Chris Gloninger

@climatechris.bsky.social

Meteorologist and Senior Climate Scientist Climate and weather 24/7.

Meteorologists have been talking about this all summer. Every month this year, the El Niño forecast has gone up. Not sideways. Up. Every single revision. Because these models forecast El Niño on an ocean that no longer matches the one they were built on.

Every plane crash starts with a plane taking off. At some point you ask what happened in between. Arson explains the ignition in Spokane. It doesn't explain 45 mph gusts, a fire jumping the river, or 640 structures gone in one night. That's fire behavior. And fire behavior is fuel moisture.

Exxon made $14.5B last quarter - about $160 million a day. Chevron posted its best quarter ever. Twelve billion-dollar weather disasters hit the US through June. $31B in damage. At least 183 dead. Two companies, one quarter, $26.6B. Nearly six months of disasters.

The Southwest just had its hottest first six months since 1895. It didn't break the record - it broke it by two degrees. Every month above normal. You probably didn't hear about it. We cover heat waves, but we don't cover heat. One has pictures and the other just kills people.

France just ran its largest evacuation since WWII. Not for a war. For a wildfire. The rain didn't change. No trend in western Europe's spring rainfall. What changed is how hard warmer air pulls water back out of the ground. Those conditions: ~80x more likely.

Nobody at the beach is watching for the actual threat. A swimmer in Falmouth was hospitalized last August. Not a shark. A flesh-eating bacteria that only needs warm salt water, in an ocean that used to be too cold for it. Ten cases a year on this coast in the late eighties. Eighty by 2018.

Guadalupe at Comfort went 5 ft to 37 ft in about three hours this morning. Major flood stage is 28. Same river that killed 139 people last July 4th. A thousand-year flood is 0.1% odds in any given year. Not a countdown. Twice in twelve months isn't a miracle. It's a broken assumption. #floods

The man Trump just put in charge of America's official climate report isn't a climate scientist. He studies rocks. He's called climate research "stamp collecting." He mocked a death threat against me as "the ultimate gift." The government announced it by misspelling his name. Meet Matt Wielicki.

The man Trump just put in charge of America's official climate report isn't a climate scientist. He studies rocks. He's called climate research "stamp collecting." He mocked a death threat against me as "the ultimate gift." The government announced it by misspelling his name. Meet Matt Wielicki.

Meet the new head of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Matthew Wielicki isn't a climate scientist. His research is dating rocks and impact craters. He's shared fabricated "AI peer-reviewed" climate papers, & mocked the death threat I received in Iowa as "the ultimate gift."

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