators who lost their positions as the institution navigated financial woes.
nytimes.com
Here are the last four polls released by the El-Sayed SuperPACs: El-Sayed +19 Zenith El-Sayed +19 Tulchin El-Sayed +13 Data for Progress El-Sayed +19 Tulchin
Simon Rosenberg@simonwdc.bsky.social · 16h agoHere's the last poll released by El-Sayed's SuperPAC. If the current results hold it was off by 14 points.
Update: El Sayed still leads, but no longer "winning big". Meanwhile, Bell has won big, with the race called by the authoritative AP. The broader point stands.
David Karol@davidkarol.bsky.social · 17h agoEl Sayed is winning big in Michigan. Meanwhile, Wesley Bell is winning big in his rematch with Cori Bush in St. Louis. Unlike in 2024, Bell is leads both in the suburbs and the city. So maybe not everything is about Israel, Palestinians or AIPAC, which opposed El Sayed, and backed Bell.
I think Harry Caray would approve.
CJ Fogler@cjzero.bsky.social · 16h agoCookie Monster's Take Me Out To The Ballgame
El Sayed is winning big in Michigan. Meanwhile, Wesley Bell is winning big in his rematch with Cori Bush in St. Louis. Unlike in 2024, Bell is leads both in the suburbs and the city. So maybe not everything is about Israel, Palestinians or AIPAC, which opposed El Sayed, and backed Bell.
Ça me fait toujours un peu grimacer lorsqu'on accole l'étiquette de "modérée" à Haley Stevens. Elle se situte +/- au centre du parti démocrate, ce qui fait d'elle une "libérale" (au sense US du terme). Ce n'est pas une "modérée" à la Sinema ou Manchin.
A failure to understand basics of law and governance! Republicans were SO mad that the Congressional GOP could not stop Obama on the ACA & stimulus. This fueled the Tea Party. Same mentality. Doesn't help that when Dems DO succeed in blocking Trump, as on the SAVE Act, it's invisible to most. 1)
Bill Scher@billscher.bsky.social · yesterdayDemocratic voters are mad at their party leaders because why? washingtonmonthly.com/2026/08/04/d...
The Bushes and Kennedys may be done, but that doesn't mean dynastic politics are.
The Downballot@the-downballot.com · last wk.Special election tonight for the vacant #GA13, previously held by the late Dem Rep. David Scott. His daughter, Marcye Scott, is running for this safely blue Atlanta-area seat. Question is whether she can avoid a runoff by winning a majority—she's at 50.2% at the moment.
Trump & his fans touted how many counties he won when he lost the popular vote twice, as if it was meaningful. (Most are rural and sparsely populated.) Interesting to see some left critics of Dems using the same talking point. 1)
Walker Bragman@walkerbragman.bsky.social · last wk.Just want to stress here that the Republican Party today controls a majority of local governments, county offices, state legislatures, governorships, state supreme courts, federal appellate courts, Congress, the Senate, and seats on SCOTUS. They also control the presidency.
Martin often undermines not unreasonable points with factual inaccuracies about the nomination process. Here's one: The DNC didn't do that. Democratic-controlled state governments across the South, acting within DNC rules for 1988, moved their contests to the earliest spot behind IA/NH. 1/
They had to improvise. But on broader process questions, note that a caucus-convention would probably have favored Platner MORE than a primary. Unlike Mills, he drew big crowds. He had some labor backing and in low-turnout caucuses enthusiasm+organization trump Bidenesque broad mild support. 1)
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 2w agoSomeone should do a poll of Maine voters asking about their faith/trust in the Democratic nominating process. Would help with understanding how Americans feel about alternative systems for nominee selection (& that are more common in multiparty democracies)
These Democratic Attorneys General have at least delayed the takeover of CNN until after the midterms.
The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com · 2w agoBreaking news: Paramount Skydance said that it had agreed to halt its merger with fellow Hollywood heavyweight Warner Bros. until as late as July 2027, citing a federal antitrust lawsuit brought by 12 Democratic states that had won a brief pause this week.
The Democratic Iowa Caucus was key for the unknown Jimmy Carter and quite important for Obama. The Republican one -which isn't being marginalized- arguably gave us the Bush Dynasty, since GHW's 1980 win set him up to be runner-up to and VP for Reagan.
Zeeshan Aleem@zeeshanaleem.bsky.social · 2w agoWow, new Democratic presidential primary schedule just dropped. First 3 - South Carolina, then Nevada, then Nevada. Iowa is gone from the early window. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
There are many "independent" voters and a much smaller percentage of real independents, but Independent doesn't consistently mean "centrist" or moderate, let alone Manchin's particular version of that. 1)
CNN@cnn.com · 2w agoAt 78, Joe Manchin is stepping back into politics. A year and a half after leaving office fed up with the major parties, the former West Virginia senator is launching a new effort, the Independent Leadership Council, to recruit and support independent candidates. https://cnn.it/4vSwY7x
There are real parallels! But electability arguments were made re Biden, even if we can't know if they were correct. Harris has many fans/people who think she did well considering, but I see few arguing that she'd be the strongest general election candidate, as opposed to maybe stronger than X.
Eric Michael Garcia@ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 2w agoKamala Harris being the frontrunner feels like Joe Biden being the Democratic frontrunner throughout much of 2017 through South Carolina 2020: Most pundits, fundraisers and activists don't want to admit it, but the actual voting base of the Democratic Party still likes her and will vote for her.
Right. If Gov. Beshear could somehow declare a vacancy and make it stick (how?), the result would be McConnell's looming successor, Andy Barr getting in office earlier via a special election and voting more consistently with Trump than a present McConnell, let alone an absent one.
Josh Chafetz@joshchafetz.bsky.social · 2w agoThis is in fact correct, which is why you’ll notice that no Senate Dems have been up in arms about McConnell’s absence.
It’s a small, insider thing but @HuffPost is reporting that neither Thune or Johnson put out a statement last night after the so called presidents wild ranting. For the 2 leaders not to react like this is almost unprecedented
Interestingly, Trump did very little in his speech to put pressure on Senate Republicans, whose refusal to nuke the filibuster is the key obstacle to this bill. He asked viewers to contact their Members of Congress, but it was very brief and he didn't explain that the filibuster was the issue.
The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com · 3w agoPresident Trump has demanded for months without success that Congress pass the Save America Act, a voting bill that he has claimed would “guarantee the midterms” for Republicans. Here’s what to know about the bill:
Yes, this isn't new. Political scientists Matt Baum& Sam Kernell wrote long ago about how since the rise of cable TV broadcast networks were increasingly reluctant to give prime time slots to Presidents for fear of losing audience. Those concerns have grown along with the number of viewing options.
Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social · 3w agoBesides airing the speech on NBC News NOW instead of on broadcast TV, NBC will also feature a special report after the speech to recap what the president said. Network sources noted there's precedent for this, as Obama, Biden and Bush I were also denied primetime airtime requests in midterm years.
Vance is strategic and can play the role of a traditional, respectful candidate. He debated Walz very differently from how Trump would have. But he seems to think defending this kind of thing is useful for him.
Josh Marshall@joshtpm.bsky.social · 3w agothe thing about these folks is that there's good comedy that is also really offensive. this is not good comedy. it's just not funny. also super offensive. but just not funny.
It's The Rockford Files. So presumably reboot doesn't open with answering machine messages... How David Boreanaz's New Reboot Of Classic NBC Detective Series Will Differ From The Original share.google/lhuIJ5KktAB3...
How David Boreanaz's New Reboot Of Classic NBC Detective Series Will Differ From The Original
The Rockford Files is getting a revamp.
share.google
Yes, we have no bananas! Cocaine,Dubai,Crypto...if there was only some podcast or reality show component this story would have everything.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 3w agoA 13-ton haul of cocaine disguised as bananas exposes alleged links between US financiers, luxury Dubai real estate and a crypto-trading Irish fintech. Read more: bloom.bg/4gyzmfH 📷: Jorge Guerrero/AFP
Key question is if, as Chairman, Lee honors the blue-slip procedure that has given Democratic senators influence over home-state judicial and US Attorney nominations even in this Congress.
Connor Ewing@cmewing.bsky.social · 3w agoWrite a horror story in 6 words. I’ll go first: Mike Lee’ll be Judiciary Committee chairman.
There was a custom of appointing a senator's widow. Huey Long helped one, Hattie Caraway, win a full term. His wife then succeeded him when he was assassinated. Maureen Neuberger replaced her husband Richard. Muriel replaced Hubert Humphrey. Maryon replaced Jim Allen. But it's been a while.
Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · 3w agoCHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) — South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appoints Lindsey Graham’s sister to serve remainder of his Senate term.
SO MANY things that were already deep into reruns by my childhood and seemed eternal have just disappeared, even if they're streamable. My students still know of I Love Lucy, but The Honeymooners, which remained relevant enough for Eddie Murphy to riff off of in the 1980s? Never heard of it.
Philip Bump@pbump.com · 4w agoIt has come to my attention that most people under the age of like 30 don’t know what Rocky and Bullwinkle is.
Wait seriously y'all haven't watched The Candidate? C'mon. Absolutely much-watch if you're even a slight political junkie. Get to it, folks. Easily a top-10 all-time political junkie movie, even 50+ years out.
Ed Thorndike@weswingsguy.bsky.social · 4w agoDeep cut
This is a very old story about party asymmetry studied recently by @davehopkins.bsky.social and @mattgrossmann.bsky.social. "I don't belong to any organized political faith. I am a Democrat." was Will Rogers in the 1930s. GOP has some important divisions, but has always been more homogenous.
Josh Marshall@joshtpm.bsky.social · 4w agoWhy the Democratic Party Has No ‘Base’ and Why That Matters talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/why-t...
Interesting thread, but flawed chronology. Platner was recruited in July, when it wasn't clear Mills would run, though Schumer wanted her. Platner announced in August, she did in October. The left factionalists recruiting Platner weren't reacting to a Mills candidacy that hadn't even happened yet.
Angus Johnston@angus.bsky.social · 4w agoDevastating NYT review of the many massive failures of the Platner campaign. And it makes clear once again that the Schumer intervention on behalf of Mills is what made it possible—in a robust multicandidate race, he would have been toast.