Just Another Weather Nerd

@cyclogenesis.bsky.social

Scientist

Most importantly, not only was this the 7th wettest july on record, we got the overwhelming majority of our rain in THREE events. I will be on @wbez.org tomorrow to chat with (the yet to be on @bsky.app ) Sasha-Ann Simons (produced by @mehaahmad.bsky.social ). 9:05am. Tune in. Geek out.

WTTW - Chicago PBS@wttw.bsky.social · 2d ago

A pair of storms on the front and back ends of July made for a wetter month than normal, according to a National Weather Service summary. https://to.wttw.com/4g8zK3E

Wow.. made a quip about needing to be on drugs to understand book three of Dune (God Emperor of Dune, its pretty trippy and dense)... All of a sudden Meta clamps down my account... Yeah, the same place which is full of misogyny et al.. All AI automated of course.. sheesh!

Milestones reached in 26 World Cup: First World Cup: Cabo Verde, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Curacao. First World Cup Goal: Uzbekistan, Jordan, Curacao, DR Congo, Cabo Verde First World Cup Point: Cabo Verde, DR Congo, Canada, Qatar, Curacao First World Cup win: Canada

To George and Laura, Bill and Hillary — we're grateful for your friendship, counsel, and devotion to this country. And to Joe and Jill, thank you for being on this journey with us.

Bild

Here are some probability outlook maps for variables like wind, hail, and tornados. FYI I'm just an amateur weather nerd, and know where to find this data so I can share it. As always, check in with real meteorologists you trust for up to date info through the day.

Severe Weather Outlook:
NOAA places the Chicago area in Moderate (Level 4 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Thursday, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.Severe Wind Outlook: The Chicago area has a 60-74% chance of severe hail within 25 miles of any one point with the highest hail threat focused west and southwest of the city.Severe Hail Outlook:
The Chicago area has a 15–29% chance of severe hail within 25 miles Thursday, with the highest hail threat focused west and southwest of the city.Tornado Outlook:  Chicago is located in the yellow shaded area indicating a 10-14% probability of a tornado within 25 miles. The probability of tornadoes is higher to the west of the city.

RCP and SSP scenarios are not emission scenarios. I repeat: they are not emission scenarios. They are radiative forcing scenarios. Forcing = human emissions + the response of the climate system to those emissions You can only back out emissions by making assumptions about climate sensitivity.