And I would add that an attritional and punitive strategy is extremely symmetrical relative to Iran’s own attritional and punitive strategy. Iran is calculating that their attritional and punitive strategy will burn out the US first.

Dr. Jonathan Schroden@jjschroden.bsky.social · 2d ago

The fact that the stated goal of the solicited ideas is to "pressure and punish Iran" further goes to show what I've been saying all along: this admin sees the path to victory purely in attritional and punitive terms. 1/2

Red Sea update: Bab el-Mandeb transits have halved rather than stopped, Yanbu crude is rerouting through Egypt to buyers from the Baltic to the US Gulf, and the empty tankers willing to sail back in will decide how long the reshuffle holds.-Kpler

Today in @cimsec.bsky.social: "The Curious Rise of Military Bullshit,"by Colonel Benjamin Gray of the Australian Army. This is a phenomenal piece that lays bare the perverse trend within military culture to hide lazy thinking with complicated language. Read it here: cimsec.org/the-curious-...

NEW | CTP’s @nicholasacarl.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social assess risks and opportunities for the US in Iran in their latest report, “The State of the Axis of Resistance.” Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the... Here are their key points: (1/3)

The State of the Axis of Resistance: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for the United States

criticalthreats.org

My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...

Alawite Insurgents Seek to Use Sectarian Violence to Destabilize the Interim Government in Syria

criticalthreats.org

The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...

One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else

The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...

Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation - Shafaq News

Shafaq News/ On Thursday, Iraq called on countries worldwide to repatriate their nationals from Syria’s Al-Hol camp. Speaking at a meeting at the United Nations headquarters in Iraq, National Securit

shafaq.com

New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3) www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one. Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture. www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...

Israel fears sharing intelligence with U.S. due to Trump's rapprochement with Putin

NBC reports that Washington's allies are considering reducing the intelligence they share with the US as its relations with Moscow warm; The concern is that the identity of foreign assets could be acc...

ynetnews.com

This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?

MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar022825

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump held a contentious meeting at the White House on February 28. Zelensky observed that Russia has repeatedly violated previous ceasefire agreements, as ISW has reported. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar022825

ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains. ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

criticalthreats.org

An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:

Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last yr.

ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains. ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

criticalthreats.org

CTP-ISW’s Middle East Team is shifting to a 5-day coverage schedule with a focus on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen in response to the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵

The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest

The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally. @liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵

Israel has diminished the strategic threat of Hezbollah and secured a ceasefire that ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well. @briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵

The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US. The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

UNIFIL says 122-mm rockets struck its Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers. unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-state...

My team @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social's latest on the Israeli op in Lebanon. The Israelis began by disrupting Hezbollah's ops and org before exploiting Hezbollah's disruption to destroy the group's capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. isw.pub/LebanonCampaign

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2y ago

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) campaign into Lebanon is degrading Hezbollah and destroying its military capabilities and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Read more in our Special Report: Understanding Israel’s Campaign to Defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon isw.pub/LebanonCampaign

Beginning my Bluesky journey sharing my latest in the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in May upended the political status quo in Tehran and triggered an impromptu reshaping of the Iranian political landscape. www.hudson.org/politics-gov...

Political Transition in Post-Raisi Iran

The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 upended the political status quo in Iran and created new uncertainty about where the country is headed. In many ways, Raisi was a...

hudson.org

Fantastic thread going over Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. claims targeting Merkavas since 10/7.

Elmustek@elmustek.bsky.social · 2y ago

So since the first Merkava was destroyed in Gaza, i want to give you a small update on where we stand with the Israel Lists rework We have worked through all the Videos we could find from 23.08.2024 until 19.11.2023.

Seems like a good time to re-up my recent piece for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social, specifically forecasting the impacts of the Russia-North Korea relationship as they apply to the Korean Peninsula and wider Asia Pacific region ⬇️ www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2y ago

North Korea reportedly continues to provide military support to Russia including the provision of rocket and artillery systems and potential additional troop deployments, which is likely to impact Russia's military operations in the short term, but its long-term benefits likely remain limited. (1/4)

Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.

Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons program but not yet decided to build a weapon. This assessment with @thestudyofwar.bsky.social is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian activity at the Parchin Military Complex, which Israel struck on October 25.

NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Iran Update w @criticalthreats.bsky.social: isw.pub/IranUpdate11... More ⏬(1/5)