Carried Interest has been a talking point in tax policy for at least 20 years. It is often viewed as a loophole that if closed would bring in revenue. At the @budgetlab.bsky.social we revisited the revenue implications of carried interest proposals with new tools.

trump blasts democrats for voting against his "big beautiful bill" which kicked 10 million people of their health insurance, took food away from literal children, and supercharged ice and cbp - all while giving enormous tax cuts to the rich. below is a graph showing winners/losers from the bill.

With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, I got to work on some of my favorite things: Sports, Booze, and Taxes.

Elena Patel of @brookings.edu Rural counties with closer access to post offices consistently have higher levels of small-business activity, with the strongest relationships concentrated in sectors that account for a large share of rural self-employment. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

The postal network as economic infrastructure: Evidence from rural small businesses | Brookings

Elena Patel explains research highlighting the importance of the U.S. postal service in small business activity in rural communities.

brookings.edu

We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.

New analysis out from @budgetlab.bsky.social. A look at the Senate Finance version of the reconciliation bill. We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...

The Financial Cost of the Senate Budget Bill’s Tax Provisions

budgetlab.yale.edu

Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7

Hey gang- we at @budgetlab.bsky.social did some work on the Ways & Means text this week: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...

Budgetary Effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill (Preliminary)

budgetlab.yale.edu

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

International Tax is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social did our best to explain the current state of international taxation and how revenue to the US would change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…

On 4/9, join us for a conversation about DOGE & the administrative state, featuring former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Tax Law Center experts including former OMB Director Shalanda Young and professors @lilybatch.bsky.social & @davidkamin.bsky.social taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...

NYU Law Forum | The DOGE Era: Impoundment, Data Privacy, and the Administrative State

Join the NYU Law Forum for a conversation about DOGE and the administrative state, including impoundment and data privacy issues. The conversation will feature Former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally A...

taxlawcenter.org

New @budgetlab.bsky.social report today featured in @politico.com Weekly Tax. “Policy changes aimed at limiting buy-borrow-die are a natural place for reform in the current tax code” www.politico.com/newsletters/...

What can technology replace?

The Trump administration — and Elon Musk’s DOGE — seems quite seriously to believe that increased and improved technology and automation can lead to a significantly slimmer workforce at the IRS.

politico.com

Important new work from my @budgetlab.bsky.social colleagues Harris Eppsteiner & John Ricco on the House budget resolution. Neutral illustrative policies consistent w/ committee deficit targets suggest the proposed tax + spending cuts are regressive: they benefit the top & hurt the bottom. 1/3

As long time NPB follower, I found this on target and informative. www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...

MLB is trying to expand in Japan. Can Japan's NPB grow in America?

nytimes.com

There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social

My group at @budgetlab.bsky.social has some good work out this morning on IRS funding and the forgone revenue of the IRS cuts the workforce by 50K workers: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rev...

The Revenue and Distributional Effects of IRS Funding

budgetlab.yale.edu

In 2020, Kim Ng made history by becoming the first woman to be hired as a MLB general manager. Miami's record improved every year under Ng, culminating with a 2023 season which saw the Marlins win their most games since 2009. #WomensHistoryMonth

This week, the Trump Admin is planning to implement 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as well as an add'l 10% tariff on China. This would come on top of the 10% China tariff already put in place on Feb 1. @budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem 1/8

Here’s some cool analysis my colleagues did on tariffs: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of Illustrative “Reciprocal” US Tariffs

budgetlab.yale.edu

Prominent Cryptocurrency Investor Faces Senate Tax Inquiry www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/t...

Prominent Cryptocurrency Investor Faces Senate Tax Inquiry (Gift Article)

The Finance Committee’s top Democrat sent a letter last month to Dan Morehead, the founder of Pantera Capital, about the investigation.

nytimes.com

My students have used this data in their senior research papers to show there is a gender-wage gap across a host of college majors.

Pam Herd@pamherd.bsky.social · last yr.

Reminder that ipums.org has all the acs, census, CPS, NHIS, MEPS, and so much more. Bonus that it’s cleaned and harmonized in ways that make these data really easy to use in practice.

BTW, long before Elon Musk moved to DC, the US Treasury was using machine ;earning and AI to ferret out fraud. Saved $4 billion in FY2024 (October 2024 Treasury release.) home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Ron Johnson: "Tariffs are a tax. When you tax something, you get less of it, so we'll probably get fewer imports, but then with retaliation, fewer experts. Smoot-Hawley was not particularly successful and helped sparked the Depression, so I share the markets' concern."

The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

A 25 Percent Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports Would Reduce Consumers’ Average After-Tax Income by 1 Percent

taxpolicycenter.org

For no reason whatsoever, reupping Budget Lab’s research on how political risk is economic risk - and how markets haven’t been pricing in the rise in political risks budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

Here’s a working link for the full analysis: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...

Budgetary Dynamics of Depreciation Policy: Options for Reform

budgetlab.yale.edu

Rich Prisinzano@richpriz.bsky.social · 2y ago

Hey gang- I’ve got an op-ed in The Hill today about depreciation as a budget gimmick: thehill.com/opinion/fina... The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…

Hey gang- I’ve got an op-ed in The Hill today about depreciation as a budget gimmick: thehill.com/opinion/fina... The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…

@budgetlab.bsky.social is now on Bluesky! This new nonpartisan center will be a critical part of the federal economic policy ecosystem going forward. I'm a bit biased - I was briefly involved as an RA before it had a name - but I think they're a must-follow for anyone interested in the US economy.

In light of recent NIPA revisions, in today's projections CBO upgraded real potential GDP by 0.8% in 2025 Q1 and by 1.5% in 2034 Q4 versus its June 2024 projections.

If start with high enough rev disparity, can’t gain much by even “high” CBT. And like any limit, some will find it pays to break it. But it does suppress player wage. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...

Record 9 MLB teams docked $311M in luxury tax

The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees were the highest penalized among the record nine teams to be over the MLB's luxury tax threshold for 2024.

espn.com