Birgit Bujard

@birgitbujard.bsky.social

Political Scientist, mostly UK and EU politics

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Striking fact about the Makerfield election: left-right divide has barely budged in the last three GEs (7 years). Lab+LD+Green have gained 53-56 per cent of the votes each time; Con+Ref+Restore 43-47. All the action has been voter movements within each tribe. (Table from @peterkellner.bsky.social)

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With the final results of the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections published, the overall percentage of seats won by pro-independence parties has reached 47%. It is the highest percentage ever since the creation of the Welsh parliament in 1999.

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61% of Britons say that Brexit has been a failure - who do they hold responsible? Conservatives: 88% Boris Johnson: 84% Nigel Farage: 67% Theresa May: 66% Rishi Sunak: 64% Labour: 39% EU: 37% Civil service: 30% Keir Starmer: 28% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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NEW: Net migration for year ending June is 672,000 Nearly a record high. Up compared to last June, down a bit compared to December’s estimate. Deeply uncomfortable for a govt whose promise has been to suppress both legal & illegal migration (though prefers to talk of latter).

Cowley's rule of by-election analysis is that if a party wins a constituency by 5, 50 or 500 votes, the political lesson and significance should essentially be the same as if they lose it by 5, 50 or 500 - yet it won't be.

Yes, EU relations are going to be crucial for UK growth. But also for regulatory policy, immigration, foreign policy, energy, Northern Ireland, most likely skills. Already is. And any UK government will be hobbled that can't admit this. As the current one is.

Well it has been a few months since the UK government threatened to breach the Northern Ireland Protocol / Windsor Framework so this extract from Politico's evening newsletter comes as little surprise...

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