Carlos Odio
@carlosodio.bsky.social
Co-founder, Equis Research. Miamian living in New Jersey. Not a pollster I just poll a lot.
A total rout in the Miami mayoral, in a race that had been highly nationalized (Trump endorsed the loser). The Dem (Higgins) over-performed 2024 presidential in predominantly Cuban (+8), non-Cuban Hispanic (+9), Black (+9), and White (+11) precincts-- over-performance across the board.
Latest @EquisResearch memo on the state of play with Latino voters after the ‘25 elections, a level-set after the NJ/VA/CA swings, featuring new polling www.weareequis.us/research/lat...
Latino State of Play: 2025 Elections and New Equis Polling | Equis Research
Survey conducted 10/15 – 10/29 via phones and text-to-web with 2000 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally. The sample included an oversample in the following pooled competiti...
weareequis.us
On what we can actually learn about Hispanic and Latino voters from Tuesday's elections, with @carlosodio.bsky.social: www.vox.com/politics/467...
Republicans may have a Latino problem (again)
What New Jersey can teach the parties about Latino voters.
vox.com
In NJ-09, one of the state’s most-watched CDs, Sherrill way over-performed 2024 support in the densest Hispanic precincts. Given recent past, it is reasonable to expect that 2025, not 2024, is the proper benchmark for 2026. That’s a big boost for incumbent Nellie Pou.
Here’s Passaic County now, preliminarily. Sherrill support closely tracks Murphy ‘21 in Hispanic precincts, way outperforming Harris there. Turnout is lower in Hispanic areas, per usual for Passaic, but less notable in 2025 than in 2021.
Update: safe to say that Trump discontent isn't a polling mirage. Partial end-of-night #s have Sherrill coming in at around '21 levels in key Hispanic cities in NJ: in aggregate, higher than '20/'24, but lower than '16/'17. The tape is rewound a bit heading into '26.
Carlos Odio@carlosodio.bsky.social · 11mo agoNJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers? Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
NJ election is the first real measure of Latino support since last year. A test of whether the Trump discontent in polls is re-shaping behavior heading into '26: will Sherrill come in closer to '21 or '24 in Hispanic bellwethers? Here are cities to watch. Note '24 vs. prior.
New national polling of Latinos out today from the Equis team in partnership w/ @dataforprogress.org : views on Trump’s economic moves, what they most want to see now, & how it shapes their views of the parties — & their vote in 2026. Memo & toplines here: www.weareequis.us/research/202...
July 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and the Economy | Equis Research
This memo summarizes key findings from a national poll of 1,614 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from July 7 to 17, 2025. This poll has a margin of error of ± 2 pp.
weareequis.us
Full memo and toplines here: www.weareequis.us/research/may...
May 2025 Poll on Latinos, Trump and Immigration | Equis Research
Some insights from a national poll of 2,545 registered Hispanic voters, conducted with Data for Progress from April 16 to May 5.
weareequis.us
Carlos Odio@carlosodio.bsky.social · last yr.New Equis polling out today, our first public release this year.
Our first clean look at Latino voting post-2024
Juan Machado@juan-machado.bsky.social · 2y agoIn WI special, Crawford outperformed Harris more in majority Hispanic precincts than elsewhere in MKE. But turnout in those areas was also lower. Another sign that Trump’s strength seems to lie with Latinos who don’t who up in these kinds of elections?
Tip of the day for avoiding Trump’s traps Don’t knock him for doing things differently, knock him for doing them poorly. Distinguish between shaking things up and fucking things up.
Found this one very compelling: “universalism” (cosmopolitan) vs. “particularism” (traditionalist) as an update to post-materialism, explaining trends across class, education & urbanicity. (They point to the rise of knowledge economies.) Also assign prominent role to candidates & group identities.
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 2y agoNew Cambridge Element 'Cleavage Formation in the 21st Century' by Simon Bornschier, @lhaffert.bsky.social, @siljahausermann.bsky.social, Marco Steenberge & @dpzollinger.bsky.social out now! Read #OpenAccess here: cup.org/3ZLtQ0o #cambridgeelements #politics
The piece is well-written. The problem is that in dismantling a one-dimensional approach (Latinos only care about immig), it threatens to replace it w/ another (“” are no diff on immig). Can’t understand Latino vote past or present w/o unpacking the unique cross-pressures created by this issue.
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 2y agoGreat piece from Rogé Karma on how Dems misread Latino opinion on immigration, and ended up shifting far to the left of where most voters were www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv... The theory shows up clear as day in the data 👇
Rule #1 for side-stepping Trump’s favorite traps: Don’t let him draw you into defending the wrong things. No need to defend: red tape, fentanyl smugglers, the military industrial complex, the status quo generally Do defend: consumers, workers, families, real people generally
@mikemadrid.bsky.social @carlosodio.bsky.social deliver a master class discussion on what just happened re the Latino vote. Spoiler: it’s not what you think happened. Learn and pass it on. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Path Forward: Rebuilding Latino Support | The Latino Vote Episode 64 - Featuring Carlos Odio
Podcast Episode · The Latino Vote · 11/15/2024 · 53m
podcasts.apple.com
Fortunately, orgs like Young Men Research Initiative have done extensive analysis of where persuadable voters get their news. Hint: they don't think of it as news, rather as funny and interesting content that keeps their ears busy at work youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/where-do-d...
Where Do Dems Go From Here: Should They Go on Rogan, Build Their Own or Aim Policy Proposals at Young Men
Hint: It's all of the above
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
Daniel Malmer@malmer.com · 2y ago"Carville: I’m pretty limited to the media consumption survey. I’m pretty limited right now to how people get their news, which I don’t know…" Thousands upon thousands of studies about this. The fact that someone in Carville's position thinks he has to reinvent the wheel isn't great.
This one breaks my heart. There is wishful thinking here. But also rational calculation based on past experience (see: enforcement of DeSantis immigration law). And there’s what came to be understood on campaign trail (Vance: “we start with the criminal migrants”), w/o pushback from Harris campaign.
“It’s not fair” — the sentiment at the heart of things, from those frustrated by broken immigration promises Great @propublica.org piece t.co/0ic8u6oGNm
Update: cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV) allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot. Overall, 5.8% of Trump voters went for Rosen, 5.5% went "none of the above" or 3rd party, and 1% skipped. (And there was more splitting in Latino precincts...)
Carlos Odio@carlosodio.bsky.social · 2y agoEarly look at cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV), which allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot: overall, 6% of Trump voters went for Rosen, to 4% who skipped the race. The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
Nice analysis here of the Latino vote in 2024 from @carlosodio.bsky.social www.weareequis.us/research/pre...
A Preliminary Look at the 2024 Latino Vote | Equis Research
weareequis.us
Who wants some precinct charts? Here's a partial roundup of precinct-level analysis by the brilliant Equis duo of @juan-machado.bsky.social & Javier Rodriguez.
bsky.app
Early look at cast vote records (CVR) in Washoe (NV), which allow us to see the choices voters made on the whole ballot: overall, 6% of Trump voters went for Rosen, to 4% who skipped the race. The chart shows Trump voters in Latino precincts were the most likely to either ticket-split or roll-off.
Clark County, NV...at long last Harris under-performed Biden across the board but most, seemingly, in densely Hispanic precincts. A large drop two prez cycles in a row. Rosen (like Gallego in AZ) came short of Biden '20 levels but out-performed Harris — most in the heaviest Latino areas.
Would include this interview with Ruben Gallego in a starter kit for any discussion of the path forward. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Ruben Gallego has a blueprint to win Latino men. Will Democrats listen?
Gallego won his Senate race in a battleground state that Donald Trump flipped and will become the first Latino to represent Arizona in the upper chamber of Congress. He did so, he says, in large part ...
washingtonpost.com
Careful in drawing statewide conclusions from our precinct analysis. For starters, Latinos don't all live in densely Hispanic areas. Only 22% of Latino voters in Maricopa live in majority-Hispanic precincts. In Lehigh (PA), it's 33%. They tell a story, but it's only ever part of the story.
