The Budget Lab
@budgetlab.bsky.social
The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.
@natasharsarin.bsky.social joined @npr.org “Marketplace” host @kairyssdal.bsky.social to talk about the economic implications of declining immigration. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...
Immigration to the U.S. has steeply declined. The economic impact will last decades
“I worry about the longer-term consequences here,” said Natasha Sarin, president and co-founder or the Yale Budget Lab. “Importantly, they're not consequences that can be reversed.”
marketplace.org
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused widespread disruption in oil markets, raising U.S. oil prices by about $25 per barrel. What might this mean for the U.S. economy? Read the new @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/wha...
What Are the Macroeconomic Implications of Recent Turmoil in Oil Markets?
budgetlab.yale.edu
Webinar on Monday, February 9 at 12:10pm ET. "Tariffs, AI, and Our Economic Futures: Lessons Learned in the First Year of the Administration and What Lies Ahead." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, I got to work on some of my favorite things: Sports, Booze, and Taxes.
@budgetlab.bsky.social analysis is cited in Thomas Edsall's @nytimes.com column "Why the 'Affordability Hoax' Is a Trap for Trump." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/o...
Opinion | Why the ‘Affordability Hoax’ Is a Trap for Trump
nytimes.com
Today. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7
New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
The Budget Lab@budgetlab.bsky.social · 11mo agoJoin us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi... Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published. In brief... 1/10
Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi... Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...
The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty
budgetlab.yale.edu
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We: • incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares; • show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026. In brief... 1/12
@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...
Opinion | Trump vs. the U.S. Economy
nytimes.com
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10
Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
The next wave of Trump tariffs are expected to go into effect on Friday
NPR speaks with Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, about trade deals and tariffs ahead of a Friday deadline imposed by President Trump.
npr.org
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10
Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...
Distributional Effects of Selected Provisions of the House and Senate Reconciliation Bills
budgetlab.yale.edu
tony romm@tonyromm.bsky.social · last yr.NEW: The just-passed Senate Republican package is much better for the rich than the poor. Any gains from lower taxes may be wiped out from the loss of Medicaid, food stamps and more. Some Republicans looked to exempt their own states from the cuts. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/b...
